Opinion(s): Thoughts & A “Muck Pit” Sighting, or 2

(Sovereignty / Photo by Holly M. Smith)

(Trainer Bob Baffert / Photo by Coady Media)

Editor’s Note:

Now that we have managed to navigate our way through another Triple Crown series — which could have been a coronation of another Triple Crown winner — it is time to rev up the emotional engine once again and renew our official “Opinions” section and the often-requested “Muck Pit.”

(I must admit, though, that those asking for the return of the “Muck Pit,” are the same people that are reasonably sure their names have very little chance to ending up in the “spreader.” LOL.)

So, we will endeavor to drop a few “Lines of the Opine” on you here today, and regularly in the days and weeks to come. We hope you find the thoughts compelling, thought-provoking, somewhat accurate, and entertaining. If you disagree, feel free to express your doubts and alternative thoughts. Most of all, though, we hope you read.

Here we go…

Sovereignty the “Next Secretariat?”

There is no doubt now — none, zero, nada — that after his overpowering win in the G3 Belmont Stakes on Saturday, Sovereignty is the newest supreme powerhouse racehorse in the entire land.

None.

Zero.

Nada.

He is the best 3YO, to be sure.

He very well may be the best Thoroughbred. Period.

I don’t know why it took some skeptics, that may be better referred to as heretics, so long to recognize brilliance. Or, at the very least, the brilliance of Sovereignty. After I witnessed this horse’s performance in the G3 Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs in 2024, I knew in my soul that this horse had the talent to develop into one of the game’s best. Just knew it. He came from last that day and circled the field to blow every other contender away, and, really, blow my mind.

It was the reason I began this year, in my Kentucky Derby rankings, with Sovereignty in the No. 1 position.

It was the reason I touted him heavily to win the G3 Fountain of Youth, even at odds of 3-1.

It was the reason that I never wavered, even after the loss to the highly-skilled Tappan Street in the G1 Florida Derby — a race over a speed-favoriting track without any real speed to run into.

And, it was the reason that I screamed from every mountain top and into every microphone I could find leading up to this year’s Kentucky Derby that Sovereignty is one special horse and was the main horse to bet on the first Saturday in May. Hammer time.

On Saturday, Sovereignty was back — after his connections made him skip the G1 Preakness Stakes. For some strange reason, the betting public made him a lukewarm second choice, behind Preakness winner Journalism, and nearly the third betting favorite behind Baeza, too.

But, on Saturday, Sovereignty proved who was No. 1. He was back. All the way back, and more. The stunning son of the great stallion Into Mischief left little doubt in the 11/4-mile Belmont Stakes, held at Saratoga, as to whom was the best.

Despite the claims from all over the world that the heavy rains would compromise his late run; that the Saratoga dirt track was routinely favoring the speedsters in nearly every race; and that Rodriquez was the only true speedster in the field, and he could spring the upset, too?

Sovereignty and rider, Jurnior Alvarado, made their own pace; carved out their own race; and dominated their own place in history.

Could Sovereignty have won the Triple Crown if his owners from Godolphin had elected to run him back?

Sure. I don’t think there’s any doubt. Especially after the ride that Umberto Rispoli put on Journalism in that misguided affair.

Should Sovereignty have won the Triple Crown?

Maybe.

But I will never doubt the judgment of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who is, without any question, one of the best to ever saddle and tighten the girth on a Thoroughbred. The man worked for the great horseman Jack Van Berg, at one time, as both an exercise rider, and, later, as an assistant trainer. And, like another former exercise rider for Van Berg has always told me:

“You had better learn to gallop one before you learn to train one.”

Mott learned how to gallop one for the hard-ass wise man Van Berg, who never tolerated complacency or ineptitude lightly.

Mott learned how to train one, too.

Bill Mott learned his lessons well.

He won the Eclipse Award for most outstanding trainer in 1995, 1996, 2011 and 2013. He trained one of the game’s best in Cigar, an amazing win machine. He was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1998 at the age of 45 — becoming the youngest trainer to ever be bestowed that prestigious honor.

He probably should have won other trainer Awards simple for what he did with Cody’s Wish, who won two straight Breeders’ Cup events, too.

But now, at the age of 71, Bill Mott may be standing on the cusp of such greatness that few in our sport have ever achieved. He may be standing on sacred ground.

The truth is simple:

One, eventually, could make the argument and prediction that Sovereignty could become one of the very best Thoroughbreds of all time. Like top 5. Or top 3. Or top 2.

In fact, I think I will make that prediction right now. Matter of factly, too.

If Sovereignty can go on to win the Travers Stakes — a Stakes that Mott has never won, to date — and the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year, he will run past the accomplishments of both American Pharoah and Justify — the last two Triple Crown winners — like he did Journalism on Saturday. With ease.

If Sovereignty can accomplish both of those feats in style and with the same type of ease, professionalism,  endurance and versatility that he displayed in the Belmont Stakes? I think he surpasses the great, incomparable, as some would call, Cigar and the newest superstar of our age, too, in Flightline.

If Sovereignty’s connections — the great Godolphin — were to elect and run Sovereignty back as a 4YO and even try him on the sod — which he should have the ability to do well, what with his pedigree — then Soverignty’s all-time status in the great history of our industry would compare favorably with the legendary super-horse Secretariat. After all, Sovereignty’s second dam — the multiple Graded Stakes winner Mushka — did run over the grass 11 times and had a record of 2-2-2. She was third on the sod in the G2 Dance Smartly Stakes at Woodbine, although she won the G1 Spinster Stakes and ran 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic in 2009 on the dirt.

Yep.

That Secretariat.

Big talk. Big prizes. But achievable targets.

And, if the horse is able to climb those hills and jump those rails, then the man who has guided him every stride along the way should be skyrocketed to the top of the list, as well.

There should be a G1 at Saratoga named for Bill Mott.

There should be a bronze statue raised at Belmont.

There should be a gold star placed on his tack room at Churchill Downs.

The dynamic duo — Sovereignty and Mott — deserve no less.

Dept of Just Saying…

Muck Pit Numbers…

Baffert’s Graded Stakes Numbers — Outside of California & the Land of 5-Horse Fields — Have Plummeted Since Medina Spirit:

This year, the embattled trainer Bob Baffert — who once was the golden, white-haired child of the industry — has run a couple of horses in the Triple Crown races.

After the scratch of Rodriguez, due to a foot issue just a few days before the big race, Baffert laced up 2YO Champ Citizen Bull for this year’s 151st Kentucky Derby. Despite a rude beginning and a torrid first half of a mile, “The Bull” ended up 15th in the Derby. He came back to run a non-threatening 4th in the G1 Woody Stephens on Saturday when Baffert waved the white flat flag and decided not to try another endurance effort.

On Saturday, Baffert subbed in Rodriguez, the easy winner of this year’s Wood Memorial. As things turned out, he ran a non-threatening and distant 4th after making the pace and pushing it for much of the race.

Going back to the day where the ill-fated Medina Spirit turned up with a positive test result after winning the Kentucky Derby, and was subsequently disqualified and led to a ban from Churchill Downs for Baffert, “Babbling Bob” has now amassed the following statistics outside of California — according to my good friends and number crunchers over at Horseracingnation.com:

Since May 8, 2021, overall Bob Baffert is 28 for 106 outside of California.