|Day Results||12 / 4-4-6|
|2020 Overall 281||281 / 98-91-110|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.88%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.47%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –175-281||62.28%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Winter-Sprng 166-267||62.18%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Winter-Spring 94-267||35.21%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Winter-Spring 40-10-10-8||25.00% Win / 70.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 41-11-10-8||26.83% Win / 70.73% ITM|
We had an OK betting day at Turfway Park last Saturday.
Remember last Saturday?
It wasn’t that long ago, but so much has happened since then.
So very much.
Here’s a hint to jog the memory cells:
That was the day when the Jeff Ruby Steaks was held for the horses, riders, trainers and owners — only.
That was the day that Field Pass passed all the other horses to win the Jeff Ruby.
And, that was the day that the actual Jeff Ruby steaks — which were reserved for the fans that weren’t allowed to attend — were later shipped to Nashville and graciously given to food pantries.
Remember last Saturday?
Well, we are back. And, ready for another week of racing action.
Here’s a look at our picks for Thursday night:
1st: 2-1-6/9-5/7-4-3/8…Looktheotherway (2) lost to our second choice last time out, and this one has not won a race since November of 2019. But the 6YO Arizona-bred does have a nice profile that figures prominently in this spot for me. She returns as a beaten favorite and the barn has a winner in 2 tries at this angle. Ran well there two back and in 6 starts over this AW surface, this mare has a 1-2-1 mark. Gets a new rider tonight, and he is coming off a nice Saturday. Love the fact that this one does have a 8-4-4 record in 23 tries overall on the wax. My pick. Trickizar (1) won the last two by nearly 10 lengths — combined. Really good right now, and seems to cherish this AW surface. Barn is having a solid meet here this Winter, with a 9-6-4 mark in 49 races. This rider has won with .17% of the last 18 rides for the barn operator. Will be coming very late. Needs racing room. Kickin Kimberly (6) is a 5YO mare that I would recommend (highly) in using. She was claimed last time out for just $5,000, but the new barn operator hits with .21% of those that are making the first start for the new connections. Has won the last two here by a combined 141/4 lengths. Domination. Moves up in class, but the barn is winning at a .28% rate in 29 starts here this meet. Beware. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 9-5 in two smaller units.
2nd: 8-7-2/5-10/1-6-1A-9…My top 3 selections in this race will all be making their career debuts tonight. I will give the slight edge to Never Forget Her (8). This 3YO No Nay Never filly will be starting for the first time, but does come from a dam that has 1 winner from 1 starter. Goes for a barn operator who win with .29% of those making the debut. Gets a rider who has won .57% of the 14 mounts for this barn this meet. Wow. Got a maintenance move here on March 10. Look for this one to be ready to rock. Toots (7) is a roommate of our top pick. Dam of this one has 2 winners from 2 starters and has already produced a SW. Trainer has gone 4-3-1 in the last 10 starts, and this looks like a prime spot for the trainer to knock, knock, knock of Heaven’s Door, yet again. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 8-7 over/under the 2-5-10-1-6 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7/4-5-6/10-1-9…My first Key Play of the Night comes right here with Gladtobehere (7). This 6YO gelded son of Super Saver looks much, much the best on paper. He is coming off a win here on Feb. 6. Ran off to a 23-length win that night. That is 23 lengths. Not 2 or 3. That’s is Twenty. As in Three. And, that was the 2nd win here this meet. In 7 lifetime runs over this AW surface, this guy has a 3-1-2 record. Loves it here. I look for another monster performance tonight. I bet the 7 to win/place and then key the 7 over/under the “all button.”
4th: 5/12-4-1/2-3-1A-11/10…Pupetta (5) is the second Key Play of the Night, and this 3YO Giant’s Causeway filly comes from the same barn as our “Key Play” in the last race. This well-bred filly is a first timer and has been worked well for the debut run. Comes from a dam that has 2 winners from 2 starters and the jockey has a 3-1-1 record in the last 5 mounts for this barn. Don’t know how much punch this one really has. Works indicate some talent. But the pool is not very deep for his swim. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under the “all button” here, too.
5th: 7-8-10/2-6-9-11/4…Hey Negrita (7) goes for a barn that has had a terrific meet. The trainer has a 12-3-11 record in 51 starts and the win % is now North of .24%. This one was claimed three starts ago. Nearly won coming from behind last time out. Had to wait, wait, wait in the upper stretch of that one or could have been another winner for this trainer. If this 5YO mare can get a cleaner trip tonight — with a new rider up — then watch the heck out. Rolling late. Heaven Escape (8) won here on Feb. 22 by a whopping 81/4 lengths. Now, this 5YO Stormy Atlantic mare loses that condition and faces tougher in this spot. But this one is a stalker and that run pattern has done very well over this track of late. Look for this one to be a tough out, if she can get a clean push in the final turn. Tickle (10) is a 3YO Distorted Humor filly and she moves up to face winners for the first time. Since getting the Lasix, three starts ago, this one has never missed the board. Has a nice late kick to her run style, too. Gets the meet’s leading rider back in the irons. Don’t dismiss this one. I bet the 7-10 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 7-10 over/under the 8-2-6-9-11 in two smaller units.
6th: 4-3/6-7-5-2-1/8…Tallestofthetall (4) gets a huge drop in class after facing much tougher here on Feb. 20. Made up some ground in the final stages of that one, but this 4YO should fit better with these kind. Huge work here on March 14. Gets a rider who has won with .28% of the 32 rides for this barn this meet. Can speed from the gate. Can close late. Love the “Z” pattern. Watch out. Echo Alpha Six (3) has run over this track 4 times. Has 2 seconds and a third. Nearly won here last time out at this same level. Had a nice work here on March 6, too. Second best for me. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-3 in one solid exacta. I will key the 4-3 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.
7th: 5-7/(14)-4-(13)/6-9-2-11/1-12-3…Kitten’s Cat (5) comes from the barn of trainer Mike Maker, who is certainly in the running for this meet’s Trainer’s Title. This 6YO son of Kitten’s Joy has won nearly $500,000 in the race career. Came with a late run to be 5th in a Stakes her back in January. Had some trouble in the last out, too, against much tougher. Now, this one gets the huge class drop, and enters tonight’s event as a beaten favorite. Trainer wins with .23% of those kind returning to the oval. Has worked very well here since the last race. Very well. My pick. Horse Doctor (7) has never missed the board in 4 career starts, to date. Trainer has no wins in 10 starts this meet. But…does have 4 seconds. This one came late in the last race over the sod at the Fair Grounds. If he can stay a little closer to the main action, he should be a tough out in the final strides. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-7 in one solid exacta. I will key the 5-7 over/under the 14-4-13-6-9-2-11 in two smaller units.
8th: 5-7/8-11/2-9-1/6-12…The finale looks a lot like the 7th. Same numbers, in fact. Hey Hey (5) nearly won here last time out on Feb. 29. In 11 career starts over the AW now, this one has only 1 win. But does have 3 seconds and 2 thirds. Has been facing some tougher ones up in Illinois. Gets one of the meet’s top riders to return to the irons. Poised. Don’t Stop Maria (7) goes for a barn operator who has a 9-6-2 record in 38 saddle jobs. That a win % of over .24%. Will make the huge class drop to the bargain bin for the first time. Class level should fit this one perfectly. Don’t dismiss here. Huge chance, IMO. I bet the 5-7 across the board and then box these two solidly in the exacta. I will key the 5-7 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene
(Picks and Comments to Come Shortly)