|Day Results||8 / 2-3-4|
|2020 Overall 1732||1732 / 617-593-760|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.62%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.91%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,123-1,732||64.84%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP 41-66||62.12%|
|Top Selections Win / TP 26-66||39.39%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 11-4-0-1||36.36% Win / 45.45% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 242-88-48-33||36.36% Win / 69.83% ITM|
We start a new week up at the “new and improved” Turfway Park tonight, and what a nice card has been assembled by the expert team of track management and horsemen, alike. Fun card awaits. Let’s pounce.
Here’s our looks:
1st: 6-2/1-3-4/7-5…Holly Go Lightly (6) returns tonight after having run a solid second at this same level last time out on Dec. 3. Made a nice run at the eventual winner, just was 2nd best that night. Barn has a 1-3-0 record in 4 starts this meet and has won with .26% of the 27 starts this year. Gets the “bug jockey” back up and the light weight can’t hurt. Looks well spotted for this one. Little Skiff (2) will make the 2nd start for the new barn operation here. Worked well until she spit the bit in the last one. Drops considerably in class and the barn wins with .17% of those making the 2nd start. The shorter distance may help, too. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-2 in one exacta. I will key the 6-2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two shorter units.
2nd: 6-7/(13)-(14)-8/11-10/9-4-1/2-3-12…Conoloway (6) is owned by one of Louisville’s most respected and like people — Thomas Conway. Drops from the $50,000 level all the way to the $15,00 price tag tonight and gets a new trainer for the first time. Look for a huge move forward against this class. Dolci (7) ran a credible race last time out when out at Del Mar. Temps are a little cooler tonight, and the likes are a little easier, too. Gets a top rider for the assignments. Chance. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-7 sternly in one exacta. I will key the 6-7 over/under the 13-14-8-11-10-9-4-1 in two smaller units.
3rd: 3-2/4-6/5-7-8-12-(13)/9-11/10-1…Cardiac Kitten (3) gets the huge class drop here for a barn that wins with .41% when dropping this much at once. Trainer winning at a .31% clip this meet, too. Looks to be the one to beat, but will need racing room and luck late. Fever (2) has 2 wins and a second in 6 career starts and will be making the 2nd start off a claim purchase. Barn wins with .21% of those kind. Big shot. I bet the 3-2 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exacta. I will key the 3-2 over/under the 4-6-5-7-8-12-13 in two smaller units.
4th: 6-8-(14)/2-4-5/1-7-12/3-9/10-11…The “6” is my “key number” of the night. Here’s my third one in the first four races. Perfectly Majestic (6) drops a bit in class after a nice run up at Indy Grand in the last outing. Has experience over the AW and gets an apprentice in the saddle. Weight allowance does NOT hurt any. Look for this one to come running at the wire. Christians City (8) was a solid second at this level last time out on Dec. 2. Has speed. Will be the one to catch. May get a bit salty on the front. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta — no matter who makes the gate. I will key the 6 over/under the 8-14-2-4-5-1-7-12 in two smaller units.
5th: 5-1-8/6-4-(14)-(13)-10/3-2-7-12…Into Vanishing (5) goes for a barn that finally broke through and got a win here last week. This one is a 2YO filly by Into Mischief and is coming out of two straight 3rd place finishes. Works are super good here. This one is my first Key Play of the Day. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 5 over/under the 1-8-6-4-14-14-10-3 in two smaller units.
6th: 2-1-5/8-4/3-6-9/7…Super Patriotic (2) drops in class for this event and goes for a hot trainer/jockey combo, who have teamed up to go 2-1-1 in the last 7 races together. This one has hit the board in each of the last 5 starts and 7 of the last 8. Looks powerful in this spot. Queen Bridget (1) has been away since running a disappoint effort in the G3 Delaware Oaks last time out. Will need to come running at the end of this one. Madame Overserved (5) ran a huge one two races ago and the barn wins with .25% when switching from the dirt to the AW surfaces…and that’s with 83 runners. Gets a rider who has won with .38% of the mount this meet. Works are spot on. Threat. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 2-5 over/under the 1-8-4-3-6-9 in two smaller units.
7th: 7-8-9/1/4-6/2-3…Jen Take Charge (7) was no match in the last one, but that was against much better. Goes to the AW for the first time and that could help, too. In 8 starts over the sod, this 4YO Lemon Drop Kid filly has a 1-2-2 mark. Could convert here nicely. Noble Alma (8) has won only once in 14 career starts, but has 5 seconds and 3 thirds on the resume. Comes into this one off a 2nd against lesser. But could fit under. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 and then key the 7 over/under all the rest in two smaller units.
8th: 1/7-9/5-2-11-(14)…The last race of the night is my second Key Play of the Night, too. I will go with Naughty Mable (1), who’s goes to the barn of Mike Maker for the first time and goes to the lowest price point ever. This one ran a nice second at Woodbine two starts ago and now has a brilliant work over this track on Dec. 5. Owner is a top bloodstock agent and this one has a pedigree that is certain to attract attention at the claim box. Probably a shake for this one tonight. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas — more with the 7-9 than the rest.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene