|Total Day Results||8 / 1-3-3|
|2021 Overall 276||276 / 86-92-103|
|Win % of Top Pick||31.16%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||33.94%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 168-276||60.87%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 105-172||61.05%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 55-172||31.98%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 25 / 12-3-3||48.00% Win / 72.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 38 / 21-7-3||55.26% Win / 81.58% ITM|
A chilly start to a warm-up week at the “new and improved” Turfway Park on Wednesday night. Brrrr on the handicapping. Nice on the temps.
Only managed one winner out of the 8 races carded. Did nab 4 exactas that returned the likes of $34.80, $4.80, $15.50 and $21.20 for each $1 wager correctly. Hope you had more than the minimum invested. But missed on the first leg of our Pick 5 effort. Hate when that happens.
Yet, we are back tonight. And, we are optimistic that a change in fortune is about to descend upon us like manta from the heavens. Well, that may be a bit over-stated. LOL. Let’s have some fun. Let’s win some races. And, it doesn’t hurt to make a little $ along the way.
Here’s our looks for tonight:
1st: 11-5-2/7-10-8/4-(14)/6-9-3…Sequaya (11) is a 5YO Fort Larned mare that is trained by the same man that conditioned the sire — all the way to a Breeders’ Cup Classic win. Drops to the bargain bin for this one tonight, and the barn wins with .33% of those that drop this much in class. Gets the high-class son-in-law to pilot this one. And, the last time out, this mare ran 2nd against much better at Churchill Downs. Has now run 4 seconds in the last 5 races. Only time not runner-up? A win. Look for this one to be tough here tonight. Destiny’s Darling (5) goes for a barn that claimed this one just two starts ago. Has run against much, much tougher in each of those last two. Not much of a threat in either. Goes to the bargain rack tonight and the barn wins with .27% on the 2nd start for the new operation, and with .23% in the third try off a layup. Should be better against the likes of these. Barn having a super nice meet, too. Bow Maker (2) will make a similar class plunge here tonight, as well. Barn wins with .25% of the last 83 to drop this much in one swoop. Has a win in two previous tries here and the only previous time this one was offered up for this price tag? Won by 61/2 lengths. Wow. Threat. I bet the 11-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 11-2 over/under the 5-7-10-8-4 in two smaller units.
Pick 5: 11-5-2-7-10-8/3/11-3/5-6/3-1-7…$.50-cent ticket will cost $36.
2nd: 3-5/9-6-2/10-7-4…Next Time You Win (3) will make the 2nd career start here tonight after almost winning at this same level in the debut here on Feb. 4. Comes from the high-powered barn of trainer Brad Cox and should benefit from the first exercise, which ended up just a neck short of the winner’s circle. Likely a claim prospect tonight on the stretch out. Barn wins with .27% when routing for the first time. Wins with .28% when going from a sprint to a route. Has the credentials to be a single. Faded Rose (5) comes from the high-powered barn of trainer Wesley Ward. This one drops to half the asking price of the last outing. Ran well in that one off an extended layup. Will stretch out tonight, as well, and that may not be what this daughter of Munnings is hunting for. Has faded in both of the two previous outings at the sprint distance. Interesting concept. Comes from a Stakes-winning mare, though, and is training quite well. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 numbers sternly in the exacta. I key the 3-5 over (only) the 9-6-2-10 in a smaller unit.
3rd: 11-3/10-5-8/2-4/6-9-7…Midway Mischief (11) catches another outside post position and that makes three in a row. But this 3YO son of Into Mischief should be getting used to it by now. Has run two very nice races here in the previous outings. Returns as a beaten favorite here and the barn wins with .24% of those. Work here on Feb. 25 was nice, too. Gets a new rider who is making a real name during this meet. In 171 mounts, has 29 wins, 20 seconds and 17 thirds. Threat. Be Here (3) is a first time starter for trainer Jonathan Thomas, who is winning at a .45% clip here this meet in 20 starts. Picks up his go-to rider for this one and they have teamed up to win .75% of the 8 races they have been in together. Wow numbers. Wow. Dam of this one has a winner from 2 starters and the barn wins with .31% over the AW surface. Sharp, sharp work here on Feb. 25, too. Watch out. I bet the 11-3 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. Sternly. I will key the 11-3 over/under the 10-5-8-2-4 in two smaller units.
4th: 5-6/4-10-11/3-12-2-8/1-7…Screenwriter (5) gets a considerable drop from one of the best young trainers — and better people — in the game today. After a bit of a chilly start to the meet, this barn is heating up nicely. In 19 starts overall, has a 3-1-2 mark. This could be another trip to the circle tonight. This 6YO mare drops from the starter allowance ranks to the $15,000 level here and over the last six races? This one has 4 seconds and two close-up 4ths. Could be real salty at this price tag. Europa (6) has a chance to upset the cart a bit. This one goes for a top barn operation, who has found the winner’s circle a bit elusive this winter. But the barn wins with .27% on the first start after a claim purchase and with .33% when dropping in class off the claim. Gets a hot rider for the journey. Chance. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-6 in the exacta. I will key the 5-6 over/under the 4-10-11-3-12-2-8 in two smaller units.
5th: 3-1-7/12-11-4/(14)-9/2-10/5-6/8-(13)…King of Miami (3) is a first time gelding, who will be getting the Lasix for the first time, too. And, this 3YO son of American Pharoah comes from the barn of Wesley Ward, who wins with .29% of his 55 starts here this meet. If that is not enough new stuff? Gets the blinkers for the first time, too, and the barn wins with .11% of those. Has run two solid races at Belmont and Saratoga last summer. Off since. But the barn can win off the bench — .22% when away this long. Works are solid. Watch out. Alpine Ghost (1) is a first-time starter from the Brad Cox barn. That makes this one an immediate contender. Dam has 7 winners from 8 starters and 1 Stakes winner. And? This one working very nicely up at KEE, too. Watch out II. Jerry’s Secret (7) nearly had a win here on debut on Feb. 5. Led late in the proceedings and headed at the wire. Returns tonight and should benefit from the first attempt. Watch out III. I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 3-1 over/under the 7-12-11-4-9 in two smaller units.
6th: 9-11-12/7-5/1-3-10-6/8-(14)-(13)/4-2…Perfectly Majestic (9) was claimed last time out and the new barn operator wins with .38% when making the new trainer debut. Won the last time out at this same level. Came with a late rush to do that — by a nose. Gets a new rider here, but the new barn wins with .25% when trying to repeat in the claiming ranks. Could do it again. Drink (11) is my first “Longshot Special of the Night.” This 5YO son of Stay Thirsty was claimed last time out for $5,000. Came up empty in the stretch in that one, but gets a new rider tonight and he is known for finishing strong. Also, returns as a beaten favorite, and the new barn wins with .22% of those kind. Look out here at a price. I’m in. Volubile (12) is another longshot possible. This one comes from the barn of Tommy Drury, who is one of the best young trainers in the game today. Barn none. Bar none. I give him a shot here with a barn newcomer. Trainer wins with .30% when he gets a new horse. I bet the 11-12 (take note) across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 11-12 over/under the 9-7-5-1-3-10-6 in two smaller units. Good betting race.
7th: 9-8-11/6-3/10-1-2/7-4…Madame Overserved (9) goes for a red-hot barn. Anything that this outfit puts the tack on? Contender. this one is no different. Ran a huge one here on Dec. 17. Just missed at the wire. Gets a new rider tonight, and he has won with .38% of the 8 previous rides for this barn. Working great. Well-bred mare. Adds up for me. Pop a Choc (8) has not run very well in the last two, but gets a new rider here and comes up from New Orleans to try the new Tapeta surface. Could be a ship-in threat here for a rider who has won with .33% of the last 12 mounts for this barn. Southern Mama (11) breaks from the far outside, but has the style to either stalk or rally. Veteran rider takes the reins tonight. Could mean the difference. Threat. I bet the 9-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-3 in two smaller units.
8th: 9-(13)-11/4-5-7/1-8…Inheritthewind (9) gets the nod in the finale. This 7YO gelded son of Tapit has been a grinder. Has won over $102,000 in 26 starts and has a 3-5-2 record. Connections paid just $25,000 for him in 2018. Has two thirds and a second in the last three starts. All of those here. Looks to be sitting on a win — even thought the trainer is 0-33 this meet. Hmmm. Top Hat Voyager (13) is a real threat, if he draws in from the AE List. Consider. Kearny County (11) was 2nd here last time out. Gets a new rider for this one. Interesting. But a chance. I bet the 9-13 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers. I will key the 9-13 over/under the 13-4-5-7-1-8 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene