|Total Day Results||9 / 3-2-4|
|2021 Overall 472||472 / 162-162-187|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.32%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.09%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 289-472||61.23%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / KEE 28-38||73.68%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / KEE 17-38||44.74%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 6 2-3-0||33.33% Win / 83.33% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 75 / 34-17-4||45.33% Win / 73.33% ITM|
We rolled out to a very aggressive and positive start on Thursday, and then puttered into idle mode for much of the rest of the day. Won three of the first four. Went 0-for-5 coming home. Sigh.
We did manage to coach home 5 exactas out of the 9 races, but the only one worth chirping about came in the finale, when we cashed a $28.30 payout for every $1 played correctly.
A wee better than Wednesday, but still not what we are hunting for at the Spring Meet in Lexington. Hoping for more on Friday and the upcoming weekend.
Here’s our looks:
1st: 6-2/4-3-1/5…Epicurean (6) is the 9-5 favorite in the Brisnet.com ML (the only place you need to go for all your handicapping tools and needs). And, this 3YO filly by Speightster looks like the most favored nation in here. Ran a good one coming off the 6-month layup last time out. Tired at the end of the 6-furlong effort at GP on March 10. But returns here as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .32% of those kind. Will get the Lasix for the 2nd time, and this trainer wins with .25% of those. And? Drops from the $50,000 tag to the $40,000 level here. Barn wins with .26% on the second try off the layup and is winning at a whopping .44% this meet. Adds up. Doesn’t it? Pi Yo Princess (2) drops into the claiming ranks for the first time for a clever and top barn operation. Spots them nicely throughout the year. Has worked super since coming North out of Louisiana and has talent to either stalk or rally late. Look for a top effort here. I bet the 6-2 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exacta. I will key the 6-2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two shorter units.
2nd: 7-2-4/1-6/3-5…Maybe Later (7) ran a big one at nearly 22-to-1 odds last time out at the Fair Grounds for a highly-underrated trainer. This one worked lights out at Churchill Downs on April 5 and this 3YO daughter of Not This Time should be cranked and ready to go. Gets a familiar rider in the irons and could have the perfect stalking position from the outside post. Like this one. White Winged Dove (2) ran a good one in the NA debut last June. Has not been out since then, but has been training well up at Fair Hill for a top conditioner. Will be coming late, and if she is fit enough? Could be a late surprise at the wire. Kizzy B (4) has raced 8 times in the career and is still looking or the first win. But this 4YO daughter of Ghostzapper does have 4 seconds and a third on the resume. Came off an 11-month layup to run 3rd at the FG on March 4. That was over the turf. May improve with the stretch out to the route and with the return to the dirt, too. Would not be a surprise. I bet the 7-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1-6 in two smaller units.
3rd: 8-3/4-6-10/5-9/11-7/1-2…Absam (8) is still looking for the inaugural trip to the winner’s circle after 7 races on the career. Does have a couple of 2nds and they both came when the rains washed the races off the turf course at the Fair Grounds this past winter. In three tries over the sod, this one has yet to finish in the Top 3. But the pedigree is there, and a new rider jumps on board today with a .35% win rate this meet after 23 mounts. Could finally find the right spot here. Seminole Beach (3) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 3YO son of Ghostzapper has never been on the grass and the barn only wins with .07% of those that try the sod for the first time. But this one ran huge two starts ago and four starts ago. Every other race seems to be a good one. If that pattern holds, this should be his turn to post a good one. Like his chances here. I bet the 8-3 across the board and then box these two in the exacta. I will key the 8-3 over/under the 4-6-10-5-9-11-7 in two smaller units.
4th: 1-4-12/10-8-7/3-2-6…Bernadette the Jet (1) is a 4YO daughter of American Pharoah and another looking for the first win. Is a deep closer and needs racing luck, it seems, but she drops from the MSW ranks to the $30,000 level here. Barn wins with a whopping .27% when making this drop, and that is with a sample size of 56. The rider choice is very interesting. Has not gotten a mount here this meet. Hmmm. Ollie’s Gold (4) is a first timer for the barn of Wesley Ward, who wins with .31% when making the debut in the MCL ranks. Dam of this one has a winner from one starter and the breeding suits this sprint distance to a “T.” Sharp work and a top rider gets the assignment. Like this one. Let’s Take It Izzy (12) is another first time starter and the barn has won with .22% of the last 331 starters. I don’t know much about this outfit, but the works are spot on and the rider is winning at a .45% clip after the first 20 mounts this meet. Chance, based on the pilot alone. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 12-10-8-7-3-2 in two smaller units.
5th: (1A)-1-2/3-5/11-10-7/6-4/9-8-12-2B…The 2nd turf event of the day, and this one will be contested at the two-turn distance of 11/16-miles. If the race is moved off the sod to the main track, I go strong with the MTO entry — American West (1A). This is a 3YO Curlin filly, who will be getting the Lasix for the first time. Has a win and a 2nd in only two tries. It is unlikely that this one gets washed off, though, and as a result, I will revert to the other part of the entry — Editor at Large (1). This is the other one from the barn of Chad Brown, and this one has a world of grass talent. Only time off the board came in the last start — the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Was 7th that day, but had a troubled trip. Been off since that November trip. Working good and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. up. He has won with .32% of the last 19 trips for this barn. Stunning Princess (2) moves up after breaking the MSW last time out. Goes for the barn of Danny Gargan, who has won with .27% of his last 253 starts. This one really liked the blinkers last time out. Could pop again when facing winners for the first time. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-2 sternly in the exacta. I will key the 1-2 over/under the 3-5-11-10-7-6-4 in two smaller units. More with the 3-5 than the rest.
6th: 1-4/5-6/2-3…Movie Moxy (1) caught a wet-fast dirt track last time out in the first trip off a 3-month rest. Didn’t like it. It was the first time in 7 starts that this filly has missed the board. Look for a return to glory here with a return to the rider who has done the best with her. Work here was spot on. Maiden (4) may be the one to beat. She was picked up from the Mark Hennig barn before the last outing. Lost to our top pick in that one. But this one should be much better here with the addition of blinkers for the first time. Take note. Barn wins with .23% when getting the shades on. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box these two solidly in the exacta. In fact, I bet the 4 to win/place another time, too. I will key the 1-4 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed in a smaller unit.
7th: 8-9-7/6-3/11-10-12-1/5-4-13…Limestone Turf Sprint Stakes…This 5.5-furlong speciality race is a toss up. Literally. Figuratively. Wide open. Campanelle (8) is an Irish-bred from the barn of Wesley Ward, who does well in this category. This one has not races since finishing 4th in the Breeders’Cup Juvenile fillies Turf here last Fall. Tired when racing at the 1 mile distance for the first time, but still held her own against the “Champ” — Aunt Pearl. Returns today at the better distance. Working good. Classy type and top rider. Could be a standout here. Goin’ Good (9) is my second “Longshot Special of the Day.” This one is listed at 8-1 in the ML and could be a tough out. Ran 2nd over the slop in the Dixie Belle Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 28. Won the race before that over the turf at the Fair Grounds. Has speed. But can stalk, too. Love this one here. Toby’s Heart (7) ran two super races over the sod at the 5.5 furlong distance before being stretched out to 11/16-miles last time out in the G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes at GP. Now, shortens up again. Barn wins with .20% on the 2nd try off the layup and the route should have given this one some fitness. Dam is a SW, who has produced three turf winners and a SW. Love this pedigree. I will def use. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6-3 in two smaller units. I will also key the 8-7 over/under the 9-6-3-11-10-12-1 in two smaller units.
8th: 3-2-5/6-7-1A/1-4…Aloha West (3) won the debut race and actually ran better the 2nd time out when finishing 5th. Pinched awfully at the start of that one, but still persevered and showed a lot of guts. Lost by less than 3. Gets a huge rider switch for this one and returns as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .29% of those kind. Works have been good since the last start. Looks poised for a huge one. I’m in. Gozilla (2) will make the 2nd career start for the new barn operation. Trainer wins with .13% of those and gets a new rider for the first time. Looks like he is perfectly placed, and the rail can be golden over this track surface. Has won at a .30% clip in recent times. Answer In (5) is a pupil of the Brad Cox barn, and in 8 career starts has a 1-3-2 record. This one ran 2nd in the Springboard Mile in 2019 and third in the G3 Southwest Stakes a year ago. Has talent. Returns as a beaten favorite for this one, and the trainer wins with .33% of those types. Look out. I bet the 3-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 3-5 over/under the 2-6-7-1-1A-4 in two smaller units.
9th: 8-9/2-6/5-1-4/3…G1 Maker’s Mark Mile…This is a G1 event over the sod and once again has attracted some of the best grass runners in the free world. I will go with the classy 6YO veteran Raging Bull (8). Despite the poor effort in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile over this same sod course last November, this one has 4 other trips around this oval. Has a 1-1-1 mark in those — which includes a tough-beat 3rd in this same race a year ago. Lost to War of Will and Parlor in that event last July. Can win off the bench and goes for one of the top grass trainer in the world. In 17 career starts over the grass, this one has gone 6-3-3 and has won over $1.3 million in purses. No reason to doubt here. Field Pass (9) has not raced since last December at Santa Anita. Ran a big one in a G2 event there. In two previous starts here, has a win in the G3 Transylvania last July. Can go to the lead if the pace isn’t solid. Can stalk and finish. Gets a top rider for this assignment. The horse that ran 2nd to him in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks in 2020 — Invader — ran a real good one here on Thursday. Threat as my third “Longshot Special of the Day.” . I bet the 8-9 across the board and then box these two sternly in one exacta. I will key the 8-9 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
10th: 9-7-2/1-4/5-3/8-6…The finale is a 7-furlong MSW event for the 3YO fillies. I go with Caramel Swirl (9). This one has been to the gate 4 times in the career. Has 3 seconds and a third. Last time out was over the sod. Gets back to the dirt here and should appreciate that move. Blinkers come off and the barn wins with .30% of those types. Had a nice work on April 3 at Payson Park, but the barn only wins with .08% of those that go from a route to a sprint. Searching here. Will be short priced. Mo Dean (7) is my pick. this 3YO daughter of Uncle Mo gets the Lasix for the first time in the career and this one will make the 2021 debut here. Has been off since last October. Ran super in the career debut at Saratoga last August. Gets a top rider and the works are spot on. Barn wins with .25% of those getting the Lasix for the first time and with .30% coming off the bench. Looks ready to me. Red Hot and Blue (2) should improve in this 2nd career start. The “Place” horse in the last race came right back to win the net out. This one had some traffic issues and may be tough in this spot. Rider has gone 8-5-2 in the last 23 rides. Look out here. I bet the 7 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene