Total Day Results 10 / 3-3-3
2021 Overall 1,634 1634 / 614-581-778
Win % of Top Pick 37.58%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 40.25%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,107-1,634 67.75%
2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 45-72 62.50%
2021 Top Selections Win / CD 20-72 27.28%
“Key Horses” @ CD 5/1-1-0 20.00% Win / 40.00% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 245/ 110-55-23 44.90% win / 76.73% TM
“Longshots of Day” @ CD 7/0-0-1 00.00% Win /14.29% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @IGR (10-30-21) 18/4-0-0 22.22% Win / 22.22% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2 10.53% Win / 26.32% ITM
“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM

We managed to squeak out 3 winners on the 10-race card at Churchill Downs on Wednesday. Not bad, especially when you consider that we did nail exactas that returned the likes of $16.50, $20.80, $7.60, $6.80 and $11.70 for each $1 played correctly.

We will be headed out towards Indiana Grand Racing & Casino early, early on Thursday. It’s about a 51/2-hour drive from here at KY Lake. So, the bus departs early guys.

But it will be well worth the effort. The crew at Indy Grand has put together a marvelous and wonderful Veteran’s Day program and is hoping to raise serious money for the programs that benefit homeless Veterans. Here’s hoping that we hit. A lot of us hit.

And, here’s hoping we continue to climb out of our early meet slump at Churchill Downs, too. Here’s our picks for the big oval in Louisville on Thursday:

1st 3-7-1/2-6/5/4…Windcracker (3) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval on Thursday. This 3YO gelded son of Super Saver will be making his second start off the claim purchase for the new boss and the barn wins with .23% of those kind. Ran well to be 2nd last time out at KEE against much, much tougher. Drops back down to the same level where he was claimed at just two starts ago. Does not have a win here yet, but has a 2nd and a 3rd in 5 starts. Barn’s go-to rider is up. Roulette (7) will drop into the MCL ranks for the first time here and the barn wins with .17% of those kind. Gets a huge rider switch for this one and the works are good enough of late. Look for big improvement with this class readjustment. Calico Joe (1) will be making the first career start here. Dam of this one has 3 winners from 3 starters and the pedigree can help out over a muddy track, too. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top three numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers here with the 2-6 over & under in the two smaller units.

2nd: 3/6-5-4-1/2…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Kewpie Doll (3). This 3Yo daughter of Street Boss drops off a huge win last time out here on Nov. 3. Barns wins with .33% of the last 33 to do that. Has run two big ones in a row  now and has a 1-1-2 mark in 5 starts at this distance. Looks poised for another victory here. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas. 

3rd: 4-2-7/3-5-8/6-1…Wicked Intent (4) gets a slight nod here, even though the rider choice is more than a little suspect. This pilot has gone 1-1-1 in 7 starts here. Not bad. But still? Drops from the MSW ranks and will convert from the grass to the main track. Barn wins with .27% when making this surface switch. Chance in wide open affair. Benedictinesisters (2) drops seriously in the class ranks, and the barn wins with .17% when making this big a plunge at one time. Will be the 3rd start off the layup, too, and the barn wins with .19% of those kind. Longer distance could help this one. And, this one could use a little help. Hostile Princess (7) was claimed last time out when running third at KEE. Moves up in class and gets a new pilot here. New barn wins with .13% on the first try after the purchase. Works of late are good enough. Chance. I bet the 4-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas.  I will also key the 4-7 over/under the 2-3-5-8-6-1 in two smaller versions. Wide open. Wide. Open. 

4th: 1/3-2-5/4…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes right here for me with — drum roll please — Abrogate (1). This one cost $270,000 to purchase at the KEE September Yearling Sale in 2019. Since then, she has run 6 times. Has 3 wins and a third. Has won nearly $250,000. Has run in 4 straight Stakes events and has a win in the Purple Mountain at Oaklawn Park back in early April. Could be sitting chilly now with another career to follow at the breeding shed. Looks like this one is training very well for the first race since May 14, when she was 5th in the g’3 Mrs. Preakness Stakes. Lost to Red Ghost in that one. Lost by less than 31/2, though. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the numbers listed.

5th: 10-2/1-8/3-6/4-7/5-9…Purity (10) will make her first start at the hometown track in Louisville. This 2YO daughter of Violence looks well positioned for this huge drop to the $15,000 level. Should be plenty of folks ready to claim this one here for that tag. Ran a nice 3rd here last time out and now drops considerably for a barn that wins with .31% when moving this far in one sweep. Should love this shorter distance and the speed may just hold here. Rider has gone 7-1-5 in the last 20 mounts for this barn operation. Not bad. Sonnyneedsmoney (2) will drop from the MSW ranks into the $15,000 slot here. Barn wins with .20% when getting to the MCL ranks for the first time. Barn also win s with .20% when it goes from a sprint to a route and then returns to the sprint distance. Look out here. Looks poised for a great rider. I bet the 10-2 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 10-2 over/under the 1-8-3-6-4-7 in two smaller units.

6th: 3/1-6/5-2-4…The last “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Princess Lea (3). This one ran 2nd over the slop here in September and the track could very easily been a mess by this post time. Has 2 seconds and a third in 4 races at this distance, too. In 6 starts here previously? Has 3 seconds and two thirds. Comes back here as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .26% of those kind. All adds up to a formidable foe here. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then key the 3 over/under the numbers listed. 

7th: 1-2-5/6-3/4-8…I’ll go to the rail horse here and saddle up with Savoy (1). This 3YO gelded son of Honor Code ran poorly last time out to be 5th. But, before that, this one won here in May for trainer Chad Brown. Was claimed out of that one for $75,000. Will be offered up for $50,000 here. Should fit nicely with a return to the claiming ranks and the new rider should fit perfectly. Work here on Nov. 4 was spot on. Look out. Eye of the Cat (2) has run two poor ones in a row against much, much tougher. Finds himself in a claiming race for the first time now. Serves, right? But this gelding broke the maiden in Chicago just 3 starts ago and that was the culmination of 3 outstanding races in a row. Maybe it’s time to get back to the basics? I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-3 in two smaller units.

8th: 8-2/4-7/6/5-3/1…You always bet the #8 in the 8th race, right? Well…you do when the numbers add up that way. They add up that way for me here and I will align my betting dollars with Edge to Edge (8) in this event. The 3YO colt comes in off a tremendous 2nd last time out. Lost that one by a skinny neck and in 3 starts over this track now, this one has a 2-1-0 record. Nice. Very nice. Jockey has gone 6-2-0 ion the last 14 starts for this barn, too. Looks formidable. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 8 over/under the 2-4-7-6-5-3 in two smaller units.

9th: 9-7-5/4/1-2/1A-8/6-3…Yes. Yes. Yes. I always bet the #9 in the 9th race (when the horse warrants it) and today it does, IMO. Hombrazo (9) ran a good one here last time out in September. Gets a nice rider switch to the top gun in the saddle here. In 5 starts over this track, this 4YO son of Macho Uno has a 1-1-2 mark ands a win at the distance, too. Has the ability to rate and has the ability to close. Has shown the ability to gut out a win, too. Should get that chance again here. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 9 over/under the 7-5-4-1-2-8 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene