Total Day Results 9 / 3-2-1
2021 Overall 1,711 1711 / 646-612-808
Win % of Top Pick 37.76%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 40.25%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,161-1,711 67.86%
2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 93-137 67.88%
2021 Top Selections Win / CD 45-137 32.85%
“Key Horses” @ CD 20/9-3-0 45.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 262/ 119-57-24 45.42% Win / 76.34% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ CD 8/0-0-1 00.00% Win / 12.50% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0 19.05% Win / 23.81% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2 10.53% Win / 26.32% ITM
“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM

(Stats to be updated after Saturday’s card is complete)

Here’s a look at our Sunday picks:

1st: 7/3-2-6-1/5-8…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes in the ole’ lid-lifter with Bebop Shoes (7). This 6YO is an Arkansas-bred. An Arkansas-bred. May be the only time this year — or any year — where we have an Arkansas-bred as the “Key Play.” But this gelding comes in off a rather strong 4th here against open company last time out. Now, this one drops all the way to the $10,000 level. Barn wins with 100% — 1 for 1 — when dropping this much at one time. Gets the Kentucky legend — Calvin Borel — up. And, in 7 previous runs here? Has 2 seconds and a third. Looks best in this group. I’m in with “Borel on the Rail.” I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under the 3-2-6-1 in the exactas.

2nd: 1-3/2-4/5-6…Upandcomingstar (1) is a 3YO Into Mischief filly, who cost $500,000 for these connections. Ran over the slop last time out and this one should improve over a fast track here. Has faced some good ones in the past. Gets a top rider in the irons here. New connections have teamed up to win with .20% over the last 10 starts together. Looks good in this setting. Temper Time (3) has raced 10 times so far. Still looking for that elusive winner’s circle for the first time, but does have 3 seconds and a third. Comes in off 2 runner-ups in a row. Could have won either of those. Gets a top rider in the irons for the first time. Look out with the jockey change. I bet the 1-3 across the board and then box these two numbers in the exactas. I will key the 1-3 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.

3rd: 8/1-3-4/6-7/2-5…The second “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Lady Scarlet (8). This 2Yo daughter of Union Rags is trained by Brad Cox, who is beginning to heat up a bit here on the home front. This one ran well in two dirt tries before moving to the grass and Saratoga. That is a toss for me. Has speed. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up. Barn wins with .31% when shifting over to the MCL ranks for the first time. Look out here. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then key the 8 over/under the 1-3-4-6-7 in the exactas. 

4th: 5-7/1-2-3/4-6…Violent Pass (5) will make the first start for the new barn operation after being claimed last time out. This trainer wins with .25% when making the first start for the new outfit. Barn also wins with .23% when going from a sprint to a route distance. This one picks up the barn’s go-to rider. Should figure here big time. Look at the race here two back. Speed. Come catch me. Mister Candy Ride (7) drops in class after a series of tough outings. Is a late-closer and will need racing luck and room late. Rider has won with .30% of the last 70 mounts for this barn, though, and this one figures with the class drop. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-7 in the exactas. I will key the 5-7 over/under the 1-2-3-4 in two smaller units.

5th: 6-1-2/7-5/8-9-11-12/10-3…Englander (6) was claimed just two starts back and the barn wins with .08% on the second start after the acquisition. Ran poorly last time out with the move up in class. But this one now drops to an all-time low price tag. Work on Nov. 13 indicates this one could be a tough out here. Gets a top rider in these parts up for the first time. Look out. Barn wins with .15% when dropping two classes at once. He’s Pretty Lucky (1) gets the blinkers off here, and this new barn operator just picked this one up two starts ago. Ran 2nd at this same level that time. Just missed by a head. Awful start last time out. That cost this one any chance. Needs to be ready, before willing and able. Bold Minister (2) drops significantly for this affair, as well. In 6 previous runs here? Has a win and a second. Gets the return of a hot rider. That could help. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7-5 in two smaller units.

6th: 4/1-6-2/3-7/5…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes here one of my favorite horses — Major Fed (4). This one did not run well last time out in the G2 Fayette Stakes at KEE. But that was over the slop, and in two races now over an “off track” this one has not performed his best. Gets a fast track here and that should help this one immensely. Also, in 6 previous runs here? Has a 2-1-1 mark. Look for this one to come late. But look for this one to come. Love the rider switch. Look out. I bet the 4 sternly and strongly across the board. I will key the 4 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas. More with the 1-6-2 than the rest. 

7th: 3-6-8/7-2/1/5/4…Midnight Ballerina (3) will race for the first time in 13 months. Will get the Lasix for the first time, too. Barn wins with .20% of those and with .17% of those away from the gate this long, as well. Returns as a beaten favorite, and the HOF trainer wins with .21% of those. Ran 5th in the Rags to Riches Stakes at the end of October of 2020. Now, cuts back to the sprint distance where she won on debut over a good opponent in second. Has been training expertly for this outing. Look out with the world’s top rider up. Minute Waltz (6) is a 3YO Nyquist filly, who ran in the G2 Raven Run last time out. No good in that one, but was 3rd in the previous two outings against some good ones. In 4 starts here? Has a win and three thirds. Chance. Color of Dawn (8) goes for the barn of Brad Cox. This one has never been worse than 2nd in three lifetime tries. But? Has not been out in 11 months. Working OK. But may need one. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7-2 in two smaller units.

8th: 6-11-2/1-7-4/10-9/3/5-8…Shoplifted (6) has never run very well over this track. The 4YO son of Into Mischief, who is a G1 Stakes-placed winner of over $583,000 has been tried here three previous times. Has an unimpressive record of 0-0-0. In fact, this one has never, ever, ever been close here, either. Last time out, he was beaten 14 lengths. So? What gives? He just fits best here in this group and the new rider really got to the most out of him last time out. I will give one more try. Tepid. But a try. Beverly Park (11) has won 8 races in a row now. Won here over the slop on Nov. 11 by nearly 6 lengths. Power performance. Rider is red hot here, too. This one figures to be the speed and the one to catch. Can they? Isolate (2) will make the first start for a top class trainer, who wins with .14% making the barn debut. Top rider gets the assignment. Cannot dismiss this one. Talented. I bet the 6-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1-7 in two smaller units.

9th: 9-4-2/(13)/12-5-10-11/7-8-1-3-6…This may be the most wide open race of the day; the week; the meet. Take a dart. Toss it. So many options. So few good ones, unless you can ferret out the best in this toss up. I will give the edge to Sensei Lawrence (9). This one drops from the MSW ranks into the MCL $50,000 level. This trainer wins with .14% when making this class readjustment. Gets the blinkers for the first time, too, and the barn wins with .10% of the last 94 to get the shades for the first time. Son-in-law takes the reins. Combat Medal (4) drops considerably here, too, and rates a shot. Has not run well, to date, but may improve with a fast track and a rider switch. Barn wins with .24% when dropping this much at once. Benny’s Fiddle (2) is my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” This one ran well up at Indy Grand two times ago and the son of Bernardini could improve with a dry track here, too. Could push the pace. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 13, if that one gets in from the AE List. If not? I take the top 3 numbers over/under the 12-5 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene