Total Day Results 8 / 4-0-2
2021 Overall 1,796 1796 / 675-643-843
Win % of Top Pick 37.58%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 40.11%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,217-1,796 67.76%
2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 5-8 62.5
2021 Top Selections Win / TP 4-8 50.00%
“Key Horses” @ TP 0 / 0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 273/ 124-61-24 45.42% Win / 76.56% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ TP 1 / 0-0-1 00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0 19.05% Win / 23.81% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2 10.53% Win / 26.20% ITM
“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM

(Stats will be updated after Friday night’s card is completed)

Here’s our looks for Turfway Park on Saturday evening:

1st: 11/7-10/2-12-8/6-5-9…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes in the ole’ lid-lifter up at the “new & improved” Turfway Park on Saturday evening with Sunset at Mallory (11). This one is listed at 6-5 in the ML, and should be well-bet at PT, too, coming in with four straight 2nd-place finishes before the last race debacle. Drops to an all-time low price tag here off the last race fiasco, and the barn wins with .22% when dropping this much at one time. Barn also wins with .24% when going from dirt to the AW surface. If she rallies back to normal self off the last out? Look out here. I bet the 11 across the board and then key the 11 over/under all the numbers listed. More with the 7-10. A little less with the 2-12-8. Lesser with the rest.

2nd: 9/4-6-8-1/3-7/5-10/2…The second “Key Play of the Night” comes here with P H Factor (9). This 5YO son of The Factor checks in off three wins in a row and has a brilliant 7-1-3 mark in 14 previous tries over thee AW surfaces. Here? Has a 2-1-0 mark in 4 previous starts. Trainer wins with .33% for the year, and the rider has won with .20% of 537 mounts this year. Looks tough here. I’m in. I bet the 9 across the board and then key the 9 over/under the 4-6-8-1-3-7 in the exactas. More with the 4-6-8-1 than the rest.

3rd: 8-10/2-11-12-(14)/3-4/5-1/6-7…Dearest Kitten (8) gets the nod here, dropping out of the $40,000 ranks into a slot where she can be purchased for a mere $15,000 here. Barn wins with .21% when dropping this much at one time. May improve with the cut-back in distance, and a clever rider takes the mount for the first time. Will speed early on. Rutabaga (10) goes for an outstanding young trainer and will drop for half the price tag that she was offered up for last time out. Ran a very nice 2nd in that one, too, at Indy Grand. Gets a top rider in the saddle, who is having a solid Fall-Winter season. Will be stalking and will have first run on the leaders. I bet the 8-10 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 8-10 over/under the 2-11-12-14-3-4 in two smaller units.

4th: (14)-3-6/11-5/8-10-2/(13)-1-7…My top pick here will need some luck just to make the starting gate. As of right now, Wake Surf (14) is parked on the AE List, and will need several scratches to make the gate. If he does? Look out. Ran well on debut over the turf at KEE on Oct. 8. Ran well for awhile at Churchill Downs in the last, but tired mightily in the final stages. Could improve immensely with this shorter distance. If he gets in…right? Tawny Port (3) will get the edge if the top pick doesn’t make the gate. This one is a firsts timer for the barn of Brad Cox, who wins with only .10% of those debuting at a distance of a mile or farther. But? This one is training lights out over this surface and comes from a dam who has 2 winners from the first 3 starters. Dam was a Stakes-winner, too, and this 2YO son of Pioneerof the Nile cost the connections a hefty $430,000 to purchase at the 2020 KEE September Yearling Sale. That was the 6th highest price for one of the sire’s progeny in that sale-a-thon. North Street (6) is another first time starter and cannot be dismissed here, either. This sone of Street Sense comes from a dam who has thrown two winners form two starters and the work here on Dec. 1 was spot on. Gets a top rider up and may just hunt the front from the get. I use. I bet the 14 if he gets in. If not? I will be the 3-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 14 if in; if not, I will key the 3-6 over/under 11-5-8-10-2 in the exactas, as well. 

5th: 10-6/8-4/1-5/2-3/7-9…$100,000 Holiday Inaugural Stakes…What a nice sprint Stakes that has been assembled here by one of the top, young Racing Secretaries in the country — Mr. Dan Bork. Every horse in this field has a legit argument as to why the connections can win. But I will give the slight edge to Razor Glass (10). This 3YO daughter of Congrats comes in off a win in the NA debut at Churchill Downs on Nov. 3. Had been running in Great Britain before that, but has extensive experience over the AW in that venue. Has raced over AW five times previously. Has two wins and a second in those efforts. Should adapt and adopt very well here. Has speed. Can stalk. Get a top rider up. Look out here. Aug Lutes (6) ships in from Woodbine, where she just ran a competitive 4th in a G2 event north of the border. Before that, this one won a Stakes at Belmont Park on the turf. In 5 AW tries so far, this one has 3 wins and a second. Legit. Lady Edith (1) is a personal favorite, and I have a serious rooting interest in this one. The 3YO Street Sense filly has an impressive win over this track before and is trained by an outstanding hard boot conditioner, whom I truly enjoy and respect. But, more than that, this filly was formerly owned by great friend — Dr. J. David Richardson, who lost a battle with Covid this past summer at Saratoga. I will be rooting like crazy here. Like crazy. I bet the 10-1 across the board and then box the 10-1-6 in the exactas. I will key the 10-1-6 over/under the 8-4 in two smaller units.

6th: 8-4-1A/5-6-9/1/2-10…Quick Return (8) was claimed last time out for $30,000 when running at KEE on Oct. 23. Nearly won that 6-furlong sprint, but tired at the wire. Returns here for a new barn that wins with an amazing .67% of the last 6 to return as a beaten favorite. This one fits that description. Has never run over the AW. Yet. But this NY-bred has been good over both fast dirt and “off track.” See no reason he can’t do the same here. Lost in Manhattan (4) factors in here, as well. Won the last time out and has hit the board in the last 6 starts and 9 out of the last 10. Has a 1-5-2 mark in 9 races over an AW surface in the past. Should fit here with the new rider up. Tomato Bill (1A) could add some spice to this odds rack. This one listed at 8-1 in the ML. But if you can overlook the 3 races over sloppy tracks, this one is very solid on a dry track — which he figures to get. Breedings suggests he should love the Tapeta. I like. I bet the 8-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5-6-9 in two smaller units.

7th: 5/2-6-8-3/1-7-10/9-11…The last “Key Play of the Night” comes here with Maxi Boy (5), who is a very generous 5-1 in the ML according to my friends over at Brisnet.com. Love it. This 4YO son of Oasis Dream has a top pedigree, and comes into this one off a much-better-than-looks performance in the NA debut at KEE in October. Was lost at the start of that one. Still, he managed to lose by less than 3 at the wire. Look at the lone run over the AW at Lingfield last year, too. This one has style and ability. Could launch here. I’m betting he does. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under the 2-6-8-3-1-7-10. More with the 2-6-8-3 than the rest. 

8th: 11-2-5/7/1-3-6-10/9-12/4-8…Star Shopping (11) is my last “Longshot Special of the Night.” This one ran well at Ellis Park on debut. Nearly won that one. Will get the blinkers for the first time, too, and the rider is red hot. Won 4 of 6 on opening night here. Look for this one to rebound with authority here over the AW. Alasdair (2) goes for the barn of Brad Cox. This one debuts at over a mile, too. Dam has 4 winners from 4 starters and has a Stakes winner, too. Breeding there. Working very, very well. Looks like he could be a serious contender on first ask. Steinbeck (5) will make the first start for the new trainer, who wins with .09% of those kind. But the barn does win with .27% of those going from a sprint to a route distance. Has not been close at the wire in the first 3 tries, but has not been beaten badly, either. Gets a top rider and a fresh start. I include. I bet the 11-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 7 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene