Total Day Results 8 / 1-4-6
2021 Overall 1,860 1860 / 693-659-871
Win % of Top Pick 37.26%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 39.84%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,248-1,860 67.10%
2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 36-72 50.00%
2021 Top Selections Win / TP 22-72 30.56%
“Key Horses” @ TP 8 / 2-3-1 25.00% Win / 75.00% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 281/ 126-64-25 44.84% Win / 76.51% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ TP 10 / 0-1-2 00.00% Win / 30.00% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0 19.095% Win / 23.81% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2 10.53% Win / 26.20% ITM
“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM

Nothing to say after Friday night’s handicapping. Other than…I don’t understand how these horses are winning at Turfway Park. Perplexed. Befuddled. Confused. Head-scratched.

So…

I am just going to stick to my knitting and hope that things start to figure and things start to straighten out.

Here’s our looks for Saturday’s program:

Pick 5: 9-1-4-11-8 / 5 / 8-9-11-4-2-6 / 2-7-11 / 4-2-7 = $135

1st: 9-1-4/11-8/2-5-10/3-6…Pole Setter (9) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter and will kick start what is sure to be a real thriller in a Pick 5 that includes a significant carryover to the till. This 5YO son of Take Charge Indy comes in off a clear and decisive win here on Dec. 4. Set the fractions and held sway. Speed is carrying strong over the new Tapeta right now. Will help this one, surely. Has a win in 4 tries here. Trainer is .25% winner over the AW. Direct Approach (1) lost to the top pick last time out. Came from late and made up considerable ground at the 1-mile distance. Gets to add another 1/4-mile tonight, and that could mean the difference in this spot. Has never gone this long before, but does have a 2-2-1 mark in 5 tries over this surface. Top rider up. I go here. Like the odds. Seventyseven Stone (4) ran in a G3 Stakes event at Woodbine last time out. Was wide in both turns and was no factor. Time before? Won going this route of ground over the Canadian track surface. This one could pop at a number. I bet the 1 — take note — across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 11-8 in two smaller units.

2nd: 5/11-9-10/1-8-7-3/4-12/2-6…The first “Key Play of the Night” comes right here with Grantham (5). This 2YO son of Declaration of War cost a hefty $280,000 earlier this year and looked good in the career debut at Churchill Downs. Ran up against a good one, it seems, in that affair. Look for improvement here with the stretch out to the route for the first time. Barn wins with .16% of those. Gets the meet’s top rider up. That’s a huge plus. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under the 11-9-10-1-8-7-3 in the exactas. More with the 11-9-10 than the rest.

3rd: 8-9-11/4-2-6/3-5/1-10-7…One Fast Orb (8) gets the edge in this one. Comes from the barn of Tommy Drury, who is one of the best in the game. Has not won here this Holiday Meet, but that just means he is over due. Has 2 seconds and 2 thirds in 6 starts, so far. Blinkers come off here, and the barn wins with 0-for-5 in those circumstances. Like the rider. Look out here at a nice price. My first “Longshot Special of the Night.” Another longshot possible is Mymatemarmite (9). This one will make the NA debut here and will get Lasix for the first time. Barn wins with .18% of those away from the gate this long and with just .06% making their first start for the new barn operator. But? Training well and has experience over the AW over there. Chance. House Wrecker (11) nearly won at this same level last time out. Edged by a neck at KEE in October. Could be a tough out if she is able to match those strides here. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 8-9 over/under the 11-4-2-6-3-5 in two smaller units.

4th: 2-7-11/4-6-10/5-12/1-3-9-8…Ralphie Boy (2) has run two good ones over the AW surface up at Woodbine and now ships here for this MSW encounter. Barn is a relative unknown, and wins with only .06% of those returning as a beaten favorite. But this one seems to have talent and the sire was good at throwing runners over all kinds of surfaces. I like this one in this spot. Scoot Daddy (7) will make the first start for the new barn operation, and its wins with .30% of those making the initial start. Comes off a deep-closing 3rd up at Woodbine, too. Deep closer will need to get some motivation early and this rider is clever and better than the numbers suggest. Chance. Icarus (11) is a first-timer for the barn of Brad Cox. This one cost $210,000 to purchase at KEE in 2020 September. Has worked very well here for the debut. Interesting spot to try the new game. Could have gone to FG or Oaklawn, right? I bet the 2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 11-4-6-10-5-12 in two smaller units.

5th: 4-2-7/1-8-5/11-3/10-6-9…Prairie Bayou Stakes…What a nice Stakes event that has been carded up at the new and improved Turfway Park by Racing Secretary Dan Bork — one of the best in the game today. This will features a number of top runners, but I will go with the steady veteran — Snapper Sinclair (4). This 6YO son of City Zip has been very salty over the turf, with 4 wins and 3 seconds in 11 starts. But the connections opted to run in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last time out, rather that test the turf sprint. Can close and can run. Will try AW for the first time. But I have no doubts this versatile guy can get the job done. After all? When was the last time a Breeders’ Cup starter made the next outing at Turfway Park. New. And. Improved. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 4 over/under the 2-7-1-8-5-11-3 in two smaller units.

6th: 4-3/2-1-6-11/5-7-9/10…Greener Pastures (4) is my selection here. This one won at Churchill Downs last time out against tougher and has a win in two previous tries here over the AW. Can close. Or? Can go right to the front. I like the rider sticking here and the works are solid. May make it back to back. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the 4-3 in the exactas. I will key the 4-3 over/under the 2-1-6-11 in two smaller units. 

7th: 10-3/2-1-11/5-4-7-9/6-8…Visitant (10) gets the nod for me here. This 5YO son of Ghostzapper has won 3 of 4 here — with a 3rd to add to the resume. Has run in three straight Stakes events, and the last 2 have been against the great Maxfield in G2 company. Should relish this group. I’m in. All in. My next “Key Play of the Day.” I bet? I bet the 10 across the board and then box the 10-3 in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I key the 10 over/under the 3-2-1-11-5-4-7-9 in two smaller units.

8th: (14)-3-11/7-6-2-1/9…The finale of the night and I will go with the far outside extreme — Diamond Lydiamarie (14). Thing is? Has to draw in from the AE List and that will be no small feat. If in? I go strong here. If not, I opt for Sugar and Sass (3). This one drops from the $25,000 level all the way to the bargain bin, and this barn wins with .25% when it collapses this much on one. Gets a top rider, too. I bet the 14 if she gets in. If not, I bet the 3 across the board. I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene