Total Day Results 9 / 3-4-5
2022 Overall — 693 693 / 245-251-323
Win % of Top Pick 35.35%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 39.39%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 440-693 63.49%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 70–103 67.96%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 38-103 36.89%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 16/7-5-1 43.75% Win / 81.25% ITM
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 79-116 68.10%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 49-116 42.24%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 23/10-2-3 43.48% Win / 65.22% ITM
2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall  129/ 54-29-10 41.86% Win / 72.09% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 3/0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 20/3-1-2 15.00% Win / 30.00% ITM
2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 1/1-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM

(Stats will be update after Friday’s card is completed)

Here’s our looks for Churchill Downs on Preakness Stakes Saturday:

1st: 3-4/1/2/5…Naval Aviator (3), who I thought could be a world-class talent when the career started last October with a win in the first outing at KEE, now founds himself for sale for a mere $50,000 in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval on Saturday. I still think he’s worth that money and likely to be a claim here today, and if he gets things back together? Look out. Gets an aggressive rider up here and that may spark a little more interest. Like the work over in Lexington on May 14. I’ll give him a try with the big drop in class here. Lemonadeatthelatch (4) has not been out since mid-March and the time off may have aided the cause. A solid claim for the $30,000 last October off the Cox barn. Ran 2nd to Barber Road and to Tawny Port — both of whom ended up in this year’s KY Derby. This one can pop you. I use. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 3-4 over/under the 1 in two smaller units.

2nd: 6/3-2-1/4-5…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes in just the 2nd race of the day and with Altered Shot (6). This 4YO filly goes for the barn of Greg Foley, who is a top notch horseman. Won the last time out in what could have been a nice claim. Fits very nicely with this group. Has stalking speed and gets a nice rider to sub for the meet’s top jock, who is off to Pimlico today. I bet the 6 across the board and then key the 6 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas. I use more with the 3-2-1 and more on top.

3rd: 1-4/2/5/3-6…Pine Knoll (1) gets the nod here, for the barn of Brad Cox. this one nearly scored a big one last time out at KEE. Came with a late rush to scare the odds board. Race before, though, won over the sod at the Fair Grounds and now has a 1-3-1 mark in 5 races at this distance. Looks good here. Midnight Tea Time (4) goes for a red-hot barn operation, which has won with .27% of the first 15 starters this meet. Gets a good grass rider back in the saddle and these two teamed up for a win in New Orleans back on Dec. 18. May be a happy reunion. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 2 in two smaller units.

4th: 2-4/1-6/3-5…Casa de Goat (2) is another shot coming out of the Cox barn. This one ran off to a 12-length win in the career debut at KEE on April 23. Hard to beat any field by 12 lengths — especially one at KEE and one with 7 other horses in in. Connections must have known something, too. Bet down to odds-on favoritism in that one, as well. Son of Twirling Candy is back at it here. Hard to figure that he doesn’t have similar aspirations. Played Hard (4) is a very talented Into Mischief filly in her own right. Will make the 2022 debut here. She is Graded Stakes placed and faced “The Champ” last year in the G1 Alabama. Barn known to have them ready and the blinkers come off here. Barn wins with .38% when that happens. Class act. I bet the 2 across the board and then hammer box the 2-4 in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 4-1-6-3-5 in two smaller units.

5th: 2/5/7/4-1/3-6…The second “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Hazy Command (2). This 3YO Mastery filly nearly won the last time out at KEE at big odds and has trained well since. Has a win at this distance and has enjoyed the use of Lasix, since it was added 4 starts ago. Different filly. Sharp work on May 13. Barn’s go-to rider up. Look out. I bet the 2 across the board and then key the 2 over/under the 5-7-4-1 in the exactas. More with the 5 than the rest.

6th: 2-3-9/1/7-10-12/8/4-5…This is a 5.5-furlong turf sprint and these may be the toughest races in the world to handicap. A bobble or a bang can bend you and your horse in the wrong direction. I will give the edge to Musical Design (2). This one is a daughter of Maclean’s Music and trained by a man who knows this specialty race better than most others. Filly returns as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .34% of those kind. Barn is winning at a .31% rate for the year, too, and that is after 135 starts. Solid start here to this meet. Pick. Hey There (3) didn’t flash much speed in the career debut, but moves to a different trainer here and this barn does very well with .29% winners in the 2nd grass race. Gets a top rider, who is doing well. Could be coming late. Watch out. Air of Authority (9) could spice up this odds board. Under-rated trainer is winning at a .22% clip this meet after the first 9 starts and this first time starter is training very well for the debut. Like the rider choice. I use. I bet the 2-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1 in two smaller units.

7th: 5-6/3-8/4-7/1-2…Shes Greekandsleek (5) nearly won the career debut here on May 5 and has trained well since. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up this time around and if she can improve any off the initial experience, she will be a tough out here. Wicked Lady (6) gets Lasix for the first time and has two solid 3rds on the resume so far. Will make the 2022 debut here and the new jockey can win. Solid odds in the ML. Like it. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 5-6 over/under the 3-8-4-7 in two smaller units.

8th: 4/5-3/2-7/1-8/6…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes here with the ML odds-on favorite Runnin’ Ray (4). In 18 lifetime starts, this one has a resume of 6-4-2. Does well here, with 2-1-1 record in 7 previous tries. Drops back into allowance company after a near miss in the G3 Oaklawn Mile against some real runners. Anything close to that and this one will be showing the taillights early and often. I bet the 4 to win only and key the 4 over (only) the 5-3-2-7 in the exactas. Key for me in the horizontal plays.

9th: 4/5-11-12/8/2-7/3-6…The next “Key Play of the Day” follows in the very next race with another 4 — Pancake House (4). This 3YO son of Maclean’s Music nearly broke the MSW at KEE last time out and goes for one of the top young trainers in the game today. Solid horseman. Solid person. The kind of guy that you root for every day. This colt comes from out of it. But seems to like the grass and could improve with the second time over the sod. I’m all in. I bet the 4 across the board and then key the 4 over/under the 5-11-12-8 in the exactas. 

10th: 1A-1/4-3-2/5/6/7…I will go with my “Upset Special of the Day” here. The odds won’t be exceedingly high, but I think there is a real chance that both parts of this entry can run 1-2 and defeat the highly-touted and oft-mentioned favorite. I give the slight edge to Kuchar (1A), who comes off a very nice 2nd to Home Brew in the Oaklawn Stakes last time out. Just tired at the end and the cut back in distance here should help. Entrymate Brooklyn Diamonds (1) come be the toughest competition. Ran well over the mud at Oaklawn Park last time out after breaking the maiden in the career debut. Connections spent a lot of money on this son of Uncle Mo. May turn out to be OK. Bettor are likely to hammer down Rattle N Roll (4) in this spot. He will get Lasix for the first time and did win here to break the MSW last Fall. But? He just doesn’t seem to be the same runner this year as last. Granted, has been chasing the biggest and baddest on the “Road to the KY Derby.” But has not been sharp. I fade. I bet the entry across the board and then key the entry over/under the 3-2-5-6-7 — trying to beat the favorite.

11th: 10-9-13/8-1-6/12-2-5-(14)/4-7…G3 Louisville Stakes…This is a 11/2-mile marathon over the sod to finish the day and I will go to the outside to find my top picks. I give the edge to Shamrocket (10), a 5YO son of Tonalist who nearly won a G2 just two starts ago at Gulfstream Park. Has a win at this distance and gets a pilot who knows about distance races on the sod. I like this one. Camp Hope (9) could spice up the odds board here. This one won the last time out and will stretch out for this one. But? Didd run well at a marathon distance at KY Downs last year. Look out here. My biggest surprise play here, though, may be Cellist (13). Ran well at KEE and looks like can handle the distance. Fantastic grass rider is up again. I use. I bet the 10-13 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 10-13 over/under the 9-8-1-6-12-2-5 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene