|2022 Overall — 1656
||1656 / 560-612-784
|Win % of Top Pick
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1067-1656
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 10-18
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 4-18
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 3/0-2-0
||00.00% Win / 66.67% ITM
|2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 311-464
|2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 165-464
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 64/26-9-7
||40.63% Win / 64.06% ITM
|2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 270/ 107-58-25
||39.63% Win / 70.37% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 11/2-1-1
||18.18% Win / 36.36% ITM
|2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 7/2-1-2
||28.57% Win / 71.43% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ EP — 11/3-1-2
||27.27% Win / 54.55% ITM
|2022 Overall / “Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 3/0-3-0
||00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
|2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 44/9-7-5
||20.45% Win / 47.73% ITM
(Stats to be updated after Horseshoe Indianapolis’ card on Tuesday)
Here’s our looks at Churchill Downs’ card on this Wednesday — “Hump Day” — celebration:
1st: 7-4/5-1/3/6-2/8…Beverly’s Charge (7) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval in Louis Town on this “Hump Day.” The 3YO filly comes ins off a lackluster performance against much better last time out at Ellis Park. Bumped at the start of that one and never got untracked. Toss race for me. Look at race here two back. Has been well bet in the past, and has hit the board in nearly half of the career starts. Barn wins with .38% on the 2nd start after a claim purchase. Wow. Violent Gigi (4) ships in from Indy and will get the services of an under-rated rider, who has won with .11% of his 331 mounts this year. The one won at Oaklawn Park back in March, when the racing there was pretty tough. Chance. I bet the 7 across the board and then box the 7-4 in the exactas. I will key the 7-4 over/under the 5-1-3 in two smaller units.
2nd: 10-12/9-8-2-(15)-(13)/(16)-1-3-4-5-7…Cortese (10) will make the first start of the career for the new barn operation, which has had great success in this claiming game. The 2YO colt has hit the board in 2 of 3 lifetime and has a nice 2nd in two starts here. Picks up the Commonwealth’s best rider for this occasion. Like this one. Saturn Boy (12) ran huge in Virginia in the first career start. Nearly picked off the win that day, when bet down to favoritism. Barn wins with .26% of the last 941 to return as a beaten favorite. Love the rider/trainer combo reunion. They have done great work together in the past and could do it again. Rider has won with .30% of the last 10 for the barn. I bet the 10-12 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 10-12 over/under the 9-8-2.
3rd: 3-2/4-7-8-5/1/2…Nana’s Gray (3) drops back into the claiming ranks after a toughing outing over the sod at KY Downs. Fits better here and picks up a really hot rider of late. Had back-to-back wins over this main track in late May and June. Could return to that level here. Fabricate (2) was claimed just three starts ago and now has only two wins in the first 19 career starts. Ran very well at KEE in April and has faced tougher than this group in the past. May improve with the return to the sprint distance here. Barn wins with .14% cutting back. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-2 in the exactas. I will key the 3-2 over/under the 4-7-8-5-1 in two smaller units.
4th: 3-1A/5/4-1/6-7-8/2-9…Moliere (3) is a 5YO son of Curlin, and this one cost a mere $30,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Horses of Racing Age Sale. Has won only $5,000+ of that back. So far. Was claimed last time out for $10,000. Ran well late in that affair and gets a new rider up here, and he could aid the cause. Jingle (1A) is an Indiana-bred who will face open company here. But this guy has done that before and recently was 2nd and won here. Here, as in, Churchill Downs. Take note. I bet the 3-1A across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4-1 in two smaller units.
5th: 1-7-3/4-2/5-6/8…Big Bad Diva (1) won the last time out and did it easily on the Jersey Shore. Gets a rider switch to best stick man in these parts. Barn wins with .24% of the last 498, who won their last start. Attracts top rider. Threat. She’s a Dime (7) won the last time out at Indy and has now hit the board in each of the last two outings. Didn’t fare too well in two starts here this Spring, but I can’t forgive. Those were against much better company. Rider sticks. Pretti Xtreme (3) has hit the board in each of the last three outings, and has run well in each of those efforts. Rider has won with 2 of last 5 for this barn. Chance. I bet the 1-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4-2 in two smaller units.
6th: (14)-3-7/5/2-6-4-11-12/(1A)-8-1…The top pick goes to a steed who will need a considerable amount of luck before the day even starts — Mabuhay (14). This 2YO son of American Pharaoh is on the AE List and will need a few scratches to make the gate. That is unlikely to happen, but worth noting. Just in case. Golden Fate (3) could easily be the horse to beat and the best bet in this race. The 2YO is trained by Tom Amoss, who is off to an incredibly good start to the meet. Has gone 3-1-1 in the first 12 starts. Computes to win % of .25. Sharp work here on Sept. 16. Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters, too. Adds up for me. King d’Oro (7) cost a nice $230,000 at the OBS April Sale earlier this year. Will make the career debut here for a HOF trainer, who wins with .19% on debut efforts. Sharp work on Sept. 16. Top rider takes the assignment. I bet the 3-7 across the board and box these two sternly in the exactas, if the #14 does not draw in. If he does? Add him to the mix and box the 3-7-14. I will key these numbers over/under the 5 in two smaller units.
7th: 9-6-3/4/10/5-8/1-7/2…Wild Behavior (9), who is listed at 6-1 in the ML by Brisnet.com (the only place you need to go for all your handicapping needs), is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This 6YO gelding tried a Stakes event in the slop last time out. The didn’t work out. But look at the two races here before that one. Should fit very nicely in this spot. I’m all in. Beverly Park (6) has 2 wins and a 2nd in 4 starts here and this one’s stalking talent fits here well. Has faced some good ones in the past. Rider has a win with this one here in June. Reunion time. Flamingo Hawk (3) ran two good ones in a row at Saratoga and comes in here on a roll. Loves this distance. New rider could fit here. I bet the 9-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the top 3 over/under the 4 in two smaller units.
8th: 4-8/2-6/7-1/3-5…Kavod (4) nearly won the last time out at Ellis Park and the winner of that one came right back to win the next time out. That was off a layoff and this one should be fitter here. Has faced the likes of Jack Christopher and Cyberknife in the past. Gets a new rider here and this one could boost the chances. Look out here. Hoist the Gold (8) could upset this apple cart, to be sure. This one has a win here and picks up the Commonwealth’s best rider for this occasion. Works are spot on. Will be coming in this outing — which has all the looks of a Stakes event. I bet the 4 across the board and double down on the win bet. I will box the 4-8 in the exactas. And, I will key the 4 over/under the 8-2-6-7-1 in two smaller units. Love the 4.
9th: 12-9/6-10-(14)-11/2-4-7/8-(13)/3-5…The finale is a MCL event slated for 6 furlongs and I ante up with Rikio (12), who sounds like the new jockey agent for rider Ricardo Santana, Jr. This 3YO gelding drops from the $30,000 level all the way to $10,000 here and that’s amazing since this one nearly won last time out at the previous price point. If he can repeat that last performance? Look out. Offutt Cole (9) will get the services of Santana. This one has some speed and will flash it early and often. Drops in class here and the barn wins with .19% when making this big of a plunge. May lead them from gate to wire. I bet the 12 across the board and then box the 12-9 in the exactas. I will key the 12-9 over/under the 6-10-14-11-2 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene