|Total Day Results||8 /2-2-3|
|2021 Overall 246||246 / 77-81-92|
|Win % of Top Pick||31.30%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||33.88%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 151-246||61.38%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 96-156||61.54%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 50-156||32.05%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 24 / 11-3-3||45.83% Win / 70.83% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 37 / 20-7-3||54.05% Win / 81.08% ITM|
We didn’t fare too well in the “win” department at the “new and improved” Turfway Park on Friday night. We managed to scrap together 2 winners out of the 8 races. Ugh.
There’s always a “but,” right?
But the “exactas” were big on Friday and they be “very good to us.” We hit 5 exactas that returned the likes of $31.50, $25.80, $54.30, $66.40 and a whopping $95.10 for each $1 played correctly. And, I hope you played along at home with us and plunked more than the simple $1.
It was huge.
So we travel into Saturday’s “cards” with a little cash to flow around. And, we will add some “bonus coverage” with the full, whopping, 14-race card at Gulfstream Park.
Here’s our picks, with limited comments:
1st: 5-4-2/10-6/8…Front Street (5) gets a tepid nod in the lid-lifter in what could be a “key” MSW event. Some great pedigrees and prospects look to be hidden in this haystack. But Front Street enters the fray with two very nice 2nds in a row. Distance could be a factor and the rail has to be open for this pilot to navigate his best. Tepid. Temper Mint Twist (4) looks to be rapidly improving and the works in the a.m. are proof positive. Could be ready for a monster here. Watch out. Sibaaq (2) may be the best “pedigreed” filly in the mix. Shadwell Farm’s homebred has been working very well for trainer Todd Pletcher, who scores with .22% on debut. Would not be a suprise. Dam of this one has 2 winners from the first 4 starters. And, get this, 2 Stakes winners. Hmmm. I bet the 4-2 (take note) across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-2 over/under the 5-10-6-8 in two smaller units.
2nd: 7-2-9/3…This 1-mile event looks to be interesting to sort. I go with another from the Pletcher barn in Nocturnal (7). Has run 2 good ones to begin the career and the upper trajectory should continue here. Speed to use and speed to burn. Look out below. My pick. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 7-2-9 over/under the 3 in two smaller. I will key the 7 over/under the “all button” in two smaller.
3rd: 1-3/6-8-5…G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes…This is a 11/16-mile event over the sod and I will go to the rail and Spanish Loveaffair (1), who will be making the 2021 debut. When last seen in the afternoons, this one ran 6th to Aunt Pearl in the G1 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf. Got lost when wide in that one. Only previous time at this distance, was 2nd to Aunt Pearl in the G2 Jessamine at KEE. Can pop off the bench. Has the quality. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-3 over/under the 6-8-5 in two smaller.
4th: 4-5-3/8-1-7/6…G2 Mac Diarmida Stakes…This is an endurance test over the sod. I’ll go with Moon Over Miami (6) in my first “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 4YO Malibu Moon colt has not been seen since last October and may need a race. Or two. But he has been training well and he has faced some tough ones in the past. Love his win at KY Downs last September. Horses he beat that day came right back to win the next outing. Sir Sahib (5) could be a longer shot on the board. I can toss the last race, when this one was steadied in the early going and lost all chance. Gets a new rider here and look at the G1 just two starts back. Could be a surprise. Tide of the Sea (3) gets the hottest rider on the planet and comes off a nice win in a G3 last time out. In 3 starts at this distance? Has a 1-1-1 mark. One to beat. I bet the 4-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 8-1 in two smaller. I bet the 4-3 over/under the 5-8-1-7-6 in two smaller.
5th: 4-6-8/3-5-2…Collaborate (4) came from nearly last to make a threatening run at the wire in the career debut. And, that was just 6 furlongs in the slop. Awful break that day. Give this one a decent start? Look out. I go with another 4 (which is our popular number in Florida today). I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4 over/under the rest of the numbers listed, too.
6th: 4-8-3/6-5-2/1…Palm Beach Stakes…This is 11/16-miles over the grass and I will go with my 2nd “Longshot Special of the Day,” and another #4 — Cave Hill (4). This 3YO son of Frosted comes in off a 3rd in a Stakes event on Jan. 2. Trouble finding the right opening late in that one. Gets a new rider and a HOF jockey in the saddle today. Look for more. Chess’s Dream (8) is another potential long number. This one won the G3 Kitten’s Joy last time out and the Florida-bred wheels right back for trainer Mike Maker and rider Tyler Gaffalione. They have teamed up to win at a .21% rate over the last 34 starts together. Hmmm. I bet the 4-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-8 over/under the 3-6-5-2-1 in two smaller.
7th: 5-8-11/1-6-4/2-7-9…West Will Power (5) has never run a bad one in the first three and will get the blinkers for the first time today. Barn wins with .29% when adding the shades. Gets a huge rider switch and the works are spot on. What not to like? I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta I will key the 5 over/under the numbers listed in two smaller units.
8th: 4-9/2-5/6-8/1-7…G3 Canadian Turf Stakes…This is a 11/16-mile test over the sod and why not another #4 here? And, another “Longshot Play of the Day?” I go with a return to glory for Fancy Liquor (4), who has disappointed in the last two outs. I don’t know why, but he has tracked in the last two rather than step out in the lead. Gets a new rider and I bet a new strategy. Or better yet, a return to an old style. Look for this one to use the speed more and maybe return to the winner’s circle, too. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-9 in the exacta. I will key the 4-9 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
9th: 2-4/1-3-5/6…G2 WinStar Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes…This is a dirt event and I will go with Tax (2), who is cutting back to a new distance for the first time. Does not show a race less than 11/16-miles in recent form. But in that race? Won by nearly 5 in the G3 Harlan’s Holiday over this track. Just overmatched in the Pegasus World Cup. Made a nice middle move, but after that? Lost. Good move to cut back and adds blinkers, too. Barn is winning at a .36% clip this meet and that is with 45 runners. Wow. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-4 in one exacta. I will key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
10th: 8-2/6-9/3-11/4…Another turf event and I will saddle up with Bodecream (8), who comes form the Mike Maker barn. Flashed speed last time out at the Fair Grounds. Gave it up at the wire. Now, stretches out a bit farther. Concern. In 3 starts at this distance, has 2 seconds and a 3rd. Can he get to the wire fast enough? Good question. Opry (2) is a deep closer, but has not faced the kind of competition that the top pick has in the past. But could show up late. I bet the 8-2 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 8-2 over/under the 6-9-3-11-4 in two smaller.
11th: 6-2/7-4/9/5…G3 Honey Fox Stakes…This 1-mile grass event includes the “Champion” Got Stormy (2), who will return to her former distance — where she sports a lifetime record of 8-5-2 in 17 starts. After some stall in that distance last year, she was switched to the sprints and did well. Now back to the 1-mile distance. Be interesting. She has class and guts. No doubt. But? I have to see. So, I go with a bit of an upset with Zofelle (6). This one won the 1-mile and G3 Marshua’s River here on Jan. 23 in absolute style and domination. Gets a new rider here, but I go with the hot hand. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 6-2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller.
12th: 3-5/2-4-8-9/6-11-12…G2 Davona Dale…This is a 1-mile event that will set-up some other 3YO fillies events later in the meet, and could be a huge stepping stone in deciding the field for this year’s KY Oaks. I go with the 2YO Champ — Vequist (3). Has not run since dominating the BC Juvenile Fillies race at KEE last November. In 4 career starts now, has 2 wins and 2 seconds. Should fit this 1-nile distance perfectly. Love the rider choice. Go-go time for a world-class stalker. Millefueille (5) is no slouch and has been training lights out at Payson Park for a HOF trainer. Love this rider choice, too. Could be a real good one at the wire. I bet the 3-5 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 3-5 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller.
13th: 3-6/2-4-7/5-9-10…G3 The Very One Stakes…The final turf event of the day and I will go with the classy Antoinette (3) in this spot. In two previous tries at this endurance distance, she has a win and a second. Has been off since last October and may need one. But has shown the ability to run well off the bench, too. Trainer has won 4 of 6 in the last two weeks. Wow. Kalifornia Queen (6) is making the NA debut for Chad Brown. Enough written. Chance. Big one, too. I bet the 3-6 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 3-6 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller.
14th: 2-8/1-4/7…G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes…So the KY Derby preps start to get real. Real interesting. Real tough. Real important. This 11/16-mile event will cloister some of the best possible contenders for this year’s Derby. One to beat is Greatest Honour (8), who was simply dominant in the G3 Holy Bull here last time out. In 5 career starts now, this one has 2-1-2 record and has two wins in a row. Obviously, the one to beat. But? Prime Factor (2) could be a real factor in here, too. This 3Yo son of Quality Road looked like a lost ball in high weeds in the G3 Holy Bull last time out. Didn’t know if the rider wanted him to go or stalk; rate to speed. It was his first attempt at 2 turns and it was an eventful effort. Look for a more relaxed hold on him today and more run, too. This guy broke the maiden by nearly 9. Talent is there, and the trainer knows how to spot them, too. I go here. And, I go big. I bet the 2 to win/place/show. Sternly. I box the 2-8 in one exacta. I will key the 2 over/under the numbers listed in two smaller and I will key the 2 over/under the “all button” in two more.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene