|BC Filly & Mare Turf|
|Sistercharlie||Rushing Fall||Harvey’s Lil Goil||Mean Mary||Lady Prancealot||Cayenne Pepper||2-6-9/4-12-14-1/10-11-13-7/13|
(Sistercharlie / Photo by Holly M. Smith)
We have gotten so used to Chad Brown winning all of these types of races. Haven’t we?
If there is a G1 Stakes on the sod, then it has to be a horse trained by Chad Brown.
So it seems.
So it has become.
So we have come to expect.
And, the man is loaded against this year. Maybe. Just maybe.
There is Sistercharlie (2), who has raced only two times this year for Brown since running 3rd in this event last year at Santa Anita. Came from her normal “back-of-the-pack” position to get within 21/2 lengths of the wire then. Won this event in 2018, when it was held at Churchill Downs. Now, she is back for a third bite of the apple here at Keeneland where she is a perfect 1-for-1 in her career.
But now as a 6YO is she the same horse that reeled off six wins in a row from 2018 to 2019? Is she still Brown’s #1 contender? Maybe. Just maybe.
There is also Rushing Fall, who has won all three of her starts this year for Team Brown. The speedster recently annexed the G1 Diana Stakes at Saratoga in August to run her career record to a sparkling 11-2-0 in 14 starts. Earnings now exceed $2.5 million. She moves into the BC action this year after skipping it both of the past two seasons. Is she Brown’s newest #1 contender? Maybe. Just maybe.
We shall see. But, then again, we often see Brown do very well in these races, too. In fact, we have come to expect it, right?
Here’s our analysis: 2-6-9/4-12-14-1/10-11-13-7/13 (Keep an eye out at the end of our review for our picks. Another couple of Longshot possibles).
- Sistercharlie (Myboycharlie — Starlet’s Sister, by Galileo): This mare has been one of the world’s best grass horses for the past three years. Over her career, she has made 17 starts and has amassed a sparkling record of 10 wins, 3 seconds and 3 thirds. Her career earnings now exceed $3.745 million. But there is there a dent in this one’s armor? Last year, she rolled into the Breeders’ Cup on a 3-race win streak and was the odds-on favorite to win the masterpiece again. She ran third in that one, failing to muster enough out of her customary late rally to catch the leaders. And? More troubling? She has returned this year to run just twice — finishing third in each of those, too. She still comes late. She still gives all. But is her “all” still good enough. I hope so. Sure would like to see this one go out with a huge victory. She has earned that.
- Rushing Fall (More Than Ready — Autumnal, by Forestry): This is the other formidable foe that will get the tack from the best “Brown” team that is not UPS. This filly is a Keeneland “expert.” She has run over this grass 6 times in her life. She has headed to the winner’s circle after 5 of them. And, she is a perfect 3-for-3 this year. On paper? Looks tough as parchment. But? There’s always a but…she is very speedy, and she will have to carry her speed to a distance that she has never run before. As in? Ever. Can she do that? Maybe. Just maybe.
- Harvey’s Lil Goil (American Pharoah — Gloria S, by Tapit): This is an improving 3YO, and she will step up to face older ones for the first time in her career today. That is never an easy task, especially when you consider the quality of this “older ones.” But she has a very nice stalking style and she has been on an absolute roll for trainer Bill Mott since getting over to the grass course on a more regular basis. Ran huge at KY Downs. Won over this course last time out in the G1 QE II Challenge Cup. Has a chance.
- Mean Mary (Scat Daddy — Karlovy Vary, by Dynaformer): This lady has a wonderful grass pedigree and in her career has never been worse than 2nd when running over the sod. Has speed too, though, and is likely to hook up early and often with Rushing Fall. Could be the downfall of both of them.
- Lady Prancealot (Sir Prancealot — Naqrah, by Haatef): This is my “Longshot Special of the Day.” The 4YO filly is a closer, but she won’t have to come from as far back as Sistercharlie. In fact, she should be about half as far back as the top pick In 20 lifetime starts over the sod, she has a 4-4-4 mark. But this year, she does not have a win in 5 starts. I just think that gal has the closing ability to be a tough out, if she can find the space for the final furlong of the race. Chance.
- Cayenne Pepper (Australia — Muwakaba, by Elusive Quality): My top pick from the Europeans. I use.
How Do We Play It:
I bet Sisterhcarlie and Lady Prancealot across the board. I will also spread a little love on Cayenne Pepper, too. I will then box my top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.