Every so often, we will be addressing a few things: comments, decisions, people, whatever that – for one reason or another – should be tossed into the literary “muck pit.”

It is in the spirit of cleanliness, recycling, and protecting the environment that we offer this service of “addressing the muck” – free of charge. After all, someone has to do it, right?

And, it didn’t take long for us to find a few pounds of, well, manure. Here is our SIXTH EDITION:

Daily Racing Form Got the Hard Boot Out of Churchill Downs — For Good Reasons

At the end of Churchill Downs’ Fall meet, much was made about “The Daily Racing Form” no longer being sold at the historic racetrack. Instead, Churchill began offering a new product produced by Brisnet.com.

(In the spirit of full disclosure, Churchill Downs’ owns Brisnet.com and they have racing data and past performance information that they format for handicappers, as well.)

The DRF immediately called foul and began whining to anyone and everyone that would lend a tender ear:

How could the long-time publication, of which many horseplayers grew up reading and digesting from cover to cover, be treated so rudely?

How could an industry institution, which has been around about as long as the game itself when shown the door?

The gullible, namely Ray Paulick, took the bait and grumbled, as the gullible normally do. Paulick even brought up a silly, meaningless, and senseless reference to when former Churchill Downs’ President Tom Meeker expelled a pencil salesman some two or three decades ago.

What a hard-hitting bit of journalism and investigative reporting that turned out to be. Way to go there, Ray. You’ve uncovered a true “pattern of behavior here” since the two isolated incidents were nearly 30 years apart and had no relevance to each other at all. Maybe you can submit this fine bit of journalism for an Eclipse Award. At least it isn’t something that you just cut and pasted from another site. There’s a start.

But, seriously, folks, who didn’t think this was coming.

Really?

What did the DRF think would happen when it launched its’ own Advance Deposit Wagering platform to compete with Churchill Downs’ TwinSpires.com?

They went into business to attract, er, steal, wagering customers from the racetrack itself, and one of its’ major revenue sources, TwinSpires.com, over to their own wagering site.

In short, it would be like me selling beer to a liquor store, but then showing up there, setting up a booth in the parking lot, and asking their customers to buy the beer directly from me, instead.

How long do you think it would take before the store owner showed me the sidewalk?

If a newspaper wants to get in the gaming business, and compete against the very racetracks in which they cover and have made money off of for low these many years, what in the world is wrong with a racetrack getting in the publishing business to compete with the newspaper business?

There is an easy answer.  There is nothing wrong with it.  It is called “tit for tat” in the business world, and it should have been expected a long time ago, and, to be honest, I am shocked that it took this long.

Don’t get me wrong. I love the DRF. That’s what I grew up with, a long, long time ago. When I lived in Midway, my pharmacist, Arnie Kemper, would drive my daily copy up to the house and leave it on my porch. Now, that is customer service.

(Cliff Guilliams)

(Logan Bailey)

I used to share an office with the chart callers, like Cliff Guilliams. And, later on when I ran Kentucky Off-Tracking Betting, Inc., I got to share another office space with my dear, longtime friend Logan Bailey. I sure liked that man.

It is where I met my great friend, colleague and resident barbeque expert, Dan Liebman. He is still one of the best in the business, when he takes time to pick up the keyboard and stroke a few keys.

(Marty McGee)

And, I still read, religiously, the columns of Kentucky correspondent Marty McGee, who, along with his colleagues all over the country, is truly the backbone of the DRF. Love the guy.

It was where I read about the horses, trainers, jockeys and owners. It was where I learned how to handicap the races. And, even until this very day, it is what I go to my favorite liquor store, Evergreen Liquors, nearly on a daily basis, to pick up my copy.

The damn ink still rubs off on my hands. Sometimes the pages still stick together, where the cutter hasn’t done a clean job. And, I hate it when they insert another track’s PPs right in the middle of a race and I have to go hunt down the rest of the entries that I am handicapping.

The price tag is high, and I know they would rather I go to the web-based version and print off my own – which I do sometimes when I am at the lake.

But, all in all, I still love picking up my copy every day. And, I keep them for days, months, and sometimes years – piling up in this corner or that closet. For some reason, I think I may need them for research some time.

In short, I am a loyal fan and customer. Have been for years, and years, and years. Come to my office – which I now have 3 of – and you will find a copy or two somewhere in the fray.

But when the DRF decided to compete for Churchill Downs’ betting dollars with their own ADW, the writing wasn’t on the paper, any more. It was on the wall.

I don’t know if the DRF would have ever been barred from the track if they didn’t have its’ own ADW or not. Don’t know if Churchill would have asked on-track fans to convert over to Brisnet.com any way. Guess we may never know.

But the truth is that the DRF sure made the decision easier for the legendary racetrack, who now may just become the owner of the game’s next legendary publication. And, no matter how you cut it, you can’t blame Churchill Downs for making the call.

It was business. It is business. And, as a publicly traded company, the decision makers probably had a fiduciary responsibility to its’ stock holders to at least consider this move.

So, if you want to hate on someone (including you, there, Ray), you should probably look at the instigator of the fight and not the ones that may have retaliated, with just cause.

Don’t know if I can convert, at my advanced age, over to Brisnet.com. Went there for the first time today. I will check it out. I will give it a try. Didn’t ever think I would drive a Toyota, either, but I have a FourRunner in the driveway now and I love the thing.

Times do change. Some times, even, for the better. Some times forever.

(Keeneland)

Keeneland’s Fall Race Meet Solid – And Here’s The Real Reasons

Despite what you might read these days, Keeneland is doing just fine.

The historic, stone buildings are still standing erect and tall. The sales pavilion, abuzz for all of September and November, is still the home of the world’s largest, most popular, and most significant auctions of Thoroughbred horses. And, the relatively new dirt racing surface draws praise from every top trainer in the world.

The track’s administration continues to investigate new, innovative, and aggressive ways to expand its’ footprint in Kentucky – to increase racing opportunities for all breeds, and to create more pari-mutuel wagering opportunities for all consumers. Hopefully, they will be allowed – along with their partners over in Louisville at Churchill Downs – to invest millions in creating new racetracks and additional revenues for purses, and improvements.

And, the fans flock to the grounds that surround the monument of a racetrack in groves that would remind you of a Fall Saturday on a college campus. Tailgates are down. Spirits, of all kinds, are up. Acres of green fields are covered so densely the cars look like ants at a picnic. And, fun abounds. Nowhere in this country – as in no-damn-where – are the Thoroughbred racing fans more loyal; more dedicated; more handsome; more fun.

So, when you hear, or read the self-proclaimed experts (?) in the industry proclaim that Keeneland, of all places, had a bad Fall race meet statistically, please understand these quotations about statistics:

  • “There are three types of lies – lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Attributed to Benjamin Disraeli.
  • “Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.” Author, Mark Twin.
  • Statistics are no substitute for judgment.” From our own, “The Great Compromiser” Henry Clay.

So, when you hear, or read the frantic calls that the “Sky is Falling,” from those that neither care to examine the facts, or simply opine without research, let’s attempt, just for the sake of argument here, to interject some logic.

The fact is that Keeneland’s overall handle for the 17-day race meeting was down in 2017. On that, we all can agree.

But when you start to look at the meet under a microscope, to try and determine, the “reasons,” then that’s where you really run into the debate. More importantly, that’s where you really run into the frantic.

Because?

Because most people don’t take the time to do any analysis. They simply speculate. And, spout. Easier, that way, don’t you know.

Plus, if they did any true analysis, it may just disapprove their theory. And, what good is that when you have a point to make. Right?

There are the self-proclaimed bettor’s advocates, who claim they are responsible for the downturn in handle, due to their constant call for a “betting boycott” of the Keeneland meet. Seems these peeps were pissed that Keeneland raised their prices to equivalently the same levels as nearly every other major racing jurisdiction in North America, by increasing the takeout on win-place-show bets and exotics like exactas and trifectas.

Yet, if that were the case, and these bullhorn protests and post time pickets were truly effective, then why was the handle “up” on nearly half of the 17 days during the meet? Did the boycott only apply on an “every other day” concept?

Doubt it.

There were the knee-jerk reactors, who claim they “told you so” Keeneland, by hypothesizing that any increase in take-out will have a negative impact on overall handle. Seems these peeps have declared themselves to be mathematical wizards of handicapping philosophy and handle servants, despite the fact that hey have never studied equations above entry-level, college freshman algebra – at best. Credentials please?

Yet, if that were truly the case, why do handles always fluctuate from year to year, even when there is no change whatsoever in the takeout rates? And, why do they seemingly always return to similar levels at the major tracks when you average them out over several years – and not just on a singular 17-day span?

The truth is, always has been, and always will be that handle for a 17-day race meeting is based on a number of fluctuating characters, set of circumstances, and facts.

So, let’s go back to the facts, shall we:

The fact is the 2017 Keeneland Fall meeting is being compared to and contrasted against the track’s all-time leading, and record setting meet.

The fact is the 2017 Keeneland Fall meeting had more rain than the previous year, washing several key races off the turf surface and over to the dirt track – resulting in scratches; loss of betting interests. And, unfortunately, these rain events even caused Stakes races to be displaced.

The fact is the 2017 Keeneland Fall meeting did raise its’ takeout. But before the “Boycott Bullies” can take credit for hurting one of the world’s best racing partners, does it matter that the increase in takeout simply matched the takeout at Churchill Downs? Does it matter that the increase was less than 9/10ths of the blended takeout at Belmont Park and all NYRA tracks? Does it matter than the increase still left Keeneland’s takeout less than that at Gulfstream Park, or the current Tampa Bay Park take? Or that the increase only pushed Keeneland 2/10ths higher than Santa Anita? Simply put, Keeneland raised its’ prices, yes. But only to the same levels, essentially, as every other major racing jurisdiction in the country. And, to increase their purses for race meetings to come.

So, truth known, there were many variables to consider. Right?

But let’s add one more, can we?

Unlike the other “instant analysis” experts, we did a little deeper dive into this Fall’s meet. In fact, we created our own spreadsheet on every race held at this Fall’s meet. We inputted eight different payout numbers for each of the 160 races conducted, and then added a ninth frame that indicated where the favorite finished in each of those races. In short, we inputted 1,440 numerical pieces to examine.

What we found were a few interesting factoids, which, in our view, should be added to this debate and discussion, as well.

  1. The post time favorites won only 42 of the 160 races at this Fall’s meet. That is an average of .2625%. The national average, at all racetracks combined, is normally around .3333%. So, as a matter of logic, the amount of money being returned to the bettors was down somewhat – due to the increase in the takeout. But the amount of money being returned to the betting public was going to fewer people, too, due to the fact that the favorites did not fare well. In short, that has an impact on the overall “churn.” And, thus, an impact on the overall handle.
  2. The “average” win payoff in the 160 races was a whopping $13.79 – which equates to the average winner went off at odds of nearly 6-to-1. Again, the fact that this type of “longshot” was winning more often, obviously has an impact on “churn” and “overall handle.”
  3. The predominance of the “upset winners” occurred in races 4-5-6-7-8 – in the middle of the race card, in other words. Thus, as the evidence shows, is that the vast majority of the bettors were losing their money to the fewer in a true pari-mutuel betting scheme. The only result is that there had to be less betting revenue for the majority by the end of the race card. In short, handle per race went down as the card went along.

We are currently looking at the exotic payouts with more in-depth, but it only stands to reason that if the average price on top of the exotics is 6-to-1, then the prices for all the exactas, trifectas and the Pick 3s and Pick 4s were, on average, higher, too. And we will continue to compare this data with race results from the past couple of years to see if there is any additional trends.

But I did this work to demonstrate a few simple facts:

  1. Determining the reasons for an increase or a decrease in annual handle is a tricky proposition, which, in all probability, has many determining factors.
  2. It would be a much better barometer to compare groups of years vs. groups of years as opposed to one year vs. another – particularly when the same size is only 17 days.

In short, taking credit for hurting another person’s business is never a good way to build credibility for one’s argument. But, in truth, this supposed “boycott” had probably less to do with this year’s Keeneland meet than any other determining factor –but, in particular, less than the fact that the post-time favorites won less than 27% of the time.

In conclusion, to take pen in hand and to announce that something is a failure, Bill Finley, is pretty easy to do. To prove it to be so? Well, that takes more than a pronouncement.

Only time can truly tell, but my guess is that Keeneland’s handle will return to its normal levels in the months, meets to come. My guess is that purses will continue to climb, like they have every year over the past. My guess is that the take-out will stay the same. My guess, Keeneland continues to be one of the best race meetings in the world. Bar none.

And, all the rattling of swords, will soon be a mere echo in the wind of change today and the success of tomorrow.