|Day Results||11 / 4-4-5|
|2020 Overall 1451||1451 / 512-487-615|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.29%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.08%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –940-1,451||64.78%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 7-11||63.64%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 4-11||36.36%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 0-0-0-0||00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 194-66-44-27||34.02% Win / 70.62% ITM|
(We are hoping for another big day at Indy Grand and another big race with Diamond Solitaire)
It’s a busy day for the ole’ handicapping pen and mind.
It’s a big day, too.
We return to action at the world’s most famed and greatest racetrack — Churchill Downs.
We also return to action at Indy Grand, where our very own Diamond Solitaire will run in the Indiana Stallion Fillies Stakes.
So, whirlwind of a day and emotions, too. Wish us some luck, if you are so inclined. We can use all the boosters that we can muster.
Here’s a look at both of the cards. Hope you have some luck. We are hoping, too.
1st: 2-6-3/5-1/4…Trainer Robertino Diodoro has a double whammy going in the first today. Both figure in the equation and are probably the horses to beat, but both appear to be a bit vulnerable, as well. Icatiro (2) comes in off two straight seconds and looks best. But? Has raced at Churchill Downs 11 times to date, and has only a win and two seconds to show on the resume. Barn is winning at a .22% rate on the third start off the layoff and .26% in the claiming ranks. Strolling (6) will make the first start for the same barn as the top pick. Was claimed out of the last race and the trainer wins with .25% in the first start off the purchase. Has never hit the board in 6 starts at Churchill Downs, though. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed.
2nd: 6-7/8-3-5/4-1…American Humor (6) will be making the 2nd start off a layoff, and the barn wins with .23% of those kind. Should be fitter for this one and the barn wins with .24% with those in the MCL ranks. Conquistador Show (7) will go from the turf to dirt and the barn wins with .11% of those. Work at Ellis Park on Oct. 10 was spot on. Could fit in this spot today. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exactas. I will key the 6-7 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
3rd: 4-5-3/1-6/2…All Eyes West (4) drops into the claiming ranks for the first time and the barn wins with .22% of those. Gets the blinkers added for the first time, too, and the barn wins with .22% of those adopting the shades. Had a rough trip last time out. Can toss. Race before broke the maiden in style at Ellis Park. Look for a return to that level of performance today. The rider won with this one two back. Must be a really good colt. Seminole Warrior (5) has hit the board in each of the last three. Ran a good one at a huge price at KEE on Oct. 11. If he can duplicate that performance today, he may be hard to handle at the wire. Hoof Prince (3) drops into the claiming ranks for the first time, too, and the barn wins with .24% in the claiming ranks. Gets the Commonwealth’s best rider these days. Barn hot. Adds up. Must use for me. I bet the 4-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-3 over/under the 5-1-6-2 in two smaller units.
4th: 3-2/5-4/7-1…Paddy O’Dini (3) is another class-dropper for the barn of Diodoro — who is winning at a .23% clip this year in 1,005 races. Drops from the $15,000 ranks into the bargain bin today. Won here in May at the $10,000 level. Should fit with these. Looks to be the one to beat. Key Play of the Day. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 3 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.
5th: 6-1/8-5/9-7…Magic Solution (6) drops into the claiming ranks for the first time today and the barn wins with .23% of them. Returns to a sprint distance and the dirt today, as well. Should help in both regards. Jockey has won 3 of 5 with this trainer over the last 14 days. Could pop here. Carry On (1) is a first timer for the barn of Brad Cox. He wins with .20% of those that debut in the MCL ranks. The rail is winning at a nice .23% clip, but it is a difficult post for a first time starter, too. At 7 furlongs? Even tougher, because they start in the chute. Has to pop and go. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the top 2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
6th: 4-3-5/2-6/1…Shashashakemeup (4) is not the best of horse names ever, but the 3YO son of Shackleford does have a good shot in this spot today. Makes the 3rd start off the layup and the barn wins with .20% of those. Also, ran up against the likes of Rushie in the G2 Pat Day Mile two races back. Ran good enough to be 4th that day and beaten less than 4. Now, the connections drop into the claiming ranks for the first time. Barn wins with .22% of those. Guy has faced some real good ones. If his self esteem is not broken yet, he should relish this class relief. Uncork the Bottle (3) is what I need to do today. Won last time out when getting back to the dirt. Over a fast dirt track? Has 2 wins in 3 tries. Take note. I bet the 4-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-3 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
7th: 4-3-(11)-8/(15)-(17)/(12)-1-5-7-(13)/(14)-9-10…This is originally scheduled to be a turf event going 11/16 miles. If it stays on the sod, I will go with my main numbers first. If it is moved? Then, I have to figure in the top 2 numbers from the MTO entries — 15 and 17. So, complicated race. For the sake of argument, I will lean on Laker Mamba (4). This son of Nyquist (who is off to an amazing start at stud) ran very well here on Sept. 2. That was a race moved off the sod to the main track. Gives confidence either way today. My choice. I stick here. Loumo (3) is a 2YO son of Uncle Mo and has credentials for both surfaces, too. Ran very well in both the first two starts. Returns as a beaten favorite today, and the barn wins with .30% of those. Comes from a dam who has 2 turf winners, too. I stick here, too. So? I go all in on the 4-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers — no matter who they are — in the exacta. I will key the 4-3 over/under the next 5 numbers in two smaller units.
8th: 2-4/3-5-6/9-1…The obvious pick and selection here is Long Term Thinking (4). This 4YO son of Quality Raod has raced 5 times in the career and has 5 seconds. Has faced tougher. Has faced weaker. Has been right there every time. One of these days, he should win. Right? Well, I’m of the opinion that some horses just love to be runner-up. For a long time. They get right there. They have a chance to win. And, somehow and someway, they figure out a way to lose. May happen today, too. Lake Nimrod (2) is my choice to upset the Long Term Thinking campaign. This 3YO son of Super Saver ran a real good one to be 2nd two back at Ellis. Drops into the MCL ranks for the first time and the barn wins with .30% of those. I go here. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-4 solid in one exacta. I will key the “all button” over the 4 in a smaller version, too. Cover.
9th: 1/3-4-2-10/7/9…Stand Tall (1) is my Key Play of the Day. This 3YO daughter of Uncle Mo is coming off a 5th in the Dueling Grounds Oaks. Ran less than 4 behind the duo of Micheline and Harvey’s Little Goil that day. Both of those came back to post huge runs at Keeneland in a G1 event. Before that, Stand Tall won at KEE in July to break the maiden. Has trained well since both of those and gets the rider who won on this one back in the irons here. Has experience over this sod. Love this one in this spot. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed.
10th: 6-7/9-3/2-8-1/4…This is not the best race ever carded at Churchill Downs, but you know what they say and write? There is a winner in every race. So? Let’s try to figure out who the likely candidates are in this one. I will go with Drink (6) — which is what I need right now. Right. Now. This 4YO drops from the $20,000 category to the bargain bin for the first time. Ran well here against better in September. Barn wins with .22% when dropping this much at once. Clever trainer who spots his horses very well and wins at a .19% tune. My pick. Allen (7) could be an upset possibility. Won over the slop two races back up in Cincy. Faces tougher in this spot, probably. But the trainer is winning at a .22% clip this year in 109 starts for a reason. May add some value to your ticket. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-7-9 in one exacta. I will key the 6 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
1st: 2-9-4/7-6-(11)/8…(Just Selections Here Guys; got to get on the road…again)
3rd: 4/6-2-9/3-1…Our first “Key Play of the Day” — 4
7th: 2-5/4-7-1-6/3…Indiana Stallion Fillies Stakes…We face off today against our arch rival — Hungarian Princess. This filly’s only loss came against open company and against the 2YO standout Coach. Yep. That’s the one who just won the Rags to Riches Stakes at Churchill Downs this past weekend. We will have our hands full, but Diamond Solitaire is doing well, too. We may want more ground. But we may want a win today, too. I’m all in. Let’s go Diamond.
9th: 3-4/7-5-6/2-1…Lady Fog Horn Stakes…Top two numbers in here look like the standouts. At least they do to me.
10th: 1-3-2/7-8/4-5…Crown Ambassador Stakes…The #1 is 1-5 in the ML. Wow. That’s strong. But I give the 3-2 a shot. Box?
11th: 8-4-3/7/9-10-1/2-6…Unreachable Star Stakes…Another huge favorite in the #8, but I will surround sound with the 4-3.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene