|Day Results||9 / 4-4-4|
|2020 Overall 1597||1597 / 564-543-689|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.32%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.49%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,036-1,597||64.87%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 83-128||64.84%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 43-128||33.59%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 19-10-1-3||52.63% Win / 73.68% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 216-79-45-30||36.57% Win / 71.30% ITM|
A good day at the oval on Thursday. Four winners in nine races. Had exactas that returned $5.20, $8.50, $29.70, $2.70, $12.40 and $22.30 for each $1 played. And, we turned the key on the final Pick 4 of the day, too.
Our two Key Plays of the Day both won, as well.
So, we turn to Friday. And, we turn on some more good luck — hopefully.
At least it will be some good luck for the McLean’s this weekend. Headed to the lake. Soon. New outdoor TV, thanks to the lovely LA, now up and running. And, good weather to be hat.
So, a warm fire. Football and horse racing on the tube. A beautiful view of the lake. What’s more to have than a few winners, right?
Here’s a look at our picks:
1st: 5-2-6/9-3/1…Molly’s Game (5) won here on Nov. 4 at this same level and finished strong to gallop out and off by 21/4 lengths in front of the closest rival. Big improvement over the previous run, which was against much better. Fits at this level. Has 3 wins and a second in 10 starts here. Two seconds in 4 tries at this distance. Barn wins with .40% trying to repeat in the claiming ranks — and that is with 25 runners to try. Wins at .26% rate when won the last race. One to beat. Fun Paddy (2) drops down two columns in the claiming ranks today and the barn wins with .23% when they take that drastic of a plunge. Moves to the dirt today and trainer wins with .21% when making this surface switch. Rider is after the title here and is hot, hot, hot. Has gone 9-3-2 in the last 31 mounts. I Dream of Lois (6) goes from a sprint to a route today and the ban wins with .12% of those kind. Has a 2-2-1 mark in 7 tries at this distance. Should love the extra ground. Chance. I bet the 2 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 5-2 over/under the numbers listed in two smaller units.
2nd: 4-1-5/6/3/2…Recoded (4) was claimed last time out when the 3YO Honor Code filly won for fun here on Nov. 4. Barn wins with .17% when starting back for the first time after the purchase. Goes to one of the meet’s top riders in the irons and has won two of the last 3 outs. In 6 tries here, has 2 wins and a second. Should be a tough out on the front end. Saintsation (1) drops into the claiming ranks after a couple of poor performances against much better. Does have a win and a second in 3 trips here and the rail is winning at a .19% rate this meet. Chance. My Aunt Mims (5) goes for the barn of Robertino Diodoro, who is below his yearly average here this meet. The one moved to the dirt last time and nearly won as the favorite. Returns today for a barn that wins with .28% of beaten favorites. Look for more out of this one here. I bet the 4-5 (take note) across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units.
3rd: 5-3-1/4-7/8/2…Long Term Thinking (5) moves in the claiming ranks today after a near miss last time out for $30,000. In 6 career starts? Has 5 seconds and a third. Has to win sometime. Right? I think today. Look at the rider switch here. Interesting. Very interesting. War Detonator (3) drops a rung in the MCL ranks and this one ran 2nd as a beaten favorite here on Nov. 5. This barn wins with .19% when returning as a beaten fan’s favorite. Has 3 2nds in a row. Has to win sometime. Right? Maybe. Storm King (1) is the other “Asmussen horse” in here and the one that the rider picks or the trainer picks for the barn’s go-to jockey. Drops from the MSW ranks into the MCL for the first time. Barn wins with .17% of those. One would think that this may be the barn’s top pick? Maybe. I bet the 5-1 across the board — taking both of the Asmussen horses — and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 4-7 in two smaller units.
4th: 3-7-6/4/1-2/5…Uncork the Bottle (3) drops all the way from the $50,00 ranks to the $20,000 tag today and the barn wins with .29% when they fall down the steps that much. This one won at Saratoga just two starts ago for higher and against tougher. Trainer is having a super year and gets a top jockey up. One to beat, IMO. Riverboat Gambler (7) goes for one of the top young trainers in the game today, and he finished Thursday’s card with a very nice winner that gave us the Pick 4. Thanks Tommy. This one has run two solid races at this same level. Barn wins at a .22% clip in the claiming ranks, and has a 1-6-3 mark in 13 starts here this meet. Horses are running. And, running good. High Proof (6) is a use underneath for me. Has faced much, much, much tougher and may stick for part of this equation. I bet the 3-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. Will key the top 3 over/under the 4 in two smaller units.
5th: 10-7/4-12-3-1A/11-9-1-5…Easy to Bless (10) didn’t get any favors when they pulled the pill and drew this post. But the 2YO daughter of Flat Out could rebound with authority today. Ran super in the career debut at KEE on Oct. 10. Ran awful in the subsequent race at Churchill Downs on Oct. 31. But just feel apart in that one when the front runners went :21 & change on the front end. Couldn’t keep that up. Gets the rider who finished 2nd with her back today. Drops into the claiming ranks for the first time and the barn wins with .26% of those. From MSW all the way to $15,000. Can you say “claim drop?” Spy a Star (7) drops from $30,000 to $15,000 for this one, too. Ran a solid second last time out against the tougher foes. Should be a factor, if she can negotiate a clean trip late. Closer. I bet the 10 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the 4-12-3-1A-11-9 in two smaller units.
6th: 6-1-7/2-3/5-4…Jalen Journey (6) comes form the barn of Steve Asmussen, who is having another super meet here this Fall and this one drops into the claiming ranks for the 2nd start off a long layup. Barn wins with .19% when returning for the 2nd time and this one ran against G1 and G1 company just a year ago. If he is anywhere close to that fit and form again? Look out. Moonoverseba (1) has hit the board in the last 3 outings and 4 of the last 5. Barn wins with .22% when making the 2nd start off a layup, too. Gets a top rider back in the irons and they have teamed up to win at a .27% rate in the last 15 races together. Chance. Ruler of the Nile (7) has won 5 of 6 races at this track. That is 5. Out of 6. Hmmm. I bet the 6-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over (only) the 2-3 in a smaller unit.
7th: 6/9-8/7-3/1/5-2…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Patty H (6). This 2YO daughter of Flatter is coming off a near miss win last time out and the barn wins with .28% when making the 3rd start off a layup. Barn is winning at a .21% clip here this meet, and is one of the best conditioners of fillies in the entire world. This one could join the ranks in the near future. Probably worth a look at the $150,000 price tag here. Seriously. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then key the 6 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.
8th: 7-2/3/4-6-1…American Mandate (7) is another from Team Asmussen loading the gate today. This 4YO son of Strong Mandate is coming off a nose loss at KEE when the race was moved from the sod over to the main track. Will try the dirt again today and has 2 seconds and a third in 3 tries over the dirt here. In 19 career starts? One win. One. Single. Win. But has 8 seconds and 5 thirds. Underneath maybe? Royal Daaher (2) has not raced since February and the barn wins with only .08% of those coming back off that extended of a vacation. But…There’s always a but, right? This one ran 4th to Volatile here lsat Fall and has been working lights out for this one. Has speed. Can use it. Can use it often. Have to consider. I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exacta. I will key the 7-2 over (only) the 3-4-6-1 in a smaller version.
9th: 7-5-2/6-3/9…Lady McKenzie (7) drops from the $20,000 tag to the $10,000 level today for a barn that wins with .21% when plunging this much in one swoop. Nearly won the last against the tougher comp, too. In 7 starts here? Has only a second and a third, but should like this class relief. Skyvalue (5) will add the blinkers today and the barn is 0-for-3 when it puts the shades into play. But this one won last time out over the slop at Indy Grand and now comes here where he has a second in two previous tries. Chance. Double Oaked (2) nearly won at this level last time out and has returned to work super good for this one. New barn operator is off to a very nice start, winning at a .23% clip in the first 13 starts. This one 0-for-10 here, but does have 4 seconds and a third. Underneath? I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers under/over the 6-3 in two smaller units. I spread out here and use the top 5 numbers in the horizontal plays.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene