|Day Results||10 / 2-5-4|
|2020 Overall 1539||1539 / 542-522-659|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.22%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.32%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,000-1,544||64.77%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 52-80||65.00%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 25-80||31.25%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 10-3-1-1||30.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 207-72-45-28||34.78% Win / 70.05% ITM|
We saw a paltry sum collected in the win category on Thursday. Just 2 winners out of the 10 races carded.
But we did win 5 exactas — all in the modest bracket — to help relieve some of the pain and agony on me, to quote a lyric on the old TV series “Here Haw.”
We are looking for brighter days ahead and bigger payoffs at the end of the rainbow. What better day to create some good luck than on “Friday the 13th?”
Here we go:
1st: 1-5/4/2-3…A short field to kick start the day’s activities, but it should be a whirlwind 6-furlong sprint. I will saddle up with my great friend and trainer Tom Amoss and his 4YO Munnings filly A Thousand Reasons (1). Draws the rail here and should be able to scoot boogie early and often with a clean break. Has only raced once since February. That was here on Sept. 2. Tired mightily that day and spit the bit, but drops into a much better spot here and the works have been solid since the last effort. Exercise makes the whole body better and this one could be sitting on go-go today. Nomizar (5) won by 10 last time out at KEE, and that was on Oct. 9. Has returned to work lights out since. Moves up in class today and faces much tougher. But this one is trained by Robertino Diodoro — who has won with .23% of his 1,035 starters this year. Some win by 10. Like this one did last time out. One to beat. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
2nd: 6-3-5/4…Fast Cash (6) is a closer in a short field, and that can be a very vulnerable position. But this one won here just two back to break the maiden in style. Was claimed that day, and those connections ran him back against better at KEE on Oct. 11. Broke poorly and came from a long way back that day, but finished strong to be 3rd against much tougher. Was claimed out of that one, too. Now, this 3YO Malibu Moon colt will race for the third trainer in the last three races. Barn wins with .16% on first attempt, but with only .02% going a route the first time. Trainer also wins with .13% when dropping off a claim purchase. Will be rolling late. And Seek (3) has only won once in the last two years and 17 races. But has been facing much tougher and gets the plunger here today. Barn wins with .27% when dropping this much, and with .19% when going from a sprint to a route. Will be rolling on top. Chance to hold on at wire. Comedian (5) goes for a HOF trainer and drops off a closing 4th last time out. Been gelded since then and now will race for the first time with the ultimate equipment change. Wake up? I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta.
3rd: 8-6/7-3…Got your running shoes with you today? You might have a shot here. Seriously. Not kidding. Big Biz (8) will get a very reluctant nod in this spot. Gets a huge, huge, huge rider switch. Has hit the board in each of the last two. And, the barn wins with .13% when making the 2nd start off a layup. Good enough here. Good enough for me. Don’t Recall (6) will be making the 2nd start of the career and first since March. Ran against MSW company that day. Gets to the $15,000 tag today. Working good for the return match. Chance in this spot. I bet the 8-6 across the board and then box those two in one exacta. I key the 8-6 over/under the 7-3 in two smaller units.
4th: 4-3-5/1/2-6…Joy of Treasure (4) will be trying to convert from the grass over to the main dirt track today. For the first time. Ever. Has trained over it. Obviously. But this will be a different look and feel. Some like it. Some don’t. This barn wins with .20% when making this type of surface conversion. Gets a top rider up for the first time and will get the blinkers for the first time, too. Barn wins with .29% when getting the shades added. Lots of new things going on here to help shake the 2020s. May work. Spun Easy (3) moves up in class after an easy win last time out here on Oct. 30. Wheels right back for a new barn operation, who claimed this one for the $40,000 tag. Has raced here 3 times in the career. Has 2 wins. But? The barn wins at a paltry .08% when racing for the first time with a new claim partner. Tonal Vision (5) is one of two from the barn of Mike Maker, who is having another solid meet. This one won the last time out, too, and now climbs the ladder a bit. Barn wins with .21% when racing for the 2nd time off a layup and a top rider is up. Has won with .22% of the last 50 rides for this barn. Big shot here coming from off the pace. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two smaller units.
5th: 9-6-3/4/2-5…This looks too good to be true. Ghost Fighter (9) a 3YO son of Tapit and still equipped with all the essential parts and ingredients runs for $15,000 tag today. Last time out, ran last for $75,000 price. Barn wins with .40% when offering a “close out” sale and with .17% of those making the 3rd start off a layup. Started the career promising last year. Now? Not so much. But a nice work here on Nov. 8 and looks to be the one to beat here. Samson Lee (6) ran a tiring 5th on debut at KEE in mid-October. “Place” horse that day came right back to win the next outing. Should show some speed and the barn wins with .30% when routing for the first time. And, that is with a 43-horse sample size. Should be right there at the wire. I bet the 9-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4 in two smaller units.
6th: 3-8-5/4-1-10/9-6/2…The first grass event of the day and the first “Longshot Special of the Day.” I love the chances of Violenza (3), who has been listed at 12-1 in the ML by Brisnet.com. Granted, this one didn’t show a whole lot in the last race — a race where several others in here did show a lot more. But if you toss that one out (and I can and do), then this one figures prominently. Won at Ellis Park to break the maiden on Aug. 22. Came right back to win the next out at KY Downs, and that is always tough to do. Didn’t break good enough in the last out and languished behind. Wants to be much closer up and should be with a better start here. I’m taking a shot. Dance Rhythms (8) easily distanced our top pick last time out, when running 2nd for the second time in a row. This one has hit the board in each of the last 4 and has a 5-2-3 record in 15 tries at this distance. Veteran sprinter on the sod. But? Only 1-of-4 here. At a low price? Not me. Sold It (5) is a 4YO daughter of The Factor, who I saw at Lane’s End Farm just this week. Old man looking good. This one could, too. Has a win at the distance. Gets a top rider, who has won with .22% of the last 50 rides for this barn. Trainer is winning at .20% clip this meet. Adds up to contender. I bet the 3-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the 3-5 over/under the 8-4-1-10-9-2 in two smaller units.
7th: 5-9/1-6-7/4-8/1A-2…Back Ring Luck (5) looks like my first “Key Play of the Day.” Ran at this same level last time out at KEE. Was beat a dirty nose right on the wire. This 2YO gelded son of Malibu Moon — who cost $32,000 at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale — had to believe he won that day. Set all the fractions until the last tick. Has run two good ones in a row with the blinkers attached. Gets a solid rider back in the irons. Trainer is winning at a .21% rate this year with 506 starters. My solid choice. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-9 in one exacta. I key the 5 over/under the 9-1-6-7-4-8 in two smaller units.
8th: 1-2-3/10/4-6/7-11-5…Bold Article (1) gets the saddle from the highly-successful young trainer Joseph Saffie, Jr. Barn has won with .22% of 496 starters this year and this one fit that category here back in September when she broke the maiden. Ran credible against tougher last time out. Rider is red hot, going 9-3-1 in the last 30 mounts. Look for this one to press the pace from the get go and she should go from the get. Some Would Say (2) ran a better-than-looks 4th last time out. Set the fractions early before tiring late against better. Cuts back in distance for this one and the trainer has won with .21% this year. Chance at some nice odds. “Longshot Special of the Day — #2.” The final leg of this tripod is “Easy as 1-2-3.” Overdressed (3) won the last time out for a $20,000 tag. Did so at KEE when dropping the Lasix, due to the KY rules. Has been close in every start and gets a top, top, top rider up. Chance. I bet the 1-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 10 in two smaller units.
9th: 3-5/8-(11)-2-4/6-7-10/(13)-9…Spirit Animal (3) is my second “Key Play of the Day.” This 4YO son of Lemon Drop Kid is coming off a win at Belmont Park on Sept. 19. It was his 3rd win in the last 4 outings. The loss was a head bob at Saratoga and he was coming then. In 7 turf tries, he has 4 wins and a second. Gets the meet’s top rider. Let’s roll. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the 3-5 solidly in one exacta. I will key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
10th: 4-11/6-9-10-5/8-2-7-1…Divinium (4) is a 2YO son of Into Mischief and trained by Steve Asmussen. Ran well in the debut before tiring late. Cut back in distance should help and the extra conditioning should, too. Cousin Larry won that day, and I touted him big. Have to bet this one on the next out — off the key race. Rockstar Ro (11) came from off of it in the last two. Breaks from the far outside, and that can’t help here. May be a bit vunerable at at low odds price. Chance, but under for me. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene