|Day Results||10 / 3-5-8|
|2020 Overall 1200||1200 / 426-396-492|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.50%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.50%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –781-1,200||65.08%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 62-84||73.81%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 30-84||35.71%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 14-3-5-3||21.43% Win / 78.57% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 165-54-39-24||32.73% Win / 70.91% ITM|
(Miss Jacqueline returns to the races today. It’s been almost a year since she broke her maiden in the debut race. Long. Hard. Frustrating and disappointing, at times. Now, we are back. Looking forward.)
An “OK” day at the “OK Coral,” that I like to call Churchill Downs. My home track, these and every days.
We managed to coax home 3 winners out of the 10 races conducted, but we cased exactas in 6 races — pushing home winners that returned $7.80, $5.20, $15.00, $16.70, $11.90 and $46.40 for each $1 played.
We are headed to the track today. I have a horse running in the 4th. Can’t wait to see the Twin Spires in person. Again. Miss the ole’ gals.
Here’s a look at today’s picks. Let’s get lucky.
1st: 3-5-6/4-1/2…Bode’s Light (3) made a nice run in the career debut, to be 3rd. Gets a veteran rider who is doing some good work this summer. Trainer is having a very solid year, winning at an .18% clip in 164 races. Barn wins with .22% in the 2nd start and with .23% when going from the MSW ranks to the MCL level. Threat. Sir Acealot (5) comes from the red-hot barn of Brad Cox, who is winning at a .46% clip here in September. Nice. Wins with .20% of those debuting in the MCL ranks. Rider has teamed up to go 5-3-1 in the last 14 rides for this barn, too. Have to use, for me. Tenth of Gold (6) is a first timer for the barn of Steve Asmussen, who holes out at a .16% rate when starting off in the MCL ranks. Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and the sire wins with .20% with first time starters. Like the last work, too. I bet the 3-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the top 3 over/under the 4-1 in two smaller units.
2nd: 6-3-4/2-5…Octava (6) will be making the 2020 debut and the first career start for trainer Jack Sisterson. Gets blinkers for the first time, and I love the work pattern heading into this start. My first Upset Special of the Day. Could be a real threat in this spot. Villanelle (3) may be the horse to beat. Ran 4th in the debut at Ellis on Aug. 14. Goes for the barn of Brad Cox (OMG), who wins with .24% when routing for the first time. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the daughter of Curlin could jump off the charts today. Must use, for me. Glamour Girl (4) has not managed a win yet in 9 career starts. But does have 2 seconds and 4 thirds in that mix. I use underneath, right? I bet the 6-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I key the 6-3 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed.
3rd: 3-5-4/1A-1/2…Fair Maiden (3) has not run since last November at Santa Anita. Ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf that day. Could not handle Sharing, the Champ, but then again nobody has been able to do that. Is a Stakes winner and nearly a G1 Stakes winner, too, before the BC debacle. Has been training lights out for the return. If ready? Let’s go. Perfect Happiness (5) nearly won the last time out and has been a real force in the last three races. Returns as a beaten favorite here and the barn wins with .32% of those kind. Has a 2nd in only previous try here. Chance. Casual (4) has not faired well in either of the last two, but those were both in the Stakes category. Drops back and I just love the breeding on this home-bred daughter of Curlin. Should be a force here. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 3-4 over/under the numbers listed. I bet the 4 to win/place one more time, too.
4th: 4/3-7/8-6/2-5-1…I own Miss Jacqueline (4) with two great friends of mine. She won in her debut race here last October. Off since, but I love this gal. Ready to get back to racing and we are hoping. She’s mine. So, let’s go racing. I bet the 4 across the board and then key the 4 over/under the “all button.” All day.
5th: 5-1-3/4-2/8-6…Lookin for Loki (5) has run two solid races so far and now drops into the MCL ranks for the first time. Barn wins with .14% of those kind. Has some speed and comes from a Stakes-placed mare. Son of Into Mischief sold for only $15,000, though. Hmmmm. Portal One (1) is a 2YO making the career debut and draws the rail. Wow. That’s a tough assignment. But training well for one of the best trainers in the game today. Better person than that. I use. Tkotchke (3) ran very well on debut at Ellis Park. Tired at the end. That trip should tighten the belt a bit and the barn goes to the go-to rider for this operation. Huge threat. I bet — take note — the 3-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I key the top 3 over/under the 4-2 in two smaller units. I hit the 3 with another fist, or two.
6th: (11)-(12)-7-6/5-10-3-9/2-8-1…This is a turf event scheduled to go 11/16 miles. I go to the far outside and land on the two AE horses, if they draw into the race. To me, they are the ones that have the best shot at winning and hitting the board. Bar none. But if they do not get in here, I will go to Chipshire (7) — who is owned by some good friends and a cheering section from Calloway County. Go Phil Hazle. Riding along with you, my friends. Barn wins with .18% on the 2nd start and with .22% with the second route start. Big shot here. Saranya (6) is a first time starter from the Cox barn. I think the breeding is spot on here — out of a Stakes winning dam who has 2 turf winners from 3 starters and a SW, too. Why not? I bet the 7-6 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I key the 7-6 over/under the 5-10-3-9 in two smaller units. Unless…If the 11-12 draw in? I use.
7th: 4-5-1/3-2/6-7…Hop Kat (4) seems to be running himself back into good racing shape and the barn wins with .31% when going from a sprint, to a route and then back to a sprint distance. Nice numbers. Wins with .32% when going from a route to a sprint. Even better. And, wins with .20% when going from turf back to dirt. Adds up for me and I like the rider choice here. Victory Boulevard (5) faced some stiff comp up at Saratoga. Barn wins with .19% in the 3rd try off the layup, too. Geroux riding for Maker? Nice. Samurai Cause (1) could add some spice to this odds rack. Has 2 seconds in 2 previous tries here and barn wins with .20% in the third start off a layup. Looks well spotted. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the top 3 over/under the 3-2 in two smaller units.
8th: 4-7/6-1-2/3-8-5…Patty H (4) is another from the Cox barn. In two previous runs this summer, has a second and third. Back. Enough written. First Key Play of the Day for me. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then key the 4 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.
9th: 2-4-7/1-3/5-8-6…Golden Curl (2) nearly pulled off the win last time out when getting the grass for the first time. Led all the way to the shadow of the line. Will likely try the front again here, but gets a new rider for the assignment. Work on Sept. 8 was spot on. Looks good right now, and she is a daughter of Curlin. They only get better with some age. Siamese (4) could add some real value here, and is my second Upset Special of the Day. Gets Lasix for the first time and will make the NA debut for a barn that wins with .21% of those kind. Love the rider choice. Watch out. Tipsy Gal (7) will make the grass debut for a winning dam who has already had a turf winner. Interesting. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then box the 2-4-7 in one exacta. I will key the 2-4 over/under the 1-3. I will key the 4 over/under the “all button.”
10th: 6-5-9/8-3-2-4/7-1…On Your Mark (6) is my choice in the finale. This 3YO son of Mark Valeski drops back down in class to a level he nearly won at just two starts ago at KEE. Work here on Sept. 8 was spot on and the rider knows his one well. Look for this one to be a tough out here. It’s a Wrap (5) was claimed last time out and now will try a bit tougher group. Has 3 thirds in the first 5 starts and the barn wins with .22% when making the debut after the purchase. Love the work on Sept. 15. Looks ready. Rye Humor (9) has been working very well for this effort and could upset the apple cart here. Barn hits with .17% when dropping to the claiming ranks for the first time. Here you go — last Upset special of the Day. I bet the 6-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 6-9 over/under the 5-8-3-2-4 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene