|Day Results||10 / 4-1-1|
|2020 Overall 1248||1248 / 445-413-511|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.66%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.57%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –811-1,248||64.98%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 92-132||69.70%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 49-132||37.12%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 19-5-5-3||26.32% Win / 68.42% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 169-56-39-24||33.14% Win / 70.41% ITM|
Managed 4 winners out of the 10 race card on Friday, and we picked up a few exactas along the way that returned the likes of $9.00, $15.10, $75.60, $44.00, $28.30 and $10.00 for each $1 played.
The “whoppers” in the exacta payoffs helped pave the way to a profitable return.
So, we are now ready for a little football and a lot of racing.
Hope you enjoy. Here’s a look at the card in Louisville:
1st: 5-6-1/3-2-4…Bold Article (5) gets the nod here. Trainer had an impressive winner here on Friday and is winning at a .23% clip with 422 runners this year. Wow. This one gets back to the dirt, where she looks like she belongs. Barn hits with .22% going from route to a sprint. Gets a top jockey in the irons. Watch out here. Blue Paynt (6) drops another rung in the class order and gets back to the dirt, too. Returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .18% this meet. One to beat, IMO. Springfield Dusty (1) flashed some speed in the first run. Looks like owner purchased from his former connections at KY Downs. Could profile good with this drop in class. Jockey has had a very good year here in KY. Chance. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 5-6 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
2nd: 2/6-7-1/5-3…The first Key Play of the Day comes right here with French Empire (2). This 5YO daughter of Street Sense is making the first start since early August, but the barn gets them ready off the bench and wins with .20% of those going from the turf to the dirt. If she can transfer her talents to the main track? Look out. Gets a top rider in the saddle. Just looks like a roller to me. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.
3rd: 2/3-4-5/6-1…The second straight Key Play of the Day and it comes with another #2. I love Icatiro (2), and the 7YO gelding could be a very solid price, too. This one has not raced since May, but the works line up OK and he returns in the claiming ranks. Barn wins with .26% in the purchasing department and the rider has gone 2-2-1 in the last 8 rides for his #1 employer. In 10 starters here? Has only 1 win. Must figure out a way to overcome that bias. But in 15 starts at the distance? Has gone 3-2-5. Like this one. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas.
4th: 3-6/5-4/1…Magic Michael (3) gets the nod here for me. This 3YO gelding comes from a sire whom I have never heard of or about. Ever. And, this one will be making the fist start since July when he was domiciled in Texas. But? There’s always a but…This one does have a second over this track back last November and gets a top rider for this performance. Will drop considerably in the class department and gets the blinkers for the first time. Interesting. Fire Marshall Bill (6) ran second at this level last time out. Soundly beaten, but this is a good spot. Could carry the speed with the stretch out in distance. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then key the 3 with the “all button” on top and bottom.
5th: 1-10/3-7/5-2-11/6-4-(13)-9…Atmos (1) finds the rail in this spot and that post position is winning at a whopping .22% clip this meet. The barn wins with .28% when dropping this much, and this 5YO gelded son of Candy Ride ran 3rd last time out against much better. Has a win in 5 tries here. My choice. Cantrell Hill (10) has been much better since the claim and wheels right back after winning here on Sept. 2. Barn hits with .15% of those trying to repeat in the claiming ranks, but a better .20% when it won the last race. In 3 previous runs here? Has a win and 2 thirds. I bet the 1-10 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exacta. I key the 1-10 over/under the 3-7-5-2-11-6 in two smaller units.
6th: 1-7-6/4-3-5/2…I go right back to the rail here with Moliere (1). This 3YO son of Curlin is a homebred for Stonestreet Stables and nearly won on debut at Ellis Park on Aug. 23. Flattened a bit at the end of that 1-mile effort and now cuts back to 7 furlongs. Should be fit, but needs to break clean from this post and get a nice spot coming out of the testy chute. Watch early on. Key to race. Lake Nimrod (7) nearly won at Ellis last time out and finds a preferred starting spot in this gate. Will likely stalk the early leaders and may be a bit sharper with the addition of blinkers. Stretches out a bit. Needs to hold on late. Fastly (6) could be an interesting one here. This one ran a solid race here on Sept. 5. Faced some good ones before that. Jockey is a bit suspect for me. I bet the 7 — take note — on top. I box the top 3 in one exacta and then box the 1-7 in another. I will key the 1-7 over (only) the 6-4-3-5-2 in a smaller unit.
7th: 7-4-6/8-9/2-3/1-5…What a race this shapes up to be in the second division of the MSW split race. Wow. The talent is laden in here. I will give the edge to Emperador (7), who will be making the career debut for trainer Chad Brown. This son of Curlin cost the connections a whopping $1 million at the KEE November Sale in 2017 — as a weanling. Love the work on Sept. 12 here. But this will not be an easy spot. Turnagain Tide (4) is a son of Into Mischief and cost $750,000 at the 2018 KEE September Yearling Sale. Has been working spot on for a barn that wins with .18% on debut. Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters. Looks solid. The Sound (6) is the roommate of the #4. Has been working side by side, too. Could factor into this one. I bet the 7-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the 7-4 over/under the 6-8-9-2-3 in two smaller units.
8th: 1-6-3/2-7/1A-8/4-5-9…Gold Standard (1) returns from an extended vacation for this spot. Is the class of this field, IMO, if she is cranked and ready to spin. Like the fact she breaks from the #3 post and has the speed to motor on. Love the distance for the first back since February. Cuts back to the flat mile. Is a perfect 2-for-2 there. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I will key the 1 over/under the 6-3-2-7-8 in two smaller units.
9th: 1/13-5/4-2/6-8-7-9/3…G3 Ack Ack Stakes…Another Key Play of the Day for me and another #1 that I spot on top. Warrior’s Charge (1) nearly won the G3 Phllip H. Iselin Stakes last out and the winner of that one came right back to win again the next out. Did it impressively, too. Barn wins with .21% in the Graded Stakes ranks and this one gets his regular rider back in the irons, too. Mile distance is interesting and this one is 0-for-2 at that length. Has a third in only previous run here. But the run against By My Standards back in May? Run that race again and watch them all watch from behind. I bet the 1 to win/place and then key the 1 over/under the 13-5-4-2-6-8 in the exactas.
10th: 4-8-9/5-10/7…Longpants Required (4) gets a slight nod in this wide-open affair. Has two seconds in a row and has a 0-2-2 record in the first 8 starts. Don’t know if she wants to finish the job when she sees the wire approaching, but she’s the best in here and has the best rider in the town. Chance. Again. Sail On Ellen (8) goes for a top trainer, who is highly underrated. Give this lady a good horse, and she gets good results. This one has 4 thirds in the first 5 starts. So? Probably bet her underneath, right? I do. Leah Chase (9) could be a shocker in this group. Dam of this one has 2 turf winners from 3 starters and this one should improve off the last start. Barn hits with .18% of those making the 2nd start off the layup. Rider is best on the turf, too. Look out at this 8-1 ML odds. My first Upset Special of the Day. I bet the 4-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 5-10 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene