|Day Results||10 / 3-5-5|
|2020 Overall 1616||1616 / 572-553-699|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.40%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.62%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,047-1,616||64.79%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 94-147||63.95%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 51-147||34.69%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 22-11-1-3||50.00% Win / 68.18% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 219-80-45-30||36.53% Win / 70.78% ITM|
We had a modest day in the win category. Only 3 winners out of the 10 races posted for action.
There’s always a “but,” right?
We had a field day in the “exacta” department. Cashed for $8.70, $4.10, $20.80, $47.70, $41.50, $24.00, $20.60 and $25.70 for each $1 played.
Here’s hoping we can parlay some of that extra cash into some Christmas money for the kids and grand children.
Here’s our picks for today:
1st: 2-5-4/7/1…Lake Nimrod (2) is a tout of mine that I lost on last time out by a stinking nostril hair and at the wire. Winner that day came right back to take the next outing, too. In two of the last three outings, this one has been 2nd. Drops to a career low level for a powerful trainer-jockey team that have teamed up to go 4-3-1 in the last 14 outs. My pick. On Your Mark (5) drops down from the $40,000 level to the $20,000 tag today and the barn wins with .26% when getting this much of a class relief in one swoop. Had a couple of real nice efforts back in the summer. Talent thee. Can toss each of the last two. Broke through the gate just two races Ok, and that’s an awful pre-race condition. One of the worst. Bumped around rather significantly in the last and then rushed. Bad race pattern, too. Jack Luvs Nova (4) was claimed last time out for $15,000 and bumps up a rung for today’s affair. Has hit the board in three of four lifetime and was 3rd last time out, too. Has been wide in each of the last two and gets a red hot rider for this trip today. Barn’s go-to rider has gone 9-3-2 in the last 27 for the trainer. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
2nd: 7-2-6/4/1…First Empress (7) will make her first career start in the Commonwealth today after traveling in from the sunny confines of Santa Anita. Won the last one out there at about this same level by nearly 7. Has speed. Can use it early and often. Fits with this less-than-stellar crowd here. And, the barn wins with .11% when shipping to a new locale and with .14% on the repeat effort. Gets one of the best and hottest riders around for the mount job. Look out. Subiaco (2) has some back class and drops to a career low price tag for this one. Has 2 thirds here previously, but the last three outings are a little sketchy. Maybe the drop will be the right hop for this one. Better Biz (6) won the last time out here on Nov. 8. Wheels right back while she is hot, kind of a theory for a barn that wins with only .07% when bumping up this far in class. Does have a win and a second in only two races here. Chance with Chantel up. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will also key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
3rd: 1/7-4-6/5-3-2…The first Key Play of the Day will come here with Financial One (1). This 3YO daughter of Malibu Moon ran a very nice 2nd here on debut in September. Went to Keeneland and experienced a terrible and tough trip while stretching out to the 11/16-mile distance. Roughed up from the get-go in that one. Now, cuts back to a flat mile and switches to a rider than is on his game right now. Huge rider switch. Huge. Barn wins with .29% of those returning as a beaten favorite and with .36% of those routing for the 2nd time. All in here. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed. More on top. Obviously.
4th: 1/6/4-5/3…If there ever was a time to claim a first-time starter for the $150,000 tag, it was on Oct. 24 at KEE when the 2YO Distorted Humor colt Joe Frazier made the debut. Look at the prices people pay for yearlings. This 2YO dusted off a field of 9 others by 3 easy lengths and did it in absolute style. May just go on to be a Graded Stakes winner with this pedigree, being out of a Stakes-winning dam who has produced 5 winners from the first 5 starters. Must move up today to face winners, and some potentially good ones, at that. But I am a believer in this one. My second Key Play of the Day. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-6 solidly in the exacta. I will key the 1 over/under the numbers listed in two smaller versions.
5th: 3-11-6/7-4-9…Dart time. Throw blindly at the board. See what number you hit. Go with that one. Well, sort of. I will saddle up with Naveen (3). This one comes from the barn of Brendan Walsh, who is having a solid year and wins with a whopping .44% when dropping this far at once. Ran for $40,000 tag on debut. Ran 6th of 8, with some “green” issues. Now, heads to the gate today for the $15,000 price category. Works of late very good. Rider is holding his own against some tough competition here. Best of this group, to me. Dirty Deeds (11) ran well for awhile when dropped in for this tag last time out. Tired late after pushing the pace early. Barn wins with .10% of the layup and with .18% in the 2YO brand. Has some speed. Always dangerous. Star Mission (6) improved some when dropped to this level last time out. Was way wide in that one. Could improve again today with a cleaner and shorter trip. Chance. I bet the 3-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. Enough for me in this spot.
6th: 6-5/4-2/1-7-3…Rob the Rich (6) drops into the high-end claiming ranks off a better-than-looks 4th last time out. Ran into an intense speed duel in that one and survived enough to hold on for a check at the end. A little better pace presence in here, and this one could be a formidable foe at a distance where he has gone 0-2-1 in 5 starts. The Feature (5) has run two solid efforts at this level after racing over the hills and dales of KY Downs. If he can duplicate those efforts today, and come from the same stalking position? A chance. Spin Rate (7) is the intriguing one. Won on debut at the Fair Grounds in February. Off until October and ran nowhere in the return. Now, he falls into the claiming ranks for the first time. Intriguing, but a dangerous bet-type. If he is anywhere close to the former self. Good bye. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box the 6-5-7 in one exacta. I will key the 6-7 over/under the 5-4-2-1-3 in two smaller units.
7th: 5-11-9/1/4/10-3/2-6-7-12…What a nice MSW event for the 2YOs here. I will go solid and long on Sound Money (5). This is the 2YO son of Flatter who got left in the gate at KEE on Oct. 11 and was declared a non-starter due to a malfunction of the starting gate. Still, after this one finally was set free, he came from last by many to only lose by about 5 at the wire. If that mental trauma doesn’t set this one back, he should be a game rascal today for trainer Chad Brown. Gets a hot rider. Gets a chance to run. Deadly combo. Ghostlier (11) will be making the career debut for trainer Mark Casse, and the son of Ghostzapper has been training lights out for this one. Don’t mind the outside gate here. Gets a nice, solid rider who can hang with the big boys here. Look for this one to flash some serious speed. Chance at a price? Supremacy (9) is a first timer for the barn of Brad Cox and it’s possible you could find double digit odds here, too. What? On a Cox horse? Possible. If so, this 2YO son of Constitution will be my Longshot Special of the Day. Has been working good. Comes from a top young sire. Dam has 2 winners from 5 starters. Rider is red hot and has won .27% of the last 77 rides for this barn. Pop on. I bet the 5-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two smaller units.
8th: 1/4-6/2-3-5…My next Key Play of the Day comes here with the uno — Admiral Lynch (1). This 4Yo son of Super Saver has a win and a second in two starts at this sprint specialty distance of 5 furlongs and has a second in only previous run here. Ran up against some real good ones of late, and has held own. Returns as a beaten favorite and gets a red hot rider who has won with .29% of the last 51 marks for this barn. Red hot duo that has gone 5-3-1 in the last 11 mounts together. Tie on here and ride it out. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas. More with the 4-6.
9th: 7-1/3-4-9/6-2…Let’s finish the day with a rousing victory, and we will saddle up with trainer Brad Cox and his Milana (7). This 2YO daughter of Firing Line ran 7th in the career debut here in October. Didn’t show much at all. But she drops from the MSW ranks to the MCL $40,000 level today and gets the blinkers for the first time. Here’s hoping that the combo of those two things adds some spark to the dance. Barn wins with .24% of those getting the shades for the first time and with .28% dropping into the MCL ranks for the first time. Has worked good and, of course, the connections are red hot. I go here. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-1 in the exacta. I key the 7-1 over/under the rest of then numbers in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene