|Day Results||10 / 4-5-8|
|2020 Overall 1210||1210 / 430-401-500|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.54%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.67%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –786-1,210||64.96%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 67-94||71.28%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 34-94||36.17%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 15-3-5-3||20.00% Win / 66.67% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 166-54-39-24||32.53% Win / 70.48% ITM|
It was a pretty tough day at the big oval on Saturday. Oh, we had 4 winners on the 10-race card. We had 6 exactas, as well. Not bad. Certainly not a “tough” day.
But in the race that mattered most to us — #4 — we got left at the starting gate and we got left behind at the betting gate, too.
Just a tough pill.
You spend a year getting all the way back to the races, struggling to overcome issue after issue, and then you lose all chance with the spring of the gate latch. Stomach meet throat. Pit meet the pits.
That’s why “they” (whoever “they” truly are) say:
“You don’t play this game in short pants.”
I really don’t know what that means, but it makes sense.
We turn the page, and we move on. So, we returned home and starting turning the pages on today’s “PPs.” Here’s what we have found for Sunday — Funday:
1st: 4-6-2/3-1…Beauty Day (4) moves up a couple of notches in the class department today, but that does not matter a bit to me. The trainer is one of the best in the business and in the first two starts this meet, he has a second and a third. Barn wins with .25% of those that are making the third start off a layup. Has a win over this track. Skyvalue (6) moves up in class, as well. Has run two thirds in a row and in 5 career starts, so far, she has a win and three 3rds. So, may be best to bet this one to “show,” right? Love the new rider for this one. Barn wins with .23% in the claiming ranks, too. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the top 3 over (only) the 3-1 in a shorter unit.
2nd: 2-3-5/4-6…Kimora (2) is a 2YO daughter of Dialed In and from the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning at a .32% clip here this meet. Gets the blinkers for the first time and the trainer has won with .25% of them — and there has been 130 of “them” this year. Moves into the claiming ranks for the first time, too, and the barn wins with .28% of those dropping from the MSW ranks to the MCL level. Interesting choice of riders here. Don’t know if I have ever seen this duo hook up. But the works are good. Returns as a beaten favorite. Adds up for me. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over (only) the 4-6 in a shorter unit.
3rd: 5-6/1-2-4…Crazy Sexy Funny (5) didn’t fare well over the AW surface at Arlington Park last time out, but before that debacle this 4YO Munnings filly had hit the board in 9 races in a row. Had 6 wins mixed in that group. In 3 career starts here? Has a win and a third. Looks the best. C Islandsurprise (6) has raced here 19 times before. Has a record of 5-3-5. Should be a tough out with the speed she usually brings to the table and to the track. Come catch me? I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 5-6 over (only) the 1-2-4 in a smaller unit.
4th: 6-3-2/4-1…Decade (6) is even-money in the ML, and there is a good reason. Nearly won on debut at Ellis Park on Aug. 15, losing by a nostril hair. Returns today for a barn that wins with .21% in the second career move and gets the barn’s go-to rider in the saddle today. This one cost $170,000 at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale. Has the speed class in this race, too. Color of Dawn (3) comes from the barn of Brad Cox, and will be making the career debut. The works are just OK, but the barn wins with .18% of those that debut in the MSW ranks. Rider has won with .25% of the last 28 rides for this barn, too. Chance. Sweet Ginger (2) has been working lights out and comes from a dam that has produced 2 winners from the first 4 starters. Rider has made a name in KY this year. I bet the 6 to win/place and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6 over/under the “all button” in two smaller units.
5th: 1-2-6/4-3…Adhhar (1) ran a solid 3rd at this level here on Sept. 3. In 3 starts here, has a second and a third on the resume. Got some serious traffic issues last time out, and now gets a new rider up. Cuts back to a sprint today and the barn wins with .25% when going from a route to a shorter distance. Look out. Strike (2) comes from the barn of Tommy Drury — one of the best young trainers in the game today. Barn wins with .28% when making the 2nd start off the layup. Gets the blinkers for the first time today, and the trainer wins with .21% of those. I have to use here. Prioritizer (6) has been working well and won the last time out by a whopping 4 lengths. Has talent and gets a return visit from the rider, who had choices here. Threat. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I also key the 1-6 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
6th: 5-2-6/(11)-10-(13)-(12)/9-8-1/4-3…No Obligation (5) gets the nod here. The 2YO son of Street Boss ran with a purpose at the end of the debut. Lost all chance at the start, but figured it out late and made up nearly 6 lengths in the final two calls. Gets the blinkers today and the barn wins with .20% of those and they made sharpen this one up a bit earlier on. My pick. Johny’s Fireball (2) tired last time out when the race was moved off the grass. Should improve with a return to the sod. Dam of this one was a SW, and has produced a turf winner already, too. Has speed will travel. S Man (6) has a few sharp works and will make the career debut here. Barn wins with .20% when debuting on the sod. Gets the barn’s top rider up. Jockey has won with .27% of the last 37 rides for this trainer. I bet the 5-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 5-2 over/under the 6-11-10-13-12-9 in two smaller units.
7th: 5-3/8-7/1-6/9-4-2…Golden Notion (5) will be making the first start for the new barn and returns as a beaten favorite, too. Don’t know much about this trainer, but he has only .09% winners out of 79 starters this year. In 3 starts here, though, has a win and a third and will debut as a gelding, too. Golden Tiger (3) comes from the barn of HOFer Steve Asmussen, and the barn wins with .26% with beaten favorites. In two previous runs here, has a win and a second. Big shot. I bet the 5-3 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 5-3 over/under the 8-7-1-6-9 in two smaller units.
8th: 8-4/3-6/7-1-5…Urbanite (8) drops from the allowance ranks into the claiming level for the first time in three starts. Last time here, he was 3rd at KEE in July. In 5 starts at this distance, has a 1-1-2 record. Barn wins with .25% of 40 starts this year and with .20% with beaten favorites. Gets a nice rider switch here, too. Pickford (4) has a win and a second in three previous tries here and has a 1-3-3 mark in 8 starts at this distance. My guess? Second today. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the 8-4 in the exacta. I will key the 8-4 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
9th: 5-8-6/9-2-4-1/3-7-10…Oak Hill (5) had all kinds of issues in the last start at Saratoga. Eventually, had to be pulled up and finished a total of 41 lengths behind the winner at the wire. Wow. But the two races before were spot on. Broke the maiden at Saratoga in the race before. Has returned to work well and gets a rider who has won with .33% of the last 6 rides for this barn. Trainer won with 3 of the first 10 starts here this meet. Falkirk (8) could provide some spark to this exotic mix. The 3YO gelded son of Cairo Prince comes in off an easy and impressive MSW win. Got the blinkers for the first time in that start. Now will face winners for the first time, and the barn wins with .18% of those. Threat. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 5-8 over/under the 6-9-2-4-1-3 in two smaller units.
10th: 6-9-4/3-5-2/1…Treaty of Paris (6) ran 4th in the debut and now slides from the MSW ranks into the MCL level here. The barn wins with .19% of those kind over the last 248 to do so. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up and the dam knows how to produce winners. Could pop at a number here. Charmed One (9) drops in class, too, and gets a top rider to take the assignment. May be something to encourage this rider choice. My first Upset Special of the Day. The horse to beat just may be Orencia (4). This daughter of Blame has run two 5ths in a row to start the career. Winner of the last race came right back to win the next out, and this one will get the blinkers for the first time today. Barn wins with .16% of those dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time. Threat. I bet the 6-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3-5 in two smaller units. I also key the 6 over/under the “all button” here.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene