Day Results 10 / 3-4-6
2020 Overall 1258 1258 / 448-417-517
Win % of Top Pick 35.61%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 36.62%
2020 Top Pick in the Money –817-1,258 64.95%
Top Selection ITM / CD 98-142 69.01%
Top Selections Win / CD 52-142 36.62%
“Key Horses” @ CD 22-6-6-3 27.27% Win / 68.18% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2020 172-57-40-24 33.14% Win / 70.35% ITM

Another tough day cashing the “win” ticket. We managed 3 of those out of the 10 races carded at the big yard in Louisville.

But…

There’s always a “but,” right?

We did cash exactas for $5.40, $10.10, $10.20, $8.70, $46.90 and $42.20 out of the 10 races for each $1 played. Thank goodness. The two robust payouts put us in the green line.

Here’s a look at the final day of the Churchill Downs’ September race meeting:

1st: 3-2/1-5/4…Free Cause (3) drops into the MCL ranks for the first time and the barn wins with .14% of those kind. Hasn’t shown a lot in the first two, but should appreciate this class drop and the work here on Sept. 13 was better than previous. Rider has won with .10% of the last 39 mounts for this barn. Chance at a square price. Funnybet (2) is a roommate to the top choice. Both come from the barn of Dale Romans, who is having a solid if unspectacular meet. This one ran 3rd in the last outing at Ellis Park. That was against these types. Work on Sept. 8 was good enough. Love the rider choice. This man won a ton of races for this trainer in the past. Love to see the connect up again. I bet the 3-2 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 3-2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.

2nd: 2/5-1-6/4-3…The first Key Play of the Day and there are several of those as we close out the September meet today. Summer Palace (2) goes for a barn still hunting that elusive first win of the meet. Zero for the first 18 races. Barn is better than that, as evidenced by the .14% win rate in 268 races this year. This one will be making the 2nd start off the layup and the barn wins with .15% of those kind. Gets the meet’s top rider for this one, and that can’t hurt. Looks like this one should be ready for a big effort here. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.

3rd: 4/1-2/3-5/6…The second Key Play of the Day comes here with Major Fed (4). This guy has been banging heads with the big boys all spring and summer. Has run some good ones and looked better going into some others. But the son of Ghostzapper has been hit and banged around more than a college football player on Saturday. Tough spots. Tough competition. Tougher trips. He stands out in this field. Should be able to handle. Could be a nice brain exercise, too, and help with the colt’s confidence building. Like the decision to go here. Look out. Let’s roll. No odds to be hand here, but I can key in the horizontal plays (Pick 3, 4, 5). If anything close to even money? Land a win bet. I will key over the 1-2-3-5 in the exacta. 

4th: 7-8-1/5-2/3-6/4…Floriform (7) is a strange name for a horse, but this 2YO son of Into Mischief is my Upset Special of the Day — if it stays anywhere close to the 8-1 ML odds posted on Brisnet.com. The colt will be making the career debut for trainer Bill Mott, who wins with .14% in the MSW ranks and with .10% of those making the debut in this category. But the dam of this one has 4 winners from 6 starters; and the sire wins with .16% with first timers. Also, the last work here on Sept. 21 was spot on. Love this rider up. My pick. Five Dreams (8) is another one making the debut. This one has been working well down at Ellis Park for a top barn operation, which is winning at a .21% clip this meet. Rider is hot on hot, too. Ultimate (1) is another from the barn of Steve Asmussen, and this one get’s the barn’s go-to rider. First timer comes from a top sire, and one of my favorites. Throws .16% winners on debut, as well. Hate the rail for a first timer, though. Concern. I bet the 7-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 7-8 over/under the 1-5-2-3-6-4 in two smaller units.

5th: 4/7-2/3-6/1-5…My third Key Play of the Day comes here and with another #4 saddle cloth. I go with Lighthawk (4), who is even-money in the ML. This 5YO gelded son of Tapit is coming off a nice win at Lone Star Park in July. Ships in for a barn that is winning at a .21% clip here this meet and with .23% out of 940 starters this year. Barn’s go-to rider takes the reins and this one looks placed for a prime time performance. I bet the 4 to win/place and then key the 4 over/under the numbers listed above in the exacta.

6th: 4/2-6/1-7/5-8…My fourth Key Play of the Day and out of that number, three of them are with the # 4 horse. This time I go with Lady Traveler (4), who is coming off a near-miss 3rd in the debut race here on Sept. 4. Lost by a neck in that one and was in front just past the wire. Trainer wins with .14% of those making the 2nd career start. Sharp, sharp, sharp work since the race here on Sept. 19. This 2YO daughter of Quality Road — who cost $350,000 to purchase at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale — looks primed and ready. I bet the 4 to win/place and then key the 4 over/under the numbers listed in the exactas.

7th: 6-7/2-1/5-3/8…Ginny B (6) is another from the barn of Steve Asmussen and another one that could have a prime shot at making the winner’s circle photo session today. The 4YO daughter of More Than Ready nearly won last time at for the $30,000 tag. Now, she gets the drop to the $20,000 level and goes from the turf to the dirt. Barn wins with .21% of those making this surface switch. Should be better in the 2nd start off the layup, and the work at Ellis Park on Sept. 18 was solid. Silly Notion (7) looks to have the best shot at upsetting the top pick. This 3YO daughter of Itsmyluckyday picks up the meet’s top rider for just the 2nd time in the career. Last time they hooked up? Nearly won at Gulfstream Park back in April. Gets the blinkers for the first time today and the barn wins with .20% of those. Big shot. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box those 2 sternly in the exacta. I will key the 6-7 over/under the 2-1-5-3 in two smaller units.

8th: 2-11/9-8/7-6-1-5/10…Foliage (2) will be making the second career start and the first effort over the sod today. The 2YO of Speightstown could give the sire a heckuva day. This one set all the fractions before giving up the lead just before the wire in the lone start, which came at Saratoga in August. The dam of this one has 3 turf winners from 6 starters and has 2 Stakes winners. This one looks ready to me. Spicy Marg (11) comes from the barn of Wesley Ward, who specializes with these 2YO types and with the turf sprinter types, too. This one ran huge on the front end last time out. Tired in the last, but the “Show” horse came right back to win the next time out. Could be tough to catch if she can break well and gas it out of there. Daughter of Into Mischief. What’s not to like her? I bet the 2-11 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exacta. I will key the 2-11 over (only) the 9-8-7-6-1-5 in a smaller unit.

9th: 5-6/7-2/4-1/3…Another really nice race to close up the abbreviated meet. I will give the edge to two horses that were pointed towards the Triple Crown trail earlier this Spring. Mailman Money (5) is owned and trained by the same connections that won the G3 Ack Ack on Saturday. This is another one of their Goldencents’ progeny and the cutback to 6 furlongs should really help this one, too. In three starts here to date, has two seconds. Won at this distance last December at the Fair Grounds. Look for this one to be a real handful today. Digital (6) will drop back into the allowance company after trying the G2 Pat Day Mile on Sept. 5. Cutback in distance should help, too. In 3 starts at this distance, the son of Into Mischief has a win and two seconds. Has 2 seconds in 3 starts here, too. The two top should out-class this field. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exacta. I will key the 5-6 over/under the 7-2 in two smaller units.

10th: 2-7-5/4/3-8/9-1-6…The last race of the meet comes here and I will go with Clearly Mad (2). This 2YO is a son of Exaggerator, and cost a hefty $140,000 at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale. Looked like a winner here on debut on Sept. 19. Passed at the wire of that one. The conditioning should be better and the rider is red-hot, too. Barn wins with .19% of those routing for the first time. Southern Passage (7) missed by a nose hair last time out here on Sept. 19. Wheels right back in a week’s time for a barn searching for winners. Moves up in class, but the barn wins with .17% of those going from two sprints to a route,. Love the works going into the debut run. If not gassed from the last? Look out. Hendrick (5) gets the blinkers for the first time here and the barn wins with .25% of those. Barn also wins with .26% of those making the 2nd career start, and .24% with those routing for the first time. This one checks all those boxes. Not a surprise. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 4 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene