|Day Results||10 / 3-4-3|
|2020 Overall 672||672 / 237-221-266|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.27%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.91%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –427-672||63.54%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD Spring-Summer: 111-180||61.67%|
|Top Selection Win / CD Spring-Summer: 61-180||33.89%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD Spring-Summer:20-8-5-5||40.00% Win / 90.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 92-30-22-15||32.61% Win / 72.83% ITM|
(Still cruising the low seas of Kentucky Lake this week. But we have time to handicap. Watch and wager, too. Here’s hoping we have a wonderful week together.)
We are back and the first leg of the 2020 Triple Crown kicks off this Saturday with the G1 Belmont Stakes. Hard to write that. Difficult to type that. Hard to even imagine that.
But despite all the woes, we are still standing. We are still riding. We are still racing. Thanks be to all.
We will begin looking at the massive Belmont Park Saturday Card later today. We hope to give a review of the Stakes races beginning tomorrow. Until then, as always, we concentrate on the home track and the home boys and gals at Churchill Downs.
Here’s a closer look at today’s card:
1st: 6-3-10/4-7-11-5…A Lot of Spunk (6) is a first-timer from the barn of Thomas Drury, who is having a superb meet so far with 3 wins and a third in just 10 starts. This one has worked very well for the debut, including a bullet move here on June 7. Rider has won with half of the 6 starts for this barn over the past 60 days. Looks well-spotted here. My Guatemalan Girl (3) has been working well over at the Training Center in Lexington for an under-rated trainer. Barn has won with .13% of the 64 starts this year, and with .10% of 39 making the debut. Dam of this one has 3 winners from 3 starters and nice work on June 11. Chance at a price. Abhaile (10) ships in from Laurel in Maryland for a trainer known to do well with those that make the KY debut. Barn hits with .14% of first time starters. May want to include. I bet the 6-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 6-3 over/under the 10-4-7-11-5 in two smaller units.
2nd: 4-6-8/10-7-(11)/3-2…War Film (4) will be making the second start off the layup, and the HOF trainer hits with .20% of those. Ran well here when dropped to this price tag last time out. Came up a bit short, but that was first start in nearly a year. Should benefit from that exercise and be tough in here. Cashanova (6) will get another shot on the weeds today after running 4th last time out and just behind our top pick. Barn hits with .33% of those making the second career start on the grass. Rider has a 3-2-0 mark in last 11 starts for this barn. Hot. Jumper (8) is another from the barn of Tom Drury. Throw out the last one, and this one figures a lot at a square price. Won here last November at a price, too. Chance. I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-6 over/under the 8-10-7-11-3-2 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7-12-9/11-1-4/10-5-3-6…Joker Lady (7) drops from the $50,000 level all the way to a $10,000 price tag today. Barn hits with .30% when taking this drastic of a class dump. Should wake this one up a bit in here. Illusionista (12) gets back to the barn of Michael Stidham, who is due a win here. The barn has won with nearly .20% this year in 217 starts, but has gone 0-4-3 in 16 mounts here. Due to crack the circle soon. This one may turn that trick if she reverts back to the form of the first two. I toss the last one, completely. Formula (9) drops to a career low level for a barn that has won 2 of 10 this meet. Lot of class dropping for this operation this meet. Look for this one to be tough with a smarter start. I bet the 7-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the 7-12 over/under the 9-11-1-4-10 in two smaller units.
4th: 7-8-5/6-1-3/11-2-9-4-1A…Mad Maddy (7) gets a slight nod in the second of two “Baby Races” here today. This daughter of American Pharoah ran 2nd on debut here on May 21. Nearly won that event. Comes back now for a second try and gets away from the rail — which should help some. Will have to have running shoes on, though. Patty H (8), parked to her outside, will be making the debut for the barn of Brad Cox. Dam of this one has 3 winners from 4 starters and this one has been working lights out over at KEE, too. Look out here. Puye Timing (5) could be a nice longshot in here to spice up the odds rack. This first time starter for trainer Norm Casse comes from a dam who has 2 winners from 3 starters and the work here on June 6 was spot on. Chance. I bet the 7-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta.
5th: 6-10/7-1-5-3/8-9-2-4…China Cat (6) nearly won here last time out despite a terrible start. Returns as a beaten favorite here and the barn hits with .19% of those kind. Look for more today. Delachaise (10) had a worse start last time. This one likes to be a little closer to the front than last and the barn hits with .21% when dropping this much in one swoop. Gets a classy rider back up and should like the return to more distance today, too. Don’t dismiss here. I bet the 6-10 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 6-10 over/under the 7-1-5-3 in two smaller units.
6th: 2-5-7/1-8-(1A)-10/3-9-4…Angelus Warrior (2) is my first Upset Special of the Day. This 3YO son of Jersey Town will be making the second career start for the new barn operator, who hits with .15% of those. Will be making the 2nd start off a layup, too, and the barn scores with .19% of those. Ran a real good one here on May 30 at a huge odds price. If he can duplicate that effort and benefit from the conditioning, he should be tough here with a top rider in the irons. Letmeno (5) is a 3YO son of Twirling Candy and one that I have touted several times before. Should benefit from this class level today and could be a tough out when the wire approaches. Love this jockey on the sod. Acre (7) is a Claiborne bred and born special and is trained by HOFer Bill Mott. Broke the maiden at Saratoga and now finds the grass for the first time. Barn hits with only .07% of those, but does win with .18% of those routing for the first time, too. Interesting. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 2-5 over/under the 7-1-8-10-3 in two smaller versions.
7th: 4-5-3/8-10/2-6-7/9-1…Self Taught (4) drops from the $50,000 level to $20,000 today and should be a tough out in this company. The 3YO gelded son of Shanghai Bobby will get the blinkers for the first time and the barn hits with .14% of those. More importantly, though, this one gets the second start off the layup, and the barn hits with .25% of those and with .30% of those dropping this much. Looks salty here. Johnny Cab (5) won at this level last time out and the barn hits with .30% of those trying to repeat in the claiming ranks. Big shot again. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-5 over/under the 3-8-10-2 in two smaller units.
8th: 1/3-5-2/7-4…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Get the Prize (1). Not much to ask for in the odds category, but this 4YO son of Candy Ride looks the part. In 6 career starts, has a win and 3 seconds and has faced some real good ones. Ran 2nd by just a half-length to Night Opps and was second by a nose to Limonite. Rail is no bargain at this 7-furlongs distance, but with a clean break, he could be on the move. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.
9th: 8-2-7/10-(12)-6-1/3-4-9/5…The finale is another grass event and I will go with Cullum Road (8), who could be a square price and get us out the door with a little more cash in our pocket book. This 5YO son of Quality Road has a 2nd in two starts here and is dropping down after appearing in two Stakes events in a row. Love the work at KEE on June 12 and could improve with the 2nd start off a layup. I like in this spot — especially if he can find the same run as he flashed in the G3 River City here last November. Dontblamerocket (2) is probably the horse to beat. Has not raced since March, but the barn wins with .17% of those away this long. Has 2 thirds in two previous tries here, but this barn is really due a win. Would not be a surprise with this rider and should be coming late. Penalty (7) is another Claiborne-Mott runner. Son of Blame has a second here in the past and is coming off a series of 6 good races, where he has hit the board 5 times. Could be a tough out. I bet the 8-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 8-2 over/under the 7-10-6-1-3 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene