Total Day Results 9 / 3-3-2
2022 Overall — 983 983 / 347-366-456
Win % of Top Pick 35.30%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 39.64%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 636-983 64.70%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 199–303 65.68%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 106-303 34.98%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 62/25-17-5 40.32% Win / 75.81%
2022 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 128-186 68.82%
2022 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 76-186 40.86%
2022 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 35/14-4-4 40.00% Win / 62.86% ITM
2022 Only / “Key Horses” Overall  192/ 78-43-17 40.63% Win / 71.88%
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” @ CD 9/1-1-1 11.11% Win / 33.33%
2022 Only / “Longshots of Day” Overall — 27/5-2-3 18.52% Win / 37.04% ITM
2022 Only / Longshots of the Day” @ HI — 3/2-0-0 66.67% Win / 66.67% ITM

(Stats to be updated after Horseshoe Indianapolis is completed on Wednesday night)

Here’s our looks for “Twilight Thursday” at Churchill Downs on June 23:

1st: 4-2/1-5/3-6…Supertaleofhoudini (4) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the Churchill Downs’ “Twilight Thursday” program. This 4YO daughter of Super Saver was claimed last time out and returns for the same level here. Was not much in the action last time out, and has never hit the board in 5 previous outings over this dirt. But? Ran 2nd at the Fair Grounds against tougher on Jan. 28 and the work on June 5 was very solid. Like the apprentice getting up here, too. Chance at a solid price. Mizbehaving Sis (2) was claimed last time out for the $10,000 tag and now jumps to the $20,000 level here. Ran very well last time out as the beaten favorite. Barn wins with .23% in the 2nd start off the layup and with .20% when moving up the pecking order. Look out here. I bet the 2 — take note — across the board and then box the 2-4 in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 4-1-5-3-6 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 7//5-6/2-3/1-4…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Bear Alley (7). This one is even-money in the ML and is sure to be the PT favorite here, as well. Was claimed last time out for $10,000 and now bounced up to the $16,000 level. Won by 4 easy lengths last time out and has trained very well since then, too. Change of rides is interesting, but the rider has won with .40% of the last 4 for this barn operation, too. I bet the 7 across the board and then key the 7 over/under the 5-6-2-3-1-4. More with the 5-6 than the rest.

3rd: 4-2/1-6-8/3-5-1A/7…Go On Girl (4) is a 2YO daughter of Lord Nelson and will make the career debut for a trainer who has won with .27% of the last 161 starts. Those are wow numbers. This one has been training well in the Chicago-area, too. Gets a good gate runner who can get them away from the starting device. May be over soon. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the 4-2 in the exactas. I will key the 4-2 over/under the 1-6-8-3-5 in two smaller units.

4th: 2/5/1A-3-6-4-7/1…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes here with the deuce — Stayin’ Out Late (2). This 4YO gelded son of Tapit is trained by a HOFer and gets the meet’s top rider up. Won for this barn on Wednesday, as well. This one has been idle since April, but nearly won that event at Oaklawn Park when dropped into the claiming ranks for the first time. Returns here for a little less money, too. I’m in. I bet the 2 across the board and then key the 2 over/under the 5-1A-3-6-4-7 in the exactas. More with the 5 than the rest. 

5th: 3-10-4/6-7/8-9/2/1…Fight Fiercely (3) will make the career debut here for a barn that wins with .10% on debut in the MSW ranks. That is with a sample size of 87 runners. Work on June 17 was spot on. Gets a veteran rider in the irons and should help with the pre-race jitters. Rider has gone 5-6-0 in the last 20. Threat. Two Phil’s (10) could spice up the odds rack here. Working lights out for the same Chicago-based trainer who we liked earlier in the card. Rider can boot and scoot. Dam of this one is a Stakes winner, as well. Lots to like. Jeremy’s Jet (4) is our “Upset Special.” This one is 10-1 in the ML and gets a rider who is 0-for-19 on the meet. But? Ran a huge 2nd here on May 20. If this guy can duplicate that effort here? Look out at a price. I bet the 3-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-7 in two smaller units.

6th: 1-2/6-3/5-7/4…Smarmy (1) has not raced since early May, but returns here with some solid works and for a barn known to gear them up for speed. This one has a lot of gas and should love the rail here. Florida-bred gets the blinkers off, and the barn wins with .44% of those kind. And? Has a 1-1-0 mark in 2 previous tries over this dirt. One to beat, IMO. Lady Traveler (2) is going to make the 2022 debut and has not raced since late November. Did run 3rd in the G2 Black-Eyed Susan last year against Army Mule, a good one. If she is ready? Gear up. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the 1-2 in the exactas. I will key the 1-2 over/under the 6-3-5-7 in two smaller units.

7th: 6/1-2/4-3/7/5/8…The final “Key Play of the Day” comes here Masqueparade (6). This one is even-money in the ML and won’t budge must North of those odds. Comes in off a narrow miss here on May 13 and that was the first start since lasts August. If he improves at all off that exercise? Look out. Rider has won only .05% this meet with 3 of 63. Hmmm. I bet the 6 across the board and then key the 6 over/under the 1-2-4-3-7 in the exactas. I will also box the 1-2-4-3 in the exactas. Hedge. 

8th: 10-9-8/7-6/2-4-5/3/1…Insignia (10) should get the best of this group if the 3YO daughter of Crulin has any run to her, at all. Has not been out since May 1, when she was 2nd in the career debut. Works are solid — especially on June 12. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up. Looks promising with low odds. I bet the 10 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 10 over/under the 9-8-7-6-2-4-5 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene