|Day Results||10 / 5-4-5|
|2020 Overall 1569||1569 / 553-533-676|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.25%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.43%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,020-1,574||64.80%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 72-110||65.45%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 36-110||32.73%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 16-7-1-3||43.75% Win / 68.75% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 213-76-45-30||35.68% Win / 70.89% ITM|
(Diamond Solitaire before Tuesday’s Miss Indiana Stakes / Photos by Gene McLean)
It’s already Wednesday. Wow. Time does fly, even in 2020. Some times.
Have not had a chance to calculate what we did up in our selections at Indy Grand on Tuesday. Just know that after stumbling at the gate and running last into the stretch, our very own Diamond Solitaire came with a rush to finish 4th in the Miss Indiana Stakes yesterday. Got beat a neck for 3rd. Beaten just a single length for 2nd by our arch nemeses Hungarian Princess. Lost it all by less than 4. She ran so good in the stretch and with so much courage. Breaks my heart that she lost all chance at the start.
Diamond is back home safe and sound. We have such high hopes for her in 2021 when she matures into a 3YO filly. More on her a bit later today in our “Why I Own a Racehorse” section.
Today, we move to Churchill Downs. The big oval. And, here’s our look at today’s races:
1st: 6-7/4-2-1/3…We are off and running…This, to me, appears to be a two-horse race. Pure. Simple. Frost Or Frippery (6) has been a money-making machine for the past two years. In 2019, had a record of 7-5-1 in 14 starts. In 2020, much the same — going 7-4-0 in 11 starts. Not a bad record of consistency. Looks to have the game for this one today, as well. Comes from the red-hot barn of trainer Brad Cox and the rider has gone 5-2-1 in the last 16 rides for this barn. Barn wins with .29% when they won the last race, too. Choice. Big time. Overzealous (7) could figure prominently in this condition at any time. If? If the top pick was not involved. This one has gone 5-2-1 in 10 starts this year and 4-3-0 in 11 starts last year. Has a 3-2-0 record in 7 starts at Churchill Downs. Has a 5-2-1 mark in 9 starts at this distance. Will be coming late. Will he have a shot? Maybe. I bet the 6 to win/place and then bet the 6-7 box solid. As in? Solid.
2nd: 8-5-6/4-3-1-7/2…Sworn Silence (8) has lost to two other contenders in here in previous races. But both were close and our top pick was closing in each of those efforts. Was claimed last time out and the new barn operation wins with .15% of those making the first start for the new connections. Has a nice 3-2-2 mark in 10 starts here at Churchill Downs and has a 3-1-3 mark in 11 starts at this distance. Has not won in 4 starts this year, but has hit the board 3 times. Time to knock the door down today. Barn wins with .19% in the claiming ranks. Stellar Stiletto (5) nipped our top pick here on Sept. 18. Stalked and pounced in that affair and was claimed out of that one by this new barn. Has not been close in either of the last two since the purchase, though. Interesting. Returns as a beaten favorite today, and the barn does win with .22% of those. Trending the wrong way for me. Unfading Beauty (6) may be the one to beat and at a square price, too. Drops from the $16,000 level to the $8,000 price tag today. Barn wins with .27% when dropping this much at one time. Has a 4-2-5 mark in 18 starts here and has never been offered up for this short a price tag before. Hmmm. I bet the 6 — take note — and the 8 across the board. I will box the top 3 in the exacta. I will also key the 6-8 over/under the 5-4-3-1-7 in two smaller units.
3rd: 4-1-6/3/2-5…Glamour Girl (4) broke the maiden here two starts back in impressive fashion, taking on the MSW ranks and besting them at the wire by nearly 2 lengths. Was less than 2-1 odds that day, too. Came back to face allowance company at KEE in October. Didn’t fare too well in that one, going 5 wide at the upper stretch and fading late. Barn wins with .14% of those dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time and does win with .20% in all dirt starts. Work here on Nov. 9 was spot on. Flower House (1) has not made the winner’s circle in 4 starts this year, but is a consistent sort and will be running late. Rider is red hot — with 10 wins in the last 21 rides. Returns as a beaten favorite here and the barn wins with .14% of those. Daddymademedoit (6) graduated from the MCL ranks last time out on the grass. Will move to the dirt today for a barn that hits with .18% when making this surface switch. But this one has never hit the board in two previous runs over the dirt. Moves up to face winners for the first time, too, and the barn wins with only .06% of those. Not for me. Not today. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the 4-1-3 (take note). I will key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
4th: 5-10/1-6-4/3-2…OFF TURF…Scratch 8-9…This is a tough one considering the move from the sod to the main track. I will saddle up with Reigning Spirit (5). This 3YO son of War Front could convert to the dirt like so many other sons of War Front have done. War of Will? Ran two nice 2nds before losing at Saratoga on Aug. 1 as the favorite. Barn wins with a whopping .35% of those returning to the gate as a beaten fan’s choice. Looks the best in here. Patriot’s War (10) ran over the dirt the last two outings and has a 2nd and a 3rd to show on the resume. Gets a top rider back in the saddle and the trainer/rider connection has teamed up to go 2-0-1 in the last 6 starts together. Chance. I will be the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the 1-6-4-3-2 in two smaller units.
5th: 1-7-5/6-2-4/8-3…Scratch 5…Dash to the Top (1) figures to be the standout in this grouping, especially considering the nice run against the top-class filly Coach in the Rags to Riches Stakes here on Oct. 25. Lost by only 5 that day and now shortens back up and drops back down to face similar kind in here. The rail is no friend in this 7-furlong contest, that starts in the chute. Especially when you lack sprinter speed. Will need to throttle back and take an outside course. Is she good enough to do that, as well? I think so. Sunshine City (7) ran in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at KY Downs on Sept. 7 in her last try. Went a mile in that one — or tried to. Set the pace early, but nothing left in the end. Goes to the dirt today, and the barn wins with .30% when making this surface switch. Cut back in distance helps, too. Broke the maiden over dirt at Gulfstream Park. Binge Watch (5) broke the maiden last time out when dropped in for a tag. Was claimed out of that one for $50,000 by the current connections. May have been a very wise decision. This daughter of Into Mischief is out of a Stakes-winning mare, too. Got the blinkers for the first time last out. Must face winners today, but the pool is not deep on this end. I bet the 1-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-5 over/under the 7-6-2-4-8-3 in two smaller units.
6th: 6/7/1-9-10-3/11-8…Scratch 4…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with a 2YO daughter of More Than Ready, who is dropping into a $30,000 MCL event for trainer Chad Brown. Claim slips probably raining in on this one today. Ran 2nd at KEE on Oct. 16 for $50,000 tag. Now, this one returns as a beaten favorite at $20,000 less. Barn wins with .28% of those returning as the fan’s choice and wins with .26% of those making the 2nd start off the layup. Looks like a standout in this field. I bet the 6 to win/place and then key the 6 over/under the “all button” here.
7th: 10-5-4/3-9-1/7-6-2…Scratch 8…Wide open affair here for the 2YOs that will sprint and/or stretch out to the testing 7-furlong distance today. I will go with the far outside and saddle up with Conformist (10). This NY-bred gelding broke the maiden here — against open company — last time out on Oct. 30. Won by over 5 that day and flashed speed the entire way. Has worked fast in the a.m., as well. Was claimed out of the debut run by a barn that wins with .34% on first try after the purchase. And, that is with a sample size of 210 horses. Winning rider sticks here, too. Could come out of the gate running. Catch me if you can. High I. Q. (5) ran very well at KEE on Oct. 21 to be second. Rider sides with our top pick, though, and that’s a question mark. Barn is having a very nice meet and selects a good replacement for the saddle job. Could stalk and pounce here at a very nice price. My first Longshot Special of the Day. The next one in our selection process could fit that “longshot” category, too. Two Worlds (4) is 10-1 in the ML and is coming off a nice win here last time out. Must face winners for the first time and steps up in class, but seems to have some talent with the addition of the blinkers. Barn is having another super year. I bet the 10 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 10 over/under the 5-4-3-9-1-7-6-2 in two smaller units.
8th: 10-12/11-2/6-3…OFF TURF…Scratch 1-5-7-8-9…Kim K (10) will make the first career start for the new barn and the first start since Jan. 20. Has been training OK for this one. The barn wins with .14% when returning from this long a layup. Has run in Graded Stakes before and ran up against the likes of Street Band in the G3 Indiana Oaks last year. With the move off the turf here, this one figures prominently. Has shown speed in the past and I would love to see the hot rider move this one right from the gate into a prominent location early on. Singita Dreams (12) has some early run, too, and could motor from the outside gate under the steady hand of a very under-rated and talented rider. Has won two in a row and looks salty here with the move to the dirt, too. Has won three times over the dirt. I bet the 10-12 across the board and then box these two in the exacta. I will key the 10-12 over/under the 11-2-6-3 in two smaller units.
9th: 10-1-7/3/5-6-11-9/4…Stay Happy (10) drops all the way from a $50,000 claimer to the near basement level of $10,000 today. Was claimed just two starts ago for $30,000. Has run 3 times here with a win and a second. In 6 starts over a fast dirt surface, has a 2-1-1 record. Gets a top rider up for a barn that wins with .25% in the 2nd start for the barn operation. This one sticks out here on class alone, if he is ready to roll. Makabim (1) drops from the $30,000 level to the $10,000 tag today, too. Barn wins with .25% when dropping this much. Barn having a great meet and the rider has won with .32% in the last 25 mounts for the trainer. Will be coming late in the proceedings. Chance. Continuum (7) won the last time out and loses that condition. Returns with the same rider up from that event and now has 2 wins and a third in 5 career starts. I will bet the 10-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene