Day Results 10 / 5-2-3
2020 Overall 951 951 / 333-315-383
Win % of Top Pick 35.02%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 36.14%
2020 Top Pick in the Money –609-951 64.04%
Top Selection ITM / SAR 41-66 62.12%
Top Selection Win / SAR 22-66 33.33%
Top Selection ITM / Ellis Park 51-74 68.92%
Top Selections Win / Ellis Park 23-74 31.08%
“Key Horses” @ SAR 10-3-1-1 30.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Key Horses” @ Ellis Park 9/3-3-1 33.33% Win / 77.78% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2020 127-43-27-18 33.86% Win / 69.29% ITM

(Ford helped me “Captain” the boat recently. It’s his 6th birthday this weekend. He is a dandy.)

Ellis Park:

1st: 1/4-5/6…Sworn Silence (1) is getting the huge class drop to the bargain bin for the first time today. Can toss the last outing at Belterra. Went to her nose at the start of that one. Lost all shot. Race back in November was solid and this one ran second to the win machine, Honey Bunny, at Churchill Downs in April of 2019. Better days may be behind her now, but the 5YO is still capable of dropping some “whip butt” on this crowd. My first Key Play of the Day comes right here. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under the numbers listed. I will load up one more time with a 1 over/under the “all button,” too.

2nd: 6-7/1-5/3…Old Timer’s Day (6) picks up a top rider in these parts and he has a win in only previous ride for this barn. Returns as a beaten favorite today, and the trainer hits with .22% of those. Love the recent works and has a 3rd in only previous try here. Look for more today. Rock Me (7) could spoil the party here, too. This 5YO was claimed last time out for $10,000. That was last October. Returns today for a price tag of $5,000. The new barn hits with .15% of those making the second start after the purchase and with .14% when they “drop” off a claim. New rider is winning with .29% of the last 7 mounts for this barn. Keep an eye on the tote board here. Could rock you and me. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 6-7 over (only) the 1-5-3 in two shorter units.

3rd: 8-7/4-6-5/1…Approved (8) drops to a career low price tag here today, after running third against better at Indy Grand on July 16. Has 2 thirds to show for the first 4 efforts. Will make the route for the first time, though, and the barn wins with .12% of those. Barn also scores with .21% of those dropping this much in one swoop. Gets the meet’s top rider up for the first time. Clever. Stop Making Sense (7) is a 3YO son of Tiznow and will drop from the $20,000 tag all the way to $7,500 today. Never been real close at the wire, but does comes from a top barn operator, who is winning with .20% of the last 328 starters this year. Interesting. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will also key the 8-7 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed in two shorter units.

4th: 5-2-4/6/3…The first turf event of the day will be a 1-mile event for the fillies and mares. I go with Charge It Jenn (5). The 4YO Will Take Charge filly cost $100,000 at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. since then, has raced 17 times with a 2-4-2 mark. Will make the Ellis debut today, too. Barn hits with .14% of those switching surfaces to the grass. Has three straight 2nd place finishes and of the last 6 races, she has hit the board in 5 of them. Can stalk and pounce when asked upon. Looks perfectly fitted. Sweet Carolina (2) moves to the turf and the barn hits with .12% when making this surface switch. Won the last time out going gate to wire. Shackle ford County (4) goes with a rider who has tuned up to a 4-2-2 mark in the last 12 starters here. This one won two races back and nearly pulled the trick off again last time out. Has speed to lay close and pounce in the stretch. I bet the 5-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta.

5th: 3-1-4/6-5/2…Baquero Flies (3) has raced three times over this track and has one second to show for the efforts. Works are improving, though, and the rider nearly won on his back just two starts ago. Looked good that day. Reunion time. Golden Rule Haven (1) has a win over this track last time out to break the maiden. Now, this 3YO son of Istan must face winners for the first time. Yet, the barn wins with a whopping .32% of those kind.Peerless Brown (4) could spice up the odds rack a bit here, too. Moves up to tougher after breaking the maiden last time out at Mountaineer Park. Rider has a 2-2-2 record here in 21 starts. Interesting choice. But this son of Blame looks like like he could lay close and move in the stretch. I bet the 3-1 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 3-1 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two shorter versions.

6th: 8-7/2-1/4-9-3/5-10/6-11…This is a 5.5-furlong sprint over the grass course, and I land with the outside entries — led by Stonewood (8). This 3YO filly by Speightstown nearly won last time out. Gave it up at the wire. Hot rider takes the reins today for the first time. Should be on the improve. Sail On Ellen (7) has raced 4 times to date. Never been off the board, either. Has gone with 1 second place finish and 3 thirds. Barn wins with .21% of those that return to the gate as a bean favorite. I bet the 8-7 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 8-7 over/under the 2-1-4-9-3-5 in two shorter units.

7th: 4-1/9-6-2-7/5-3-8…This is a 7-furlong race for the 2YO fillies, and I go with Temper Time (4). This one is trained by Dale Romans and is owned by Mark H. Stanley. Both should be having a fun time this meet. Connections paid $250,00 for this one at the KEE September Yearling last year. Has been training lights out, too. Interesting story line here. Sa Foradada (1) shows a nice work or two in the pen. This one cost $50,000. Chance. I bet the 4 across the board and then I box the 4-1 in one exacta. I will key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed. More with the 1-9-6-2-7 than the rest.

8th: 8-4-5/1-9-11/10-6/3-2-7…Ella Brilla (8) has finished up in the third spot in each of the last 4 races and 5 of the first 6 career outings. Will need to finish one better, but the daughter of Kitten’s Joy and the Empire Maker mare comes from a dam that has already produced 2 turf winners from the first 3 career starters. Like this rider choice on the lawn, too. Beware here. Jen Take Charge (4) has hit the board in 4 of 6 lifetime and will be making the third start off the layup in this one. Top rider saddles back up. Osaka Girl (5) is another from the barn of trainer Brian Lynch. Barn is red hot — going 2-1-1 in 8 starts here so far. Rider has won with .23% of the last 13 mounts for this trainer, too. I bet the 8-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 8-5 with the 4-1-9-11-10-6 in two smaller picks.

9th: 4-9/2-8/(11)-(12)-(14)/1-6-5-7/10-3…The last race of the day is another lawn event and I will focus on Elite Class (4) in this spot. The 3YO gelded son of Will Take Charge ran huge last time out — just to run out of ground at the finish line. Two starts back, he faced off with the highly touted son of Bernardini: Dean Martini. The latter will run in the Ellis Park Derby on Sunday. Look out here. Two by Two (9) drops another couple of rungs after a misfire last time out. The addition of blinkers has not help immensely, but that should have aided some. I bet the 4 to win place/show and then box the 4-9 in one exacta. Pretty strong. After that, I will bet the 4-9 over/under the 2-8 and any of the AE horses listed in two more exactas. I will key the 4-9 over (only) the 1-6-5-7-10-3, too.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene