|Day Results||9 / 2-2-2|
|2020 Overall 803||803 / 287-260-319|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.74%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.95%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –515-803||64.13%|
|Top Selection ITM / KEE 11-18||61.11%|
|Top Selection Win / KEE 6-18||33.33%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 1-0-0-0||00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 107-37-24-15||34.58% Win / 71.03% ITM|
A rather disappointing and frustrating day on Thursday, to be honest. We scratched out two winners, yet both of those were favorites. Two of our top picks of the day ran second — one by a stinking nose. And, our top pick of the day got blocked completely and had no chance.
One of those days…as they say. And, no, I don’t know who “they” are.
But we are back at the drawing board. We are back at the trough. And, we are back to drink a little water — maybe mixed with some of our favorite adult beverage — too.
Here’s our look at today’s card:
1st: 7-6-4/1-3/5…Bizzee Channel (7) has never been over a fast dirt track, but the 4YO son of English Channel does have the most consistent form against the best company of any of these. Can he adapt? We shall see, but if he can? I think he is lengths the best. Works here are just so-so. Makes you wonder, a bit. Edgemont Road (6) has never won over a fast dirt track and he has been on one 7 times. Didn’t hit the board in lone try here, either. Did break the maiden at Oaklawn Park and has run against some good ones before — like Tank Commander and Mr. Dumas. Usable. My Man Flintstone (4) drops into the claiming ranks for the first time and the barn hits with .17% of these. Does have a second over this surface, too, and gets a top rider up. Could be the one to beat. I bet the 7-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta.
2nd: 6-2/1-1A-8/7-3-4/9-5…Sursum Corda (6) ran a huge one last time out, despite going to the far outside and 5-wide in the upper stretch. This one will need some racing luck late, and some room to spare. Will be coming in the final strides. Gets a top lawn rider in the saddle for the first time and the barn hits with .13% of those making the 2nd start off the layup. Fortuna (2) nearly won last time out at Belmont Park when negotiating the 11/4-mile distance. That was at odds of nearly 30-1. She will likely get bet way down today and, perhaps, will go off at the PT favorite. I don’t like wagering those types. But has the pedigree to be tough. Horse to Watch Here? Take Charge Patti (8), who is listed at 10-1 in the ML. Ran a good one last time out at Churchill and now stretches out a bit more. Look who won that one. Ring a bell? I bet the 6-8 across the board and then box the 6-2-1-8 in one exacta. I will key the 6-8 over/under the 2-1-7-3-4 in two smaller units. Going for the gusto here.
3rd: 1-8-4/2-6-7/5-3…I will go with the 3YO going up against the older ones in here — Gozilla (1). This one — by Flatter — looked like a real good thing last summer as a 2YO. Won at Saratoga on debut, crushing a field by nearly 5 lengths — even after hitting the gate. Tough stuff. Went on to run 3rd against stablemate Basin in the G1 Hopeful Stakes next out and was fourth to Tiz the Law in the G1 Champagne last October. Has not run since then. But the works are spot on and this one may prefer the sprint distance. If he gets out from the gate OK? May be gone. Needs to break. Breaking News (8) is a first-time gelding for the barn of Ron Moquett. Ran a good one last time out and has faced some good ones in the past. Will be coming late. May help that he gets this new rider. A good one. Wild Popit (4) may spice up the odds rack here. Broke the maiden at Oaklawn Park, and those horses have been running well every where they go. Rider change, too. The winner two back just came back to win again and could be a real good one. Chance. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.
4th: 3/6-11-9-8/5-10…This is a 5.5-furlong event over the sod for the 2YO fillies. A game where trainer Wesley Ward specializes. He has Guana Cay (3) with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle. Good works here. By a stallion who specialized on the turf. Enough for me. Especially in this field. I bet the 3 to win/place and then key over/under the “all button.”
5th: 7-8/6-1-2-3/5/4…Bourbon Resolution (7) just may be sitting on a huge one. This will be the second try off the layup, and the barn hits with .13% of those. But the race on June 7 at Churchill Downs was spot on against a good one and the works since have been spot-on, too. Has a win over this track and has facd some good ones in the past. Throw out the two turf tries, and this one is 3-2-3 in 12 starts — including some Graded Stakes events. My choice. Strong. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-8 in one exacta. I will key the 7-8 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
6th: 2-4-8/1/3-7/6-9-5…Wide open affair here with plenty of choices, but I will go with the 3YO facing olders — again. Complexifier (2) has not raced since last November and this is an ambitious spot — admittedly. But the son of Overanalyze has speed and has talent. Lost to Shoplifted to start the career at Saratoga last July and then quickly turned things around. Last start, he ran third to a horse that won the next time out and has been mentioned for the G2 Blue Grass Stakes here on Saturday. I’m in. Much Better (4) should be just that in the second start for the new trainer — Steve Asmussen. Ran OK in the barn’s debut and in the 2020 debut on June 7 at Churchill Downs. Just tired in that one late. Cuts back in distance today and should be fitter. Watch out here. Candy Cornell (8) comes from the barn of Robertson Deodoro — who has won with .23% of 681 starters this year. This one has been a machine since switching to his control in February. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two smaller versions.
7th: 2-4-3/6-1/5…G3 Beaumont Stakes…Any horse alive that can run within a neck of Gamine will get a check by her name in my book. And, we one of those in the 7-furlong test here. She is Speech (2), who just ran 2nd to the grand Swiss Skydiver (who will test the boys in the G2 Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday) in the G2 Santa Anita Oaks. Backs up in distance today and that should help this 3YO daughter of Mr. Speaker. Florida-bred has never missed the board, but does have a pattern of running a lot of seconds. Record shows a 1-4-1 mark on the board. Interesting. Still, my choice with HOFer Javier Castellano coming in for the ride. Wicked Whisper (4) has not raced in 2020 or since finishing a distant 5th in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last November. But the first two races of the career were spectacular and the works getting prepped for this one are spot on. Should love this distance, too. She drilled Frank’s Rockette, who just won a Stake in NY last weekend. Four Graces (3) has won 3 times in 4 outings. But she will have to step it up today. Class and gut check time. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-4 over/under the rest of the numbers in two shorter versions.
8th: 8-4-10/9-5/1-3-6…I bet Without Parole (8) in the G1 Shoemaker Mile on May 25, in a race that was won by his stablemate and foe today — Raging Bull (4). I still think that Without Parole was the best horse that day. Got caught on the rail with absolutely no place to go by rider Jose Ortiz. Waited. Waited. Waited. Waited. Lost all chance. Gets a new rider in brother Irad Ortiz, Jr., today and that could be the difference in the two spot. I’m back on. Raging Bull (4) has won over $1.1 million in purses and has a record of 6-2-2 in 13 lifetime starts. Has a win over this track. And, ran up against Bricks and Mortar over and over last year. Serious racehorse. But…ran 4th in this event last year and I still think was 2nd best in the Shoemaker. War of Will (10) will return to the grass for the 2nd time in a row and has never won over the sod in 5 tries. Tough ask today. But this one may be the only true legit speed in the race. May get the jump on the closers and may be more fit for this one, too. Could shock here. I bet the 8-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 9-5 in two smaller numbers.
9th: 6-4-12/10-8-5/7-9-11-(15)…Backshot (6) ran a good one last out against MSW company and now gets the class drop into the MCL ranks for the first time. Barn hits with .26% of those. Cut back in distance may help, too, and the barn wins with .26% of those, as well. Gets a top rider up for this one. Real threat. Major Attraction (4) nearly won at this level last time, but tired at the end. In 4 previous runs, has two seconds and a third. Can he finish one? On Your Mark (12) is my Upset Special of the Day. This son of Mark Valeski is a first time gelding for the barn of Gregory Foley and has been working lights out of late. Look for this one to wheel early and often from the outside. Don’t know if he is good enough to beat our top pick, but at 15-1 odds? Worth a little shot. I bet the 6-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6-12 over/under the 4-10-8-5-7 in two smaller.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene