|Day Results||9 / 2-4-2|
|2020 Overall 1277||1277 / 453-424-526|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.47%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.62%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –829-1,277||64.92%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 106-152||69.74%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 55-152||36.18%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 26-7-8-4||26.92% Win / 73.08% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 178-58-42-26||32.58% Win / 70.79% ITM|
We will begin the beautiful, Fall, October race meeting at the historic Keeneland Race Course on Friday, Oct. 2. Unfortunately, the fans and spectators — who pack the hilltops to watch and wager on one of the best race meets in all the free world — will not be allowed on the premises.
We have to stop this madness. Truly.
We have to invite our people back. Seriously.
If you can put 18,000 people in a football stadium?
If you can put thousands in a soccer stadium?
You and I should be able to put ourselves in a racetrack stadium. Safely. Comfortably.
But that’s another story for another day. Maybe the Kentucky Supreme Court can rule on that, too. Perhaps, Justice Laurence Van Meter can opine on that. Yet, we digress.
Here’s a look at today’s selections on the first day of the glorious Fall Meet:
1st: 1-4/2-5/6…Eel Point (1) is a 3YO gelded son of Into Mischief and this one really ran well in his last outing at Churchill Downs on Sept. 3. Made the first two career starts on the West Coast for HOF trainer Bob Baffert. Now, this one looks better suited for his marketplace. Has returned to work very well here. Gets the same top rider back in the irons. Major threat. Civil Servant (4) was beaten a nose just two starts back when getting moved to the turf for the first time. Returns to the dirt today and this one should be a factor against the likes of these. Barn wins with .20% when making this surface switch and with .17% of those dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 1-4 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.
2nd: 10-7-1/8-4-2/6-9/5-3…Farsighted (10) will make the 2nd career start today for a trainer that wins with .10% when making the return to the oval. Sharp work here on Sept. 26. Came with a rush in the first outing and the “Show” horse in the first outing came right back to win the next outing. Well-bred daughter of Bernardini should be a threat with a better start here. Rawan (7) will make the career debut for a HOF trainer, who hits with .18% on the debut run. Sire of this one, though, produces .16% winners in the first career start. This one working well, too. Threat. Mania (1) will make the 2nd career start for a new trainer and the first one since running 6th in the G3 Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs on Sept. 3. Should appreciate this class level and if she can stretch her speed, could be dangerous. I bet the 10-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 10-7 over/under the 1-8-4-2-6-9 in two smaller units.
3rd: 1-2/5-6/3…Risky Mandate (1) could kick start a very nice day for trainer Tom Amoss, one of the best barn operators in all the racing world. This 4YO daughter of Strong Mandate has posted a 2-2-2 mark in the first 7 starts. Ran poorly in a G1 Stakes the last time out. Spit the bit through that one. Cuts back to 7 furlongs today and that should boost this one’s efforts. In 2 previous runs at this distance? Has a win and a third. Love the work at CD on Sept. 24. Watch out here. Club Car (2) has raced twice at this distance, too, and has the same record as our top pick. Last time here was on July 9. Ran a very nice 2nd that day. In 11 career starts, this one has a 2-3-3 record. Consistent and will be coming late. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-2 in the exacta. Sternly. Then I will key the 1-2 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed.
4th: 7-6-1/5-2/3-4…This is the first turf event of the meet and I will go with Blame Debbie (7) ion this spot. The 3YO daughter of Blame won her last time out, when marathoning at KY Downs. But…She was disqualified from that one and placed 3rd. The barn wins with .20% of those that return to the fray as a beaten favorite. Drops in class for this one, too. And, could be tough at this distance. In 4 turf runs so far? Just 2 thirds on the record. Concern. Urban Fairytale (6) has 6 turf starts so far and has a win. But has 2 more seconds to add to the resume. Here, she has a second in only previous run. Deep closer could be ready today. Aurelia Garland (1) comes out of a G3 event at Del Mar. Ran OK in that one and the winner came right back to win the next outing. New rider — who has made headlines and the winner’s circle photo session many times — comes to the Commonwealth. Interesting. Thus? This one is my first UPSET SPECIAL OF THE DAY. I bet the 7-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 7-1 over/under the numbers listed in two smaller units.
5th: 10-9-4/1-7-3/2-8-6/5…Off We Go (10) is a 2YO daughter of Air Force Blue and is another trained by Tom Amoss. This gal ran a very nice second on debut at Churchill Downs on Sept. 4. Has returned to train lights out in the a.m. Top rider takes the reins again. Tough field for this MSW event. But I go here. Sun Path (9) will make the career debut for a barn that wins with .18% of those kind. The dam of this one has 2 winners from the first 2 starters and there’s a Stakes winner in that group, too. Working well. Look out. Super Quick (4) goes for a talented young trainer, who has managed to win with .18% of those on their 2nd career start. Ran well in the debut over a muddy track. Has returned to work very well since. If she gets a fast surface? Could be gone. I bet the 10 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 10 over/under all the numbers listed in the exacta.
6th: 9-7/10-8-1/4-6-5/2-3…This is another deep and talented field. Tough. But this is another race that I will saddle up with the Amoss’ runner. Spun d’Etat (9) ran off to an impressive 4-length win to break the maiden last time out. That came at Saratoga. Has lost to a couple of others who are in this field. But I think this one is fast and lastly improving, too. Look out here. Lady Lilly (7) ran 3rd in the G1 Spinaway last time out for the barn of HOF trainer Steve Asmussen. This daughter of Nyquist cost $280,000 and has speed to burn. Talented. And, gets Tyler Gaffalione to ride. Very interesting. I bet the 9-7 across the board and then hit the 9 with another nice win bet. I key the 9 over/under all the numbers listed and then hit the 9-7 on a stern exacta box, too. Love the 9 here. Love.
7th: 5-8/3-4-2/7-1…I Hear You (5) returns as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .22% of them. Has run two nice ones in a row and one of them was right here — at KEE in July. Broke the maiden with a nice late run. Got to think that this daughter of Street Sense is only getting better since then. Luck Money (8) is a daughter of Lookin At Lucky and is coming off a very nice race in a Stakes event at KY Downs. In 8 career starts, has only one win. But…has a 1-3-4 record. Underneath may be the best bet for this one. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-8 in one exacta. I will key the 5-8 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
8th: 6-3-5/4-12-9/8-2-1…G2 Phoenix Stakes…Echo Town (6) is one of the toughest competitors in the racing game today. In 8 career starts, the son of Speightstown has a resume of 4 wins, 2 seconds and 1 third. Has faced some of the best sprinters of his generation, too. But now, the 3YO will step up and face older ones for the first time. The cutback in distance should help and the barn wins with .23% when going from a route to a sprint race. My 2nd UPSET SPECIAL OF THE DAY. The runner-up spot — in my calculations — goes to the “old man” in this group. Whitmore (3) is now a 7YO gelding, but he doesn’t seem to have lost much in his older days. This year, he has 2 wins and 2 seconds in 5 starts. The only time he missed the board was in the G1 Forego Stakes at Saratoga — in the last outing. Caught a very sloppy racetrack that day and didn’t seem to care for his footing at all. Should return to a fast track today, and he has a win and two seconds in 3 previous runs here. Can’t count out this guy. No Parole (5) didn’t like the speed duel that he encountered in the G1 H. Allen Jerkens Stakes last time out. Spit the bit in that one. But trainer Tom Amoss is amazing, and he may employ a different strategy with this speedball today. Could back off the speed try here and come from a bit farther back. If he can learn to do that and use his speed a bit later in the proceedings? Watch out. I bet the 6-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 4-12 in two smaller units.
9th: 1-4-2/3-6-7/5…G1 Alcibiades Stakes…I have given a lot of thought to this race and I will go with the undefeated and mucho talented Thoughtfully (1) in this one today. The 2YO daughter of Tapit, who cost a hefty $950,000 to purchase at Fasig-Tipton’s Saratoga Yearling Sale last year, has run off to easy wins in each of the first two efforts. But she will stretch out to two turns for the first time today. Barn wins with .16% when routing for the first time. The rail may be an interesting spot, too. In the past, the rail has yielded .18% winners. Already a G2 winner. Looking for more. No reason why she can’t add to that resume. Crazy Beautiful (4) ran 2nd in the G3 Pocahontas Stakes last time out and that was the first time in 3 career starts that she did not get her picture taken after the race. Barn wins with .18% of those returning as a beaten favorite and this one has gone a mile already. Is a deep closer. Will need some racing room and luck. Travel Column (2) won the debut effort by a crushing 41/4 lengths. Cruised in that one. But she will stretch out for the first time. Barn wins with .24% of those routing for the first time, and comes in off a very nice work on Sept. 26. Looks ready. Come catch me if you can. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
10th: 11-3-5/2-7-10/(14)-4-13-12-1/(15)-(16)…The final race of the day is a 11/16-mile test over the sod and it will be for the 2YOs. I go to the far outside and land on and with the first time starter Narmer (11). If this sone of American Pharoah can get a nice, ground-saving trip negotiated by rider Joel Rosario, he could be a pure handful at the wire. Works are great. Connections paid $525 for this one. And? He is trained by the best turf conditioner in the whole, wide world. Look out. Royal Prince (3) won the last time out. Easily. Impressively. So how is he in a MSW race? Well, that event was declared a “non-wagering” event when the starting gate popped open before all the horses were even in the stall. So? He is back. Has talent. Has experience. May have to do it again. Conquest Rainycity (5) ran 2nd in the last outing and looked impressive in doing it. Barn wins with .14% with the 2YO ranks. I bet the 11-3 across the board and then box the top 2 in the exacta. Take note. I go rather stern here. I then key the 11-3 over/under the 5-2-7-10-14-4-13 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene