Final Version: McLean’s Selections for Keeneland on Saturday, April 16

We managed only 3 winners out of the 9 races carded on the Thursday card, but we had 7 exactas to return payoffs. Of our 3 “Key Plays of the Day,” we had zero winners — but we had all 3 to finish 2nd-place.

So, our handicapping was close…just not close enough to make a huge payday.

We skipped the Friday card, due to the fact that we were at both Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis on Thursday — preventing me much time to do my handicapping.

But we are back with our Saturday plays. Here’s our looks:

1st: 4-6-3/5-1/2-7…Believing (4) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter in the Bluegrass central city. This 4YO Street Sense filly comes in off a poor performance over the grass at the Fair Grounds last time out. Drops into the claiming ranks for the first time here and cuts back to a sprint over the dirt, too. Has never run over a fast dirt surface. We shall see. But the barn wins with a whopping .27% of the last 187 to make the first start in the claimers. Worth a shot. Lizy D (6) ran well at this level last time out and had a shot to win, when getting the blinkers for the first time. Could improve with the shades. Yes to Mischief (3) had a sharp work on April 10 and drops into the claiming ranks for the first time, as well. Barn wins with .18% of the last 66 to do that. Gets a red-hot rider, who has won with over .25% for the meet. Threat. I bet the 4-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 4-3 over/under the 6-5-1-2-7 in two smaller units.

2nd: 12/2-6-8/11/10/3-1/5…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes in the 2nd race of the day, too, with Growth Capital (12). This 3YO son of War Front made a huge move to be 2nd in the career debut and as the fan’s favorite. Barn is having a solid meet here and the rider has won with .42% of the last 20 mounts for this trainer. Look out. I bet the 12 across the board and then key the 12 over/under the 2-6-8-11-10 in the exactas. More with the 2-6-8 than the rest.

3rd: 1-7/1A-9/3/4-8/6-5…Sterling Miss (1) will pick up a huge rider switch here and could be a tough out for a well-respected horseman . Has hit the board in the last 3 races and 23 out of 37 lifetime. Could be a tough out here. Remain Anonymous (7) could upset the apple cart and add to the pari-mutuels here, too. This 5YO Tapiture mare nearly won last time out and drops into the claiming ranks here, now. Barn wins with .16% when making this kind of a drop. This one has hit the board in 9 of the last 10. Consistent sort. I bet the 1-7 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 1-7 over/under the 9-3-4-8 in two smaller units.

4th: 8-10/3-4-9-(13)/7-2-5/6-1-11…Under Oath (8) nearly won the career debut before tiring late over a very sloppy track. That exercise and experience should help immensely. Gets a huge rider switch here and the barn wins with .21% of there last 268 to make the 2nd career start. Look out. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-10 in the exactas. I will key the 8-10 over/under the 3-4-9-13-7-2-5 in two smaller units.

5th: 6-(15)/4-(14)/2-5-9-11-(13)/7-12-1…This is a 11/16-mile turf event and I will belly up to the pari-mutuel bar and order a nice shot of Limited Liability (6). This 3YO son of Kitten’s Joy is made — through and through — for the sod. Will make the 2022 debut here after winning and running two consecutive 3rds last year. Gets Lasix for the first time here. Training very well. If ready? Could be very steady. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-15 in the exactas. I will key the 6 over/under the 15-4-14-2-5-9-11-13. Some of those may scratch.

6th: 6/2-1-4/3/7/5…The next “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Wayakin (6), who comes into this one off a very nice 2nd down at Oaklawn Park in the last affair. Lost to Caddo River in that one, and he was in the KY Derby in 2021. This one could improve with an off-track. Take note. Sharp work on April 8. I bet the 6 across the board and then key the 6 over/under the 2-1-4-3-7 in the exactas. 

7th: 6-1-11/3-5-7-9/10-8/4/2…Injunction (6) was no match for the likes of Speaker’s Corner in the G2 Gulfstream Park Mile last time out, but should fit nicely ink this crowd. Won two in a row in KY last Fall and one of those came right here and was a walk-over by nearly 10 lengths. Sharp work last time and should love the shorter distance here, too. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 6-1-11 over/under the 3-5 in two smaller units.

8th: 5-3/6-8-14-11-12/2/4…Giant’s Causeway Stakes…Change of Control (5) will carry the torch for trainer Michelle Lovell in this 5.5-furlong event over the sod. Has run this distance 19 times so far. Has a sparkling record of 6-5-4 in those tries. Ran 3rd last time out, but was left at the gate to begin that sprint. Can’t afford a bobble or a blip with this short a race. Trainer is one of the best in the sport, and a great ambassador for the game, too. Love to see her win this one. Campanelle (3) is a top filly, and has won 4 of 7 lifetime starts. Working nicely for the return and gets a rider who has won with .33% of the last 9 mounts for this trainer, too. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-3 in the exactas. I will key the 5-3 over/under the 6-8-14-11-12 in two smaller units.

9th: 2-8/7-11-10/4-9/5-1…G3 Lexington Stakes…This 11/16-mile event is the last prep for this year’s “Road to the Kentucky Derby.” The final group of horses — all of whom are scrambling for the necessary points to make the 20-horse field this year — is led by In Due Time, in my own mind. This 3YO son of Not This Time drew the ire of some when he was guided into the path of a couple of other opponents in the G2 Fountain of Youth last time out. Two horses hit the ground and after the race, the Stewards had a little heart-to-heart with jockey Paco Lopez. Can run. Could win. Has never been off the board in the first four career starts. Legit optimism here. Strava (8) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This 3YO son of Into Mischief cost $825,000, and demands a lot of attention at the windows. Burt? Can he gear up early enough to make a huge run before this one is over? Legit question. I bet the 2-8 across the board and then box the 2-8 in the exactas. I will key the 2-8 over/under the 7-11-10-4-9-5 in two smaller units.

10th: 3/4/2-5/6-1…G1 Jenny Wily Stakes…Shantisara (3) a 4YO filly who has won 5 times in the first 9 career starts and has 2 more 2nd-place finishes on the resume gets the nod in this G1 event over the Keeneland green, green grass of home. This Irish-bred has won the last 3 — including the G1 Queen Elizabeth Challenge Cup here last October. Will be making the 2022 debut here. Can win off the bench. Could win here. I bet the 3 across the board and then key the 3 over/under the 4-2-5-6-1 in the exactas.

11th: 4-8/2/7-11/3/1-5-6…The finale is a 7-furlong sprint over the main dirt track for the older colts and geldings. I give the edge to the highly-respected Highly Motivated (4). This one has not run since finishing 10th in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. But has been working very well and will get the benefit of Lasix for the first time. Trainer wins with .24% of the last 131 to get the anti-bleeder initially. Love the rider choice here, too. Huge threat. Ducale (8) comes from the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning at a .27% clip here this meet. Has never missed the board after 5 career starts and has a near-miss 2nd last time out in November. Look out here. Training superbly. I bet the 4-8 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 4-8 over/under the 2-7-11-3 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene