|Day Results||9 / 6-7-4|
|2020 Overall 1404||1404 / 497-469-593|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.40%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.01%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –909-1,404||64.74%|
|Top Selection ITM / KEE 75-116||64.66%|
|Top Selections Win / KEE 41-116||35.34%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 10-7-1-1||70.00% Win / 90.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 190-65-43-27||34.21% Win / 71.05% ITM|
Again, what a day we had on Sunday. If you want to rub it in a bit more? Look at our earlier post. If not, look forward.
Here’s hoping we can duplicate that effort. Today would not be too soon.
Here’s a look at our picks for Wednesday:
1st: 5-3-4/8-6/7…Patty Kaye’s Wild (5) moves up in class a notch or two after running the 2nd straight 2nd last time out at Churchill Downs. Last time was over the main dirt track, after a switch from the turf. Barn is 0-for-12 when inching up the class order, but in two runs over a fast dirt track? Has a second and a third in two tries. Looks ready to break the maiden. Curlita (3) is another moving up in the class ranks. Was 5th last time out in the same race as the top pick. Gets a new rider for this one, and I’m already on record as not being overly bullish with some of his mount efforts. So? Moving on. Not a Needy Gal (4) is owned by my great friend and partner Mike Schnell. She ran 3rd last time out and has a full sister now running the sand off Puerto Rico. Barn wins with .14% when making the third start off a layup. Chance. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 8-6 in two smaller units.
2nd: 1-3-7/2B-1A-2/5-4…Sunny Isle Beach (1) is there preferred selection of the two entered by trainer Wesley Ward. Since he named the same rider on each, I would imagine that one of these will get the itch and be scratched prior to post. The top pick is losing the blinkers and the barn wins with .21% of those, and will shift from the turf to the dirt this time out. Barn wins with .28% of those making this surface switch. Rider is 5-1-4 in the last 15 mounts. Red. Hot. Tkotchke (3) is a word that I cannot pronounce. Not even if they sounded it out for me. So, I call him #3. This 2YO son of Frosted won last time out by a nostril hair when racing over at Churchill Downs on Sept.19. Came late in that one. Could impress again here. Two Worlds (7) comes from the barn of Tom Amoss, who is having another super year. This one broke the maiden last time out for $30,000. Gets a rider who has done well for this barn this meet. This 2YO son of Tapiture cost $50,000 earlier this year. Now, in for $40,000. Bigger truck? I bet the 1-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-3 over/under the 7-2B-5-4 in two softer versions.
3rd: (13)-2-10-11/7-4-3-(15)-6/(16)-1-8-9-5…The first race of the day that is originally carded for the damp, soft and yielding grass course. I will lean heavily on Cadence (13), if there is any way that his 2YO daughter of Mshawish draws in from the AE List. Raced only once to date. Nipped at the wire in a MSW event at Belmont Park on Sept. 20. Bran wins withy .26% in the second career race, and with .17% of those making the 2nd grass effort. Work on Oct. 11 was good. Meet’s top winning rider takes the reins for the first time. Good choice. Tiz Splendid News (2) gets the nod if the top pick does not draw into the body of the race. This 2YO daughter of Maclean’s Music lost by a single nose hair in the first effort — which was at Kentucky Downs on Sept. 16. That’s a very difficult place to win at first ask. Was heavily bet in the career debut. Threat. Lake Blakeney (10) and Madame Ready (11) both warrant a look and some considerations. The former is coming off a second when racing over the slop at Pimlico. Back to the turf for a top conditioner. The latter will be making the career debut, but the a.m. works are solid and the barn wins with .18% on debut. Chance. I bet the 13, if she gets in. If not? Then I load on the 2 across the board. I will key the 13-2 over/under the 10-11-7-4-3-15-6 in two smaller versions.
4th: 1-5/8-2-4-6/3-7…Bump (1) is a 2YO Orb colt, who is making the career debut here. Tough to ask a first-timer to take the rail position. Some shy. Some dance. Some nearly go crazy. But the dam of this one has already thrown a winner. The rider has gone 4-4-1 in the last 13 starts for the barn. The works are solid, if not spectacular. Adds up. If he can spring loose early and move over a notch or two. Conformist (5) is my first Upset Special of the Day. This 2YO gelded son of Hit It a Bomb is a NY-bred and will be making the career debut. But the sire wins with .17% of the first time starters, and the dam of this one has a winner from just one starter. Barn wins withy .20% in the MCL ranks, too. I bet the 1-5 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 1-5 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.
5th: 2-3-5/8/6-1-4/7…Intrepid Heart (2) won impressively each of the last two outs. Was claimed last time, too, but returned to the original owners after the race. Has been off since August and that race, too. But the barn wins with .22% coming off this kind of vacation. Work on Oct. 15 at Saratoga was spot on. In one previous try here, has a win. In two races at this distance, has two wins. Lone Rock (3) was claimed two races back and the barn is on a real tear. In 16 starts here, has a 5-3-5 mark. Drops in class for this one and is the one to beat at 6-1 odds. Upset Special of the Day II? I think so. Mi Tres Por Ciento (5) runs for a trainer having a super meet here — winning at a .26% clip in 39 starts. This one stumbled and lost the rider last time out. Same jockey today. Will try to hold on. When he does? He wins a lot. I bet the 2-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 8 in two more exactas.
6th: 2-7/5-6/4-8/1-3…Pass the Plate (2) ran a very nice 4th behind Harvey’s Lil Goil two races ago. The latter came back to win a huge Stakes event here earlier this meet. In 7 turf tries to date, Pass has a 2-0-3 mark and does have a win over this surface last fall. Love the rider choice. Work at CD on Oct. 18 was spot on. My pick. Carpe Vinum (7) was overmatched in the last outing, but that was against some real good ones — like Harvey’s, too. In 7 grass starts, this one has 2 wins and 2 thirds. Will likely push the pace from a nice stalking position. Meet’s top jock gets up for the first time. Take note. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box them in the exacta. Sternly. I then key the 2-7 over/under the 5-6-4-8 in two smaller units.
7th: 1-2/4-8-5-3/6…Today’s featured event is a nice 7-furlong contest over the main track, and I will go to the rail with Impeccable Style (1). It is absolutely crucial that this one — with Ricardo Santana, Jr. in the bike — breaks cleanly and moves into a good position coming out of the chute. If not? Could be locked behind with nowhere to go and nowhere to hide. Will be making the first start for a new barn operator. New trainer wins with .24% on debut. And, this one did run 2nd to KY Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil in the G3 Indiana Oaks. Stylish. O Seraphina (2) could have been my top pick if not for the fact that she has not run since Feb. 22. Barn wins with .22% of those coming back from that long a vacation, but this one will grab some good ones in here. And, they may be a tad more fit. This one did run second to Taraz — who was a real good one before suffering a training injury at Oaklawn Park this Spring. This one also whipped Fair Grounds Oaks winner Bonny South. Has talent. Will travel. Threat if fit. I bet the 1-2 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. Sternly. I then key the 1-2 over/under the rest of the numbers in two shorter units.
8th: 7-10-3/2-4-9/1-8/5-6…The last race of the day, and I will go with Fortuna (7). This 3YO daughter of Medaglia d’Oro has a couple of 2nds in the first 5 starts. Has run well in a couple of grass marathons before, too. Should be fit. Should be close to the pace. Gets a top rider up for the first time. And, barn wins with .20% of those returning as the favorite. Pick. Longpants Required (10) could offer some value play here. This 3YO daughter of New Year’s Day ran 4th last time out at CD on Sept. 26. Was the favorite that day, but had all kinds of traffic issues. All. Kings. In tight. Shied. Issues. Gets a new rider today and the barn wins with .27% of those returning as a beaten favorite. Leah Chase (3) has two seconds in a row. May improve in the 3rds start off a layup, and the barn wins with .15% of those kind. This is one of those “kind.” Has the grass pedigree from top of nose to bottom of hoof. Chance. I bet the 7-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 7-3 over/under the 10-2-4-9-1-8 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene