|Day Results||7 / 3-2-3|
|2020 Overall 908||908 / 319-303-364|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.13%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.20%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –580-908||63.88%|
|Top Selection ITM / SAR 29-42||69.05%|
|Top Selection Win / SAR 15-42||35.72%|
|Top Selection ITM / Ellis Park 39-55||70.91%|
|Top Selections Win / Ellis Park 16-55||29.09%|
|“Key Horses” @ SAR 6-2-1-1||33.33% Win / 66.67% ITM|
|“Key Horses” @ Ellis Park 9/3-3-1||33.33% Win / 77.78% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 123-42-27-18||34.15% Win / 70.74% ITM|
Don’t know why, really, but handicapped the full card at Saratoga today. Lots of NY-bred only events on the card. Lots of questions. Lots of opportunities, though.
So, let’s take advantage. Play a little. Try a lot. Win some?
Here’s our looks:
1st: 6-4/7-5/3-2-1A/(3)…If the lid-lifter comes off the turf, then you have to consider the “Main Track Only” entry Looking Dyamic (3). Nice odds, too. But if it stays sod, then I go with my top two picks and key on those. Tonal Vision (6) goes for a chilly-cold barn that has not won a race in 12 starts here, and has burned some serious money, too, along the way. This 3YO filly cost $95,000 at the 2018 KEE September Yearling Sale. Now, she’s offered up for half that price. Drops to a career low level and will make the 3rd start off the layup. Barn win s with .18% of those. Maybe grass? Helps? Sugar Fix (4) goes for a barn that has won only .05% of 22 starts this year. Hmmm. Gets the first start for this new barn operation after winning three in a row and four of the last 5, though. Gets a top rider for the NY journey. Let’s see if she can bring her game with her. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-4 in one exacta. I will key the 6 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
2nd: 1-8-2/3-9-6/7-10…A NY-bred only event and I will go to the rail and land on Unrelenting Force (1). This one gets a new rider and will make the 2nd start after a claim purchase. Barn hits with .14% of those. Look for the drop back to this level — like two races ago — to be the key. Not Above Me (8) is a first timer for the barn of Chad Brown. He only wins with .18% that start the career in the MCL ranks, though. Hmmmm. Does have some solid works. Gets a HOF rider. This one cost $710,000 at a 2YO sale last year. Now, offered for $40,000? Needs a bigger truck. Cause me a little burn. Danegeld (2) could offer some real value here. Has run three straight 2nds to start the career. Gets a upscale in riders. And, the barn wins with .23% of those returning as a beaten favorite. Must use for me. Upset Special of the Day if he stays anywhere near 8-1 in the odds category. I bet the 1-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I key the 1-2 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
3rd: 7-(9)-2/6-5-4/1…If this one stays on the grass, I go with Rosebud’s Hope (7). The 5YO mare doesn’t look like she has a great turf pedigree to me, but the dam does have one turn winner — and this is it. Returns off a layup, and the barn can coach them off the bench to the circle. Gets a huge rider switch and has speed. Speed does help. No matter the distance. My pick. Daria’s Angel (9) is a must use if this one comes off the turf and heads to the Main Track. Won the last time out. Has speed, too. Dam was a Stakes-winner and this one has a record of 8-8-6 in 34 lifetime starts. Knows her way around the track and can find a circle at the end. I bet the 7 to win/place/show, unless it comes off the sod. If it does, I go strong on the 9. I box the top 3 in the exacta, and key the top 2 numbers over (only) the rest in small unit.
4th: 2-3-7/4-5-8…Our Lady of Loreto (2) has been spot on since adding blinkers two races ago. Love this rider choice. Barn hits with .24% of those coming back as a beaten favorite. Has speed. Lots of it. Lots. Charlotte Webley (3) is making the 3rd start off a layup, and the barn hits with .25% of those. Won the last time out and now must face winners, though. I hate betting those types, but the barn wins with .22%. Another speedster. If the top two burn each other up, it could set up nicely for Enough Love (7). This one moves up a bit in the price tag, but gets back to NY-breds only. Look at the last time she faced only those. A win. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I bet the 2-7 over/under the 3-4-5-8 in two smaller units.
5th: 5-8-(4)/1-10-2/9-3/6-7-(11)…A grass event for only the NY-breds here, and they will journey a distance of ground. I’ll go with Rinaldi (5), and I will go strong here. This one ran 4th n the G3 Saran here last August. Need the last race at Belmont Park in June. If he improves at all off that conditioning, he will be salty here, IMO. My first Key Play of the Day. I will be the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under all the rest. If it comes off the turf? I may switch to the 4. Look at the board early and often.
6th: 7-10-11/5/1-8/4-6/(3)…This is a MCL event on the sod, and I will lock up and down with Chesandbalances (7), who comes from the barn of Chad Brown. This one ran for the first time on June 21. Ran a very credible race in the debut at a much higher level. Winner of that one came right back to snare the next race, too. Gets a top rider in the irons and looks the best with a clean trip. Irish-bred should not mind a little give to the ground here, either. Malibu Anthem (10) travels North from Kentucky and KEE. Gets the grass for the first time, and the barn wins with .14% of those. Dam of this one has no turf winners and looks more suited for the dirt. But…could help. Love that the rider sticks here for a horse that he has finished 2nd on twice. Kitten’s Romance (11) is from the Wesley Ward barn and probably merits a considerable look at the $40,000 price tag. Both from a betting and claiming perspective. This daughter of Kitten’s Joy ran a nice third on debut in June at Churchill Downs and the winner of that one came right back to win, too. Interesting angle here. If it goes to the MTO? Look seriously at Flashing Red (3). Serious credentials in this spot. I bet the 7-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will use the 3 if it comes off the sod. I will key the 7-11 over/under the 10-5 in two others, as well.
7th: 5-8/4-7/3…My Man Flintstone (5) figures prominently in this spot. The son of Into Mischief ran a nice 2nd last time out and now has 4 seconds and a win in 9 career starts. Gets a rider that has won with .20% for this barn in the last 5 outings together. Should be close throughout. Mister Bobby (8) was 2nd at Belmont Park last time out and has a win in only try over this main track. Second start off a layup and the barn hits with .14% of those. Trainer having a super meet here, too. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box those two solidly. I key the 5-8 over (only) the 4-7-3.
8th: 4-3-8/5-2-1/9-6/7-10…A grass race just for the NY-breds and I will go with Out of Trouble (4) if it stays on the sod. This one comes from the Brad Cox barn and will offer some value at the windows, IMO. Look at the race here last August. Right there the whole way. That was against NY-breds only, too. Like it. Short Pour (3) ran a solid second last time out at some high odds. In 3 starts here, this one has a 1-1-1 mark, too. Barn hits with .20% on the 2nd start off a layup. Class act training this one. Always root for this guy. Barrel of Destiny (8) has won 3 in a row and the barn picked her up just two starts back at Tampa. Moved into the NY-bred only category last time and ran off to an easy win. Rider switch? Interesting note. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed in two shorter versions.
9th: 5/6-9-1-4/8-7/3…John Morrissey Handicap…This is a 7-furlong event just for the NY-breds, and I will go with my second single and Key Play of the Day — Bankit (5). This 4YO son of Central Banker has run much of his career against tougher and open company. As a result, has a 3-7-3 mark in 20 lifetime efforts. In the 4 races I seen in the PPs against NY-breds only, though, he has a resume of 1-1-2. I think he runs a huge one here. Coming from the clouds. Gets his regular rider back up. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed.
10th: 10/(13)-(14)-(15)/3-4/2-7/6…Today’s finale is a wide open affair, to be held for the NY-breds only at the 5.5-furlong sprint distance over the grass. If it stays on the sod, and the AE Horses do not draw in, I will go with my final Key Play of the Day and my second Upset Special of the Day — Fluent in Sarcasm. This 3YO drops into the claiming ranks and the barn hits with .27% of those kind. Gets the meet’s top rider up. And, the barn is winning at a .25% rate. Aggressive spot here and I love the chance from the outside post. If the AE Horses draw in, though, you have to respect each of the 13,14,15. So? I bet the 10 across the board, either way. But I will box the 10-13-14-15 if the AE Horses get in. If not, I will key the 10 over/under all the others that do.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene