|Total Day Results||10 / 7-5-4|
|2021 Overall 616||616 / 218-226-249|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.39%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.50%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 391-616||63.47%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / KEE 100-141||70.92%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / KEE 62-141||43.97%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 18 6-5-1||33.33% Win / 66.67% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 98 / 42-23-7||42.86% Win / 73.47% ITM|
Oh, what a day to finish the meet at Keeneland. Oh, what a day.
Out of the 10 races, we picked 7 winners. Our top pick hit the board 8 out of the 10. We had 7 exactas, albeit on the low payout variety. And, we made money.
I can’t understand people when they say you can’t make money betting on the chalk. I really can’t. I have yet to see a winner pay back less than what I bet on it. Still waiting. And, we made money on Friday at Keeneland.
Here’s hoping we can keep that momentum together going into this, the greatest week of horse racing in the entire world — Kentucky Derby Week. OMG. I can’t wait.
Here’s a look at tonight’s card. First post at 6 p.m. ET:
1st: 4-1/3-5-2…Big Union (4) gets my nod in the lid-lifter tonight and to the greatest race meet the world has ever known. After all, it has the 147th Kentucky Derby imbedded in it. This 3Yo son of Union Rags cost $260,000 at the 2020 OBS-March Sale. Has earned $44,250 of it back so far for the connections. But? This one may be sitting on a big effort with the drop to the $40,000 claiming effort here. First time in the “for sale” rack. Barn has teamed up with the rider to go 2-1-0 in the last 5 and over the last 52? They have won at a .31% rate. May be tougher at this shorter distance and should love the company. Mahomes Money (1) goes to the gate under the tutelage of my great friend Dale Romans. If you didn’t join us last night at the LTS “Handicapping Event,” you missed it. The guy is simply a great friend and story-teller. Great trainer, too. This is a homebred for the Albaugh Family and comes in off three really good efforts in a row. Should be a very tough out here and the barn wins with .30% of those returning as a beaten favorite. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 4-1 over/under the 3-5-2 in two smaller units.
2nd: 3-4/1-2/6-5…Jail House Code (3) is another favorite, and should be in this grouping. This 3YO filly drops to the $10,000 tag here after racing and being claimed for $50,000 just two starts ago. Need a bigger truck? But this one should fit strongly here — surely? Gets a top rider up. Barn wins with .22% of those after the claim and with .20% of those dropping this much in class. Bang. Ready N Waiting (4) drops from $30,000 to the $10,000 level here, and this barn wins with 0% of the last 6 to drop this much at once. But this one is training very well and ran 3rd here against much tougher last November. Chance. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the top 2 over/under the rest in two smaller versions.
3rd: 5-1-2/3-4…Relentless Dancer (5) is my third favorite in a row to land on top. Hmmm. And, this one is a Louisiana-bred who will be facing open company. Double Hmmmm. But late last year, this one faced some serious competition in Stakes races at Keeneland, Pimlico, Charles Town and Indiana Grand. Training lights out for a top barn operation who wins with .27% of those dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time. I just have to use this one, for sure. Lonely Private (1) won the last time out and the barn wins with .40% of those trying to repeat in the claiming ranks. Gets a top KY rider for this assignment and this one has a win here, too. Looks like he’s ready. Lastchanceatglory (2) was claimed last time out and moves up in company. Will faced much tougher in this spot. Good right now, though, with three top finishes in the last 4. I bet the 5-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3-4 in two smaller units.
4th: 5-2-6/1-3/4…Sacred Storm (5) is even-money in the ML and doesn’t appear that she will offer any value in the betting column. But if you toss the last effort, which was against much, much tougher, she truly figures to be tough to beat. Hit the board in the previous 5. Hot rider who is 2-1-1 in the last 8 mounts and the barn wins with .19% when their steed is making the 2nd career start for this trainer. Figures. My Dark Secret (2) was claimed two starts ago, and this barn wins with .20% of those making the 2nd start for the trainer. Gets a new rider who should hustle this one along a bit more. In 6 starts here previously? Two seconds and a third. Underneath play? La Negra Nooche (6) could spice up the odds a bit with a good run here. This one returns as a beaten favorite, and the trainer wins with .21% of those. Sharp work on April 16. Could out-run the odds. I bet the 5-6 across the board, and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
5th: 2-6-1/7-4-5-3…Grand Design (2) goes for trainer Tom Amoss, who is one of the best conditioners around these parts. This one was claimed just two starts ago and the barn wins with .33% on the second try off the purchase. Gets a top rider up and this will be the 3rd start off a layup. Barn wins with .22% of those kind. One to beat. Parrot Head (6) will get all the support of the Jimmy Buffet fans in attendance tonight. This one drops to the $20,000 level and should be salty with this grouping. Working good. Don’t be surprised here. Launch Pad (1) has a shot in here, too. Trainer wins at an .18% rate on the dirt. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 i the exacta. I will key the 2-6 over (only) the 1-7-4-5-3 in a smaller unit.
6th: 6-1-3/2-5/4…Rye Humor (6) has raced here twice previously, and has a second and a third on the resume. Comes off a better-than-looks 4th at KEE last time out. Was wide wide and then criss-crossed in and out for much of the lane run. If he can get a better trip tonight? Look out. Trainer wins at a .17% rate in the 3rd start off a layup. Convection (1) broke the maiden last time out — on debut — by 5 at KEE. Now, will face winners for the first time. Why not? Barn wins with .17 % when moving up in this classification and with .28% in the claiming ranks. Extreme Force (3) has a chance here, too. Barn wins with .20% in the claiming ranks. I bet the 6-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over (only) the 2-5 in a smaller unit.
7th: 4-6-3/1/(11)-(12)/5-8/2-7-9…This marks the first grass race of the meet, and here’s hoping that the rains hold off today and allow the sod-stars to run. This event will be contested at the flat 1-mile distance, and I will saddle up with Fortuity (4). This 4YO son of The Factor ran very well to be 3rd at KEE in the last outing. That was the first start off a layup and he finished with vim and vigor. Could improve significantly off that effort. Gershwin (6) is my first “Longshot Special of the Night.” This 3YO son of Distorted Humor was nominated to the Triple Crown at some time in his life. Broke the maiden impressively in the mud on Feb. 6. Had a horrific trip last time out and still was 3rd. Look for much better here. Tulfarris (3) will make the 3rd start in this country after being shipped over from the British Isles. The blinkers come off and this barn wins with .20% of those. Wins with .20% in the third start off a layup too. Will come late. Look for an effort tonight. I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two smaller units.
8th: 5-8/4-6-3…This is a MSW event for the 3YO fillies that will be contested at the KY Derby distance of 11/4 miles. Wow. I will give the edge to Queen Bourbon (5), who will be making the 3rd start for trainer Ian Wilkes. This is about the time that this barn loves to pop them and this one has run well in both of the area career efforts. Connections paid $285,000 for this daughter of Empire Maker at the 2019 KEE September Sales. Looks poised for a big effort here. D’oro Forever (8) is a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro and out of the grand KY Oaks winner Lemons Forever, who has thrown 4 winners from 7 foals. This one should let her breeding take over tonight and with Luis Saez in the saddle? Look out. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key these 2 over (only) the 4-6-3 in a smaller version.
9th: 4-3-2/7-8-1-(11)/6-5/9-10…William Walker Stakes…Let’s hope this race stays on the sod. If it does? It could be a doozy. I love this one as a betting race. My handicapping numbers give the edge to the top 3 numbers — led by Kasim (4). This one ran a huge one at Gulfstream Park in the last effort and was closing very fast on the leaders. Extra distance should help this one immensely tonight. Big shot. Field Day (3) exits the same race and was coming stride for stride with our top pick. If you like our #1, you have to like this one, too. Next? Is Next (2). This one comes from the barn of Wesley Ward, who ran off with the Trainer’s title at KEE, which finished up Friday. This one has been a handful in every start, except for the run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to end the 2020 campaign. Look for more speed here tonight. But? I am going to bet my second “Longshot Special of the Day:” — Bodenheimer (7). This 3YO Washington-bred has not finished the job in the last two out, but should be ready for this effort tonight. Won the Indian Summer Stakes at KEE last October. Has class. Has stalking speed. And, has a chance at some odds here. I’m in. I bet the 7-4 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 7-4 over/under the 3-2-8-1-11 in two smaller units.
10th: 2-8/5-7-1/9-6/3-4…Lady Rocket (2) goes for the barn of Brad Cox, who normally owns these here parts with authority. This 4YO filly comes in off a really good effort to be 3rd last time out. That was off a layup and was with blinkers for the first time. Look for a lot more with an great rider choice in the irons. Love this one tonight. If you are still awake. Bayerness (8) has not run since finishing 7th in the G1 KY Oaks here last September. Been training very well and ran super off the bench last year. Look for this one to be primed tonight. Distance could be a bit short for her, and it may be a prep for more important stuff later. But her talent may be good enough to overcome that, too. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-8 in the exacta. I will key the 2-8 over/under the 5-7-1-9-6 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene