|Day Results||8 / 3-3-3|
|2021 Overall 151||151 / 49-55-59|
|Win % of Top Pick||32.45%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.98%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 92-151||60.93%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 69-116||59.48%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 37-116||31.90%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 14 / 8-2-0||57.14% Win / 71.43% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 23 / 14-3-0||60.87% Win / 73.91% ITM|
Well, well, well.
We are seeing the ball good right now. We had 4 winners in the Pick 5 and in the “other” race? We ran 2nd. Still, the payout for the 4 winners was a handsome $88 and recovered most of our initial investment of $148.
We had 3 winners overall on the night. We had exactas that paid $15.80, $21.60, $19.20, $146.70, $21.50 and $43.10 for each $1 played. Nice.
And, we are rolling into the weekend with some positive vibes.
Let’s hope to get it going tonight. Here’s our looks:
1st: 9-1-5/10-2/8-3/4-6-7…Lucky as a Seven (9) is a 3YO gelded son of Tale of the Cat and hails from the barn of trainer Wesley Ward — who just so happens to be the leading trainer here this meet with 12 wins in 42 starts. Thus, a .29% win percentage. This guy has not been out since June of last year. But ran a very nice 2nd on debut at Gulfstream Park last May. Has been working steadily for the return and goes back into the MCL ranks. First time Lasix. First time gelding. First time winner? Bourre’ Trick (1) is another from the barn of Ward. This one ran 9th and was beaten plenty in the last try at KY Downs last September. Before that, though, ran two solid, yet tiring races at GP. Trainer has won 5 of the last 13 and this will will get Lasix on and blinkers off. Barn wins with .16% when getting treated with the anti-bleeder medication for the first time, and with .21% when the shades come off. Nice rider selected for this one. Lavender Earl (5) ran a very nice 2nd here on Jan. 9, and it is especially nice considering that this highly-gifted trainer does not get them truly cranked for the first out. If this son of More Than Ready improves at all? Look out. Will be coming late. I bet the top two numbers across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 10-2 in two smaller versions. In the Pick 5: 9-1-5-10-2/12-10-6-11-1/2-11-1/8-1-5/12…2nd Ticket: 9-1-5/12-10-6/2-11-1-9-7-4/8-1-5/12…3rd Ticket: 9-1-5/12-10-6/2-11/8-1-5/12-4-3…
2nd: 12-10-6/11-1/4-7/9-3-2…Valley Girl (12) is a nice 6-1 in the Brisnet.com ML, and I would love to see those kinds of odds blinking at PT tonight. This 5YO Florida-bred mare has not started since last November at Woodbine and will be making the first start for a new barn operator here. Trainers wins with .13% of those making the barn debut. Came with a late rush in the last effort. Better trip may have made the difference in that one. Has been training solidly and steadily. Looks ready. I like. Wildwood Maggie (10) is another longshot possible here. This one ran 2nd at Hawthorne last time out in December and now returns to the AW for the first time since September, when she ran at Arlington Park. In the lone AW trip so far? This one came with a late rush to go from last to first at the wire. Trainer has won with 1 of 3 here. Chance at a price. Fifthatnarraganset (6) goes for a barn connection that I know little about. But in 7 starts here this meet, they have produced 2 seconds. This one ran 6th here on Dec. 5. But that was against much, much tougher. In 5 previous tries over the AW, has a win and two thirds. Barn wins with .15% when dropping this much in class, too. I bet the 12-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 11-1 in two smaller units.
3rd: 2-11/1-9-7-4/3-10/6-8-5…Orb of the Boro (2) drops all the way from the $30,000 MCL ranks to half that price tag tonight, and the barn wins with .11% when plunging this much at once. Ran very well in the last effort until the end. Tired late. Two races back, this one ran a huge 2nd. Gets a new rider tonight, and this jockey has won with 1 of 2 for this barn in the last 60 days. In 8 career starts, has 2 seconds and 2 thirds. Could be salty at this new level. Pettinari (11) is a first-time starter from the barn of Wesley Ward, who wins with .29% in the last 353 runners to make the debut. Barn wins with .32% over an AW surface and with .29% of those debuting in the MCL ranks. Works good enough to encourage action. I bet the 2-11 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 2-11 over/under the 1-9-7-4-3-10 in two smaller units.
4th: 8-1-5/6-9-2-3/10-7-11…Para Vivir (8) goes for a trainer that does not get the credit or respect that he deserves and has earned. Has started only two horses here this meet. Has been third both times. Only ships here when he thinks he has a real chance. This one does. Ran 3rd here on Jan. 21. Steady all the way around, and now drops into the bargain bin. In 7 tries over the AW, this one has a 2-2-1 mark. Like the chance. Ready to Charm (1) won here last time out on Jan. 15. Took command soon after the start and ran off to an easy win. Barn wins with .50% of those trying to repeat in the claiming ranks, and with .14% overall when first last time out. Should be the one to catch. Boots n’ Battle (5) could spice up the odds rack a bit here. Ran a closing 3rd last time out and had a tough trip. Gets a new rider tonight, and one that has done well in his time at TP. In 3 previous trips over the AW, this one has 2 thirds. Look for more out of this one tonight. Late arrival. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 8-1 over/under the 5-6-9-2-3-10 in two smaller units.
5th: 12/4-3-9-1-2/6-10/8-11/7-(13)…The first “Key Play of the Night” comes in with Midway Mischief (12). This high-priced son of Into Mischief cost $300,000 at the Fasig-Tipton October Yearling Sale in 2019. Has run once since. That was here on Dec. 31 for trainer Mark Casse, who is winning at a nice .22% clip this meet. Ran a very strong 2nd in that one and was very “green” in the stretch. If he can run a bit more professional in this try? Look out. Could be long gone with the first time addition of Lasix. I bet the 12 to win/place/show and then key the 12 over/under all the numbers listed in the exacta. I use more with the 4-3-9-1-12 than the rest.
6th: 1-1A-8/3-7-11-6/5-10-4…I’ll go with the Ward entry here. Since the same rider has been named on each, one is likely to be scratched. But, for me, I will saddle up with either one of the two in this spot. Both are going to be first time starters. Both are by Kitten’s Joy. Both are owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey. And, both have been training well enough to steal this show. I’m in. Miss Bond (8) is a first-timer from the barn of Timothy Hamm, whose horses have run better than the .10% win percentage. In addition to the 2 wins, Hamm has saddled 4 runner-ups and 3 thirds in 21 starts. Barn wins with .16% when debuting in the MCL ranks. Works are spot on. Dam of this one has 4 winners from 4 starters. Adds up to a contender. I bet the 1-1A-8 across the board and then box those in the exacta. I will key the entry-8 over/under the 3-7-11-6-5 in two smaller units.
7th: 2-1-6/8/10-5-3-4/7-9…Kynance (2) gets the slight nod in the featured event. This 6YO mare has raced here twice before, with a win and a second. Won here last time out on Jan. 1. Has speed to negotiate a very nice trip and the barn wins with .26% when returning to the gate with a horse that won the last time out. In 10 tries over the AW? Has a 3-4-1 mark. Good enough for me. Coldwater (1) ran a nice 2nd to our top pick last time out. Was beaten less than a length in that one. Came late, but try as she might, she was never able to head the top pick. Race before, she ran off to an impressive win against lighter company. Will be trying late. Ria Munk (6) returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .21% of those. Has run 2 very nice 2nds here in a row. And, the rider has been red hot all meet long. Would not be a shock here. At all. Must use, for me. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 1-8-10-5-3-4-7-9 in two smaller units.
8th: 10/2-6-11/4-7-8-5/3-(14)-1…I will go with my second “Key Play of the Night” in the finale. No Nay Now (10) ran a huge 2nd last time out when he was claimed by the new barn operation. Lost by a closing neck in that one. Bumps up a class rung here, but that should not be an issue. Barn wins with .13% of those making the first start after a claim purchase, and with .14% of those making the 3rd start off a layup. Gets a new rider, who is a bit questionable, to be honest. But this one should be able to launch from either the front; from a stalking spot; for from the back. Versatile sort that looks to find the winner’s circle here. I bet the 10 to win/place/show and then key the 10 over/under all the numbers listed. More with the 2-6-11-4-7 than the rest.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene