|Day Results||8 / 2-5-3|
|2021 Overall 65||65 / 20-22-25|
|Win % of Top Pick||30.77%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||34.36%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 38-65||58.46%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 33-56||58.93%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 16-56||28.57%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 9 / 5-1-0||55.55% Win / 66.67% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 12 / 7-1-0||58.33% Win / 66.67% ITM|
We returned to the “new and improved” Turfway Park on Thursday night and we managed a couple of winners out of the 8 races. Not much to cheer about there.
But we did manage to hit for exactas that returned $114.10, $15.00, $26.80, $4.70 and $8.60 for each $1 played.
Also, our lone “Key Play of the Night” returned home a winner in the finale.
And, our second “Longshot Play of the Night” nearly won the 5th, as well, and returned $12.40 across the board for finishing second.
Enough to cash a few positive tickets and refill the cash drawer a bit.
Not bad for a guy who has been on two different hospital beds this week, and handicapping contrary to some of my doctor’s orders. (We hope to be better soon, ya’ll. Got the antibodies infusion yesterday. This COVID is the real kick-butt deal. Trust me. My advice? Don’t get it. It sucks.)
Big carryover in the Pick 5 tonight. Better jump in. Can’t win it, unless you are in it.
Here’s our picks:
1st: 6-4-10/5-7/8-2/3-1A…Can’t Touch Me (6) has not raced since mid-November when facing tougher up at Indy Grand. Ships in for a trainer that knows how to win, and one that can get them ready off the bench, too. Barn wins with .23% of those coming back from this type of a layup. Versatile sort gets a rider who has won for this barn operation this meet, too. Drama Run (4) ran 2nd here at this same level last time out on Dec. 10. In 20 races over the AW surface, this one has a 4-4-4 mark. Only won 1-of-11 in 2020. Hmmmm. Que Sera Sear (10) drops in class for this event. Could improve with the shorter distance, too. This one likes to flash the speed early and often and may get a jump from the far outside. Chance. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 5-7 in two smaller units, and then key the 6 over/under all the numbers listed in two more smaller units.
2nd: 2-6-12/7/8-1-(14)/10-11/4-3…Goodtime Artie (2) will get the Lasix for the first time tonight, and that might boost the chances of this 3YO colt who just ran 2nd here on Dec. 18 for the $10,000 tag. Barn wins with .22% when getting the anti-bleeder medication for the first time and with .23% of those that return to the starter as a beaten favorite. Work here on Jan. 9 was good enough. Quantum Velocity (6) drops in class for the barn of Mark Casse, who is winning at a .14% clip here with the Northern Division. Work on Jan. 9 was good, and the rider is having a very solid meet with .21% winners out of 68 mounts. This barn wins with .24% of those that come back as a beaten favorite, too. May like the cut-back in distance tonight. Cowboy Hippie (12) drops in class and picks up the Lasix for the first time, too. Will route for the first time, and the barn wins with only .03% of those. Hmmmm. To Kalon (7) is a first time starter from the barn of Jonathan Thomas and gets a top rider for the billing. Must use for me, and my first “Longshot Special of the Night.” I look at this: I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box the 2-7 solidly in one exacta. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 6-12 in smaller versions. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 6-12-8-1-10-11-4-3 in two smaller units, too.
3rd: 2/8-9/7-10/5/4-3…The first “Key Play of the Night” comes here with Love Your Buttons (2). This 7YO horse comes from a barn operation that is winning at a .20% clip here this meet, and picks up the best rider on the grounds. Work here on Jan. 9 was good enough and the win at Arlington Park in September was over an AW surface, too. In 3 starts over the AW, this one has a win and two seconds. Coming off a layup, but looks ready for this chore. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then key the 2 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in the exactas. More with the 8-9-7-10 than the rest.
4th: 7-3-(13)/12-4-8/(14)-10-1-9…Twenty Carat (7) is a homebred daughter of Into Mischief and will be making the career debut tonight for trainer Wesley Ward. Barn wins with .30% on the first ask, and the barn wins with .32% over the AW, too. This meet? The barn is 7-3-2 in 26 mounts, for a win mark of .27%. Gets the meet’s top rider in the irons and the work on Jan. 1 indicates this one is ready. Look out. Miss Malibu (3) is another daughter of Into Mischief, and one left behind when trainer broke for the winter home base in New Orleans. Ran a good 4th here on Dec. 9. Had some traffic issues in that one. Gets Lasix for the first time tonight. Needs to improve. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed. More with the 3-13-12-4-8-14.
5th: 2-5-3/6-12/4-7-(13)/1-9-8…Forego Stakes…Bango (2) won a big race at this venue last Spring, capturing the Animal Kingdom Stakes here on Jeff Ruby Steaks Day. Circled the field impressively that day with a serious kick in his late run. Came back to win a couple of very nice allowance races at Churchill Downs in the Fall. This one has speed and has the ability to throttle it back a bit and use when wanted and necessary, too. Nice horse. Lookin To Strike (5) ran 4th in a recent turf Stakes at the Fair Grounds. Lost by less than 3 in that one, though and had to come from way back in the sprint. Will stretch out here. Over bet? I think so. Guildsman (3) ran in the same turf Stakes as the second pick. Never in contention in that one. In only previous run over an AW track, though, this one was impressive in winning at Stakes event at Presque Isle. I like this one here at some nice odds. “Longshot Special.” I bet the 2-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-3 over/under the 5-6-12-4-7-13-1 in two smaller versions.
6th: 2-8/4-5-3/1-6/7…Miss Eau de Vie (2) ran 2nd here in her AW debut on Dec. 11. Had all kinds of issues in that attempt. Bobbled at the start. Went wide at the top of the stretch. Compromised from get to go. Should be better here tonight in a classy allowance-optional claimer. Will get the Lasix for the first time and this one broke the maiden at KEE in October. Ran up against the likes of Aunt Pearl in a Churchill Downs turf event, too. Rider has gone 5-0-2 in the last 14 mounts and should be a tough out tonight with a cleaner trip. Pliantlea (8) goes for a trainer who has won 2 of 3 starts this meet. Broke the maiden at Presque Isle in Oct. over the AW surface. Came back here in December and ran good, if not spectacular. Now, will get the Lasix for the fist time. Barn wins with .13% off those kind and with .16% of those that will make the 2nd start off a layup. Gets a tp rider who has won half of his 4 mounts for this trainer. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-8 in one exacta. I will key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units, too.
7th: 4-5/3-6-11/9-1-2/7-8…Leeway (4) had been wintering down at Payson Park in South Florida until she got the rudest of wake up calls and a van ride to Turfway Park. She will make the first start since last October and first ever for new trainer Ben Colebrook. Trainer is having an ice-cold winter, as well, going 0-for-16 to start the meet. Does have 3 seconds and 4 thirds, though. This one could snap the streak tonight. Got a work in over the track and gets a top rider here for the assignment. If she likes the AW? Look out. Joy of Treasure (5) ran 7th here last time out, but the winner of that one came right back to win a very nice allowance event at TP on Thursday night. Impressive. This one had a rail trip in that race, and the inside is NOT where you want to be. Will be coming late and if the rider can negotiate a better trip? Not a surprise here. I bet the 4-5 across the board and then box the top 2 numbers in the exacta. I will key the 4-5 over/under the rest of the numbers listed — with more on the 3-6-11-9 than the rest.
8th: 10/2-4-9/7-1-3-5…No Nay Now (10) drops to the bargain bin for the fist time ever, and should find this company a tad easier than what he has been facing in the past. Barn wins with .37% when dropping this much in class, and with .28% of those returning as a beaten favorite. This is the 2nd start off the layup, too, and the barn wins with .21% of those. Gets a rider who has won with .28% of the last 25 mounts for this barn, as well. My last “Key Play of the Night.” I bet the 10 to win/place/show and then key the 10 over/under the rest of the numbers listed. More with the 2-4-9 than the rest.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene