|Day Results||8 / 3-5-1|
|2020 Overall 1748||1748 / 623-602-765|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.64%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.95%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –1,133-1,748||64.82%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP 51-82||62.20%|
|Top Selections Win / TP 32-82||39.02%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 15-7-0-1||46.67% Win / 53.33% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 246-91-48-33||36.99% Win / 69.92% ITM|
Another solid night at the “new and improved” Turfway Park, domiciled in beautiful Florence, Y’All.
Had 3 winners on the 8-race card, and we cashed tickets on 7 of the 8 races with our top selections. Of the three Key Plays of the Day, we hit on two. And, we scored exactas that returned $14.80, $17.10, $15.80, $11.30, and $6.70 for each $1 played.
We are gearing up for a nice Saturday night. Need some Christmas cash. After it.
Here’s our looks:
1st: 4-9-11/2-5/8-7-3…Martial Eagle (4) drops to the lowest price tag in his career, and the son of Curlin does have 2 wins and 3 thirds in 12 starts this year. Has been coming from well-back in the last few races, but flashed some speed when he raced at Churchill Downs in September. I see a stalking trip here tonight and a solid, if not spectacular effort. Solid may be good enough with this bunch. Speed Racer (9) drops from the $12,500 tag and the turf and moves to the $7,500 level and the AW. Returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .32% of those out of the last 59 to try. Another later mover, and will need to find room and luck in the lane. Rider is 0-0-1 in 15 mounts this meet. Hmmm. Drink (11) won her on Dec. 2 in the last trip. Moves up to face tougher this time, after losing the “2-lifetime” condition. Another later runner and will get a rider who is starting to heat up again. Threat. I bet the 4-11 across the board and then box the 4-9-11. I will key the 4-11 over/under the 9-2-5-8-7-3 in two smaller units.
2nd: 8-5-1/6-(14)/2-10/9-12/3-7…A wide open affair in the second tilt of the night. I could use any of the top 7 numbers in the horizontals. But for this endeavor, I will give the slight edge to Bloody Mary Mornin (8). This 5YO mare won the last time out at Indy Grand and did it against open company and did it for fun. In 3 turf runs, has 2 wins and a third. Now, moves to the AW for the first time. Barn wins with .26% when going for the repeat. Looks solid here. Seductive (5) won here for fun last time out, too. Nearly went ahead by 6 at the wire. Moves up in class for this one and the barn wins with only .07% on back-to-back circle appearances after the race. Has won two of the last 3 and does have a 2-3-0 mark in 9 races over the AW. Experience edge there. Appealing Way (1) is my first Longshot Special of the Night. Is 8-1 in the ML and could slide North from there. Ran OK for awhile last time out and then spit the bit. Has a second in three tries here and the race back at KY Downs in September is really good enough for this group. Chance. I bet the 8-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top three over the 6-14 in two smaller units. I may stretch the 8-1 over/under the 2-10, as well.
3rd: 3/5-6-9-(13)/7-4/10-(14)-2-12…My first Key Play of the Day just may become another Longshot Special, too. Mo Zone (3) is 9-2 in the ML odds posted by Brisnet.com, but I think this 5YO gelded son of Uncle Mo may just be a handful at the wire of this event. Barn wins with .22% in the third start off the layup, an d with .33% when dropping in class off a win. Works here are solid enough and the rider has won with .20% of the last 5 mounts for this barn. If he can duplicate the last effort? Game over. Krewe Chief (5) hails from the barn of Mike Maker, who is off to a tepid start at the “new and improved” Turfway Park. But the trainer does win with .22% of the last 489 starts over an AW surface and drops in class for this one, too. Has a win in this city, and hooks a top rider for this event. Big shot, too. Federal Law (6) comes in from Woodbine and trainer Mark Casse, who is winning at a .25% clip here this met. Has been 2nd in the last two against tougher. Chance. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will hook another 3-5 exacta box rather sternly I will key the 3-5 over/under the 6-9-13-7-4 in two smaller units.
4th: 7/6-9-12-1-11/10-5/4-8/2-3…My second Key Play of the Day comes here with Steve Asmussen and his 2YO colt Five Dreams (7). This one ran 2nd by a neck last time out at Churchill Downs on Nov. 19. Must missed in that one at the wire. Ran up against the likes of Joe Frazier the time before, and that was a knock-out punch. (Sorry. Couldn’t help it.) Should be able to carve out a nice stalking spot in this one. Rider has won with .25% of the last 8 mounts for this barn operation. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under the 6-9-12-1-11 in a rather strong move. I will key the 7 over/under the rest in a softer unit.
5th: 11-(14)/1-5-12-7-10/4-6-3/(13)-2-9…Could it be three Key Plays of the Day in a row? Could be. Should be. Will be. Scabbard (11) has had a rough 2020, like most of us. the 3YO gelded son of More Than Ready finished 2019 in the BC Juvenile, running 4th. Before that? Ran 2nd to Dennis’ Moment in the G3 Iroquois. This year, though, he has gone 0-0-0 in five starts. Granted, the first two were against Graded Stakes company and on the road to the ill-fated KY Derby. Last two came over the turf. No better. Now, he will get the AW for the first time. If the last two works up at the “new and improved” Turfway Park are any indication? He may just love it. I’m in. One more time. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then key the 11 over/under the 14-1-5-12-7-10. I will key the 11 over/under the 4-6-3-13-2 in two smaller units.
6th: 2-7-6/3-11/5-10/1-4-8…Speightstown Again (7) gets my nod in a very well-balanced MSW event that will be contested at the distance of a flat mile. This 3YO son of Speightstown cost a nifty $675,000 at the 2018 KEE September Yearling Sale. Has made less than $40,000 to date, but this one looks like he may have found the right company tonight. First try over the AW could be the track, too. Gets a ride winning at a .25% clip this meet. Love the 6-1 ML odds. Are you kidding me? Love to get 6-1 here. Love it. Nineeleventurbo (7) comes from the barn of Mike Maker, who is off to a slow start this Holiday Meet. This one comes off a 3rd over the grass at CD on Sept. 18. Faced a tough one in there, who came right back to win the next outing. This one could be a tough one tonight, with a moderate pace factor and the cut back in distance. Love the last work. Looks poised and ready. One to beat. Copper King (6) has gone 0-for-14, but does have 5 seconds and 5 thirds. Hard to dismiss totally. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will also key the top 3 over/under the 3-11 in two smaller units.
7th: 2-6/9-10/1-8-3/4-5…When was the last time you witnessed a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner running at Turfway Park. Was undefeated as a 2YO in 2019. Was more than impressive in each. Has raced only once this year, and that was back in May. Didn’t fire too much in that one at CD. Off since. Has been working very well for the return, and the blinkers come off for a trainer that wins with .21% of those kind. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the trainer hits with .28% of those. Is winning at a .29% clip this meet. Adds up to a must-see-TV for me. I bet the 2 to win/place and then box solidly with the 6. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 9-10 in a rather stern unit, as well. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 1-8-3-4-5 in two smaller units.
8th: 1/6-2-3/(14)-8-10…Ok…just writing here. If Oak Room (1) can’t dust this group over the AW surface tonight? May be time for another career. The 3YO son of Into Mischief drops all the way from a $50,000 claimer at Churchill Downs to the $7,500 level tonight. And, this is not a normal $7,500 either. It may be the weakest group I’ve ever seen at this level, to boot. So? I’m in on Oak Room. Have to be. I bet the 1 to win/place and then key the 1 over/under the “all button.”
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene