|Day Results||8 / 2-1-3|
|2021 Overall 159||159 / 51-56-62|
|Win % of Top Pick||32.08%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.43%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 98-159||61.64%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 75-124||60.48%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 39-124||31.45%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 16 / 8-2-1||50.00% Win / 68.75% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 25 / 14-3-1||56.00% Win / 72.00% ITM|
A rather pedestrian night at the “new and improved” Turfway Park on Friday night. Managed to scratch out a couple of winners. Managed to scratch out 5 exactas out of the 8 races carded — paying $18.40, $18.30, $21.70, $15.40, $25.30 for each $1 played.
I missed on both of my “Key Plays of the Night,” though. Just a third in two attempts.
And, I missed out on the Pick 5, too. After winning the first two legs, I ran second in the next two. Ouch.
So, we are make for atonement on this Saturday. Here’s our looks:
1st: 4-8-5/6-7-1/3-2…Discreet Kitty (4) gets the nod in the lid-lifter tonight. This 4YO daughter of Discreet Cat goes for a trainer who is 0-for-10 this meet. Does have 3 seconds on the tab, though. This one, in fact, ran 2nd here on Jan. 9. Lost that one by a length to Gamblin Train, who was a bullet train in the lane that night. Rider is a mystery to me this meet. Winning at only a .13% rate, and he normally does very well on this circuit. And, he’s been getting some live mounts, too. Hmmm. Temptation Eyes (8) is the first “Longshot Special of the Night.” This one is posted at 10-1 in the Brisnet.com ML, and I would love to tap into those kind of numbers early in the card. Trainer wins with .23% when they are making the 2nd career start for the barn. Made a nice move and then backed up late in the last outing. Could expect that, though, as it was the first race in three months. Should be better on the 2nd start off the layup and the barn wins with .12% of those. Chance. Etelka (5) won the last time out here on Jan. 6. Loses that condition and will face tougher here in this spot. Rider moves off this winner and takes the mount on our “Longshot” play. Interesting. I bet the 4-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-8 over/under the 5-6-7-1-3-2 in two smaller units. In the Pick 5: 4-8-5-6-7-1/9-3-11-10-7-8/8/2-10-12-7-8-9/8-7-(14). If you want to go lighter, how about a ticket that includes: 4-8-5-6-7/9-3-11-10/8/2-10-12-7-8/8-7-(14).
2nd: 9-3/11-10/7-8/2-4/1-6…The Humongous One (9) returns to the gate for the third start here since Dec. 30. Had back-to-back wins over this surface in December. Last two were a bit more stale. But this 4YO Florida-bred has some late kick to his game and gets a new rider tonight to try the reins. In 9 starts over the AW to date, this one has a record of 2-4-2. Should be a contender here. Uncle Gregory (3) was claimed two starts back and now will go for a barn operator that wins with .22% on the 2nd start off the claim purchase. Gets back to a class level that he should prefer and the barn wins with .31% when making this kind of a plunge. New rider takes over. Been awhile since this one was close at the wire. But will face easier tonight. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then box the 9-3 in one exacta. I will key the 9-3 over/under the 11-10-7-8-2-4 in two smaller units.
3rd: 8/6-7-12-11/5-(14)/4-3/2-10…The first “Key Play of the Night” comes here with No Salt (8). This is a 4YO son of Tonalist and comes from the highly-acclaimed barn of trainer Wesley Ward, who is winning at a .31% clip here this meet with 45 starters. This one drops two class rungs in the claiming games and finds the basement for the first time. Barn wins with a whopping .40% when he drops this much at once. Has teamed up with this rider to go 2-0-0 in the last 4 outs. Has not started since Dec. 10 at Aqueduct, but the work here on Jan. 26 was spot on. Spot. On. My solid pick. I bet the 8 across the board and then key the 8 over/under the numbers listed. I go more with the 6-7-12-11-5.
4th: 2-10-12/(2B)-7-8/9-4-(1A)/5-3/1-11-6…Long on Luck (2) is my second “Longshot Special of the Night.” This one is posted at 6-1 in the Brisnet.com ML, and I would like to have that number at PT. Has not raced since July 24 at Ellis Park Won back to back in the heat of the summer, but has not been seen since. Now, this one plummets to the bottom for the new trainer that took over the barn of Angel Montano. Works are OK over this track. Gets a veteran rider who is doing well here, too. Won at Ellis showing speed and then won right back coming from off the pace. Versatile sort with some talent. Icy Street (10) won here two starts back in December. Returned to face tougher types last time out and was right there until tiring late. Barn wins with .22% over the AW, and that is with a sample size of 59. This one has 2 wins in 6 AW starts. Figures. Ransack (12) could be another handy price. This one is 10-1 in the ML. Drops out of the $18,000 ranks all the way to the bargain bin. Figures off a dead-last loss by 44 lengths. But look at the r4ace two back at Churchill Downs against much tougher. If he can find that form? Watch out. I’m willing to give it a shot. I bet the 2-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-10 over/under the 12-2B-7-8-9-4-1A-5-3 in two smaller units.
5th: 8-7-(14)/12-10/9-(13)-5/11-4-2-1/3-6…Land Battle (8) returns off a win here on Jan. 21. Was sharp in that one and on the muscle early and late. In 10 tries at this venue, this one has a mark of 4-2-1. Barn wins with .26% when they won the last race, too. With claimer repeaters? Win percentage is .31%. Looks primed. Moonoverseba (7) comes from the barn of Eddie Kenneally, who wins with .26% of those that run in the claiming ranks. This one drops considerably in this spot and the work session here on Jan. 27 was spot on. Rider is a whopping 0-for-13 for this barn this meet, though. Hmmm. I’m Corfu (14) won last time out in Chicago by nearly 7 lengths. In 17 previous tries over an AW track, this one has 3 wins and 3 seconds, too. Barn wins with .50% of those trying to repeat in the claiming ranks and with .41% that won the last race, overall. Gets a top rider for the assignment. Figures if he can draw in from the AE List. Must use, for me. I bet the 8-14 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 8-14 over/under the 7-12-10-9-13-5-11 in two smaller units.
6th: 1/7-3-5/4-6-8/10-9-11/12…The second “Key Play of the Night” comes here with the railbird — Cee R Bee (1). This one has hit the board in each of the last 5 outings and has been closing at the wire in nearly all of them. In 4 runs over an AW track, this one has a 1-1-1 resume, and the rider has won with .18% of the last 17 mounts for the barn. Works are good. Can he get over the hump. Rider and trainer have gone 2-1-1 in the last 8 tries. I’m in. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed in the exacta. I go more with the 7-3-5-4-6-8.
7th: 4-1-12/11-2-6-8/10-7/9-5-3-(13)…Scabbard (4) has not won a race since 2019, and that was the MSW event at Churchill Downs and right before he was 2nd in the G2 Saratoga Special and the G3 Iroquois Stakes. Ran 4th to Storm the Court that year in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. But this one had a horrid 2020. Last time out, in mid-December, though, this one made his AW debut here. Showed a lot more interest than the previous 5 races. Made a nice run before tiring in the stretch. If he can move forward off that one? May be time to revisit the circle. Has the breeding to just love this surface. I’m in. Candy Store (1) comes from the barn of the highly successful trainer Larry Rivelli, who is winning at a .26% rate here this meet. This one won last time out at Hawthorne by nearly 5. Makes the first start for the new barn operation, and they hit with .32% with debut runners. Will be tracking them late. In 2 previous tries over AW? Has a win and a third. Burning Bright (12) goes for the team of trainer Jonathan Thomas and red-hot rider Chris Landeros. In 7 mounts together this meet? They have won with .86% of the runners. That’s not a typo. That’s .86%. Look out here. I bet the 4-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4-12 over/under the 1-11-2-6-8-10-7 in two smaller units.
8th: 12/3-8/4-11/7-2/(14)-1…The finale of the night brings us our third and final “Key Play of the Night,” too. We will saddle up with trainer Mike Maker and his 3YO filly Tale of the Kitten (12). This one drops down two runs on the claiming ladder, and the barn hits with .23% of those making this kind of a plunge. Second route race, too, and the barn wins with .20% of those. Gets the Lasix for the 2nd time, and the barn wins with .27% of those. Ran very well here on Jan. 16. Just missed. Gets a nice rider to take the reins here. Big, big shot. I play the 12 to win/place/show and then key the 12 over/under all the numbers listed in the exacta. I will focus more $ on the 3-8,4-11-7-2.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene