|Total Day Results||8/ 5-2-5|
|2021 Overall 1,884||1884 / 705-662-885|
|Win % of Top Pick||37.42%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||39.84%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,264-1,884||67.09%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 52-96||54.17%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 34-96||35.42%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 13 / 5-3-2||38.46% Win / 76.92% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 286/ 129-64-26||45.10% Win / 76.57% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @ TP 12 / 0-1-2||00.00% Win / 25.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0||19.095% Win / 23.81% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0||00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2||10.53% Win / 26.20% ITM|
|“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0||50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM|
|“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1||50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM|
We finally had the night at Turfway Park that we have been looking for since the Holiday Meet began the first nights of December. We finally had the night we have been searching so intently. We finally had a night.
We hit 5 of the 8 races on the card.
We hit exactas that returned the likes of $42.60, $15.30, $23.70, $24.70 and a whopping $84.90 for each $1 played correctly.
And, we hit the Pick 5 that returned a very nice payment of over $1,000 for our simple $90 wager.
The only downsides were our two “Key Plays of the Day,” who managed only 1 third placing between the two of them.
Yet…let’s not dwell on the negative.
Let’s do dwell on the positive — which was reassuring, especially considering that we have spent the past few days tinkering with our recipe on how to pick a few winners over this Tapeta surface.
Maybe…just maybe…we have now found something that may work.
We return to the “New & Improved” Turfway Park on Sunday afternoon.
Here’s our looks for that card — after a day of joy and celebration on Christmas.
1st: 3-7/4-6/2-1A-5/1…Encrypted (3) gets the call in the ole’ lid-lifter on this Sunday afternoon. The 6YO gelding returns as a beaten favorite for a ban that wins with .19% of the last 31 of those types. And, this one does have 5 wins in 11 tries over the AW surfaces. Will make the debut here on this AW in this spot, but should adapt and the rider is one of the best taking mounts for this venue. At this distance, this one has a win in two previous tries, too. My pick. Uncle Earl (7) has raced 11 times over the AW surfaces, too, and this one has 3 wins and 4 seconds to show for the efforts. Key is? This one has raced here 8 times and has a 2-3-0 record on the resume. Gets a clever rider in the irons and the barn can win off the bench — since he has been away since August. Works are improving. May be the one to catch here. I bet the 3-7 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 3-7 over/under the 4-6-2-1-5 in two smaller units.
2nd: 5-9-3/7-11-(14)-12/8-4/6-2-(13)…Super Ready (5) will drop to the bargain bin for the first time in her career. The 3YO Super Saver filly nearly won for $20,000 at KEE just three starts ago in October. Has not been close in the last two, but this barn does win with .23% when dropping this much at one time. The “Place” horse two races ago came back to win the next out, too. Speed here. Speed will go here. Paulas Game (9) gets the meet’s top rider in the irons for there third start in a row and this one has been closing in each of those. If she can get off to a little better start, it may improve her chances immensely. Rider has gone 6-2-4 ion the last 23 outs. Sharp work for this filly on Dec. 16. Chance. Chipshire (3) ships in for this tilt and the barn is looking for the first win of the meet. Has gone 0-for-7 so far. Picks up a rider who is heating up a bit. I bet the 5-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 5-9 over/under the 3-7-11-14-12-8-4 in two smaller units.
3rd: 3-12-(13)/8-9/2-5-6-11/1-4-7/10…You always bet the #3 horse in the 3rd race, right? Well, I do when the numbers add up for me — and Kemba (3) adds up for me. This 4YO daughter of Hard Spun comes from a nice AW sire line, and she nearly won last time out at Aqueduct when traveling over the sod. Has been facing tougher and should appreciate the ship here. Barn wins with .20% when going from the grass to the AW. Blue Lily (12) picks up the meet’s top rider for the first time, after a debacle down at KEE in the last start. Barn wins with a whopping .38% of those that shift from the dirt to the AW surfaces, and that’s with the last 61 starters to make that course alteration. Look out here. Bitter Vixen (13) does warrant a serious look here if the 3YO daughter of Congrats draws in from the AE List. Won at Churchill Downs just two starts ago and the barn wins with .22% when converting from a sprint to a route effort. I bet the 3-12 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2-5 in two smaller units.
4th: 2-7-10/4/3-1-9-11-12/(14)-5-8-6…Steinbeck (2) was purchased for a whopping $650,000 as a yearling last July at Fasig-Tipton. Will be offered up here today for $30,000. Wow. Need a bigger truck, right? Bhtis one looked to be a developing superstar, but things have just not panned out. Ran OK just two starts ago at KEE, against much tougher. Drop into the MCL level for this time should help and the barn wins with .23% of those kind. Cut back to the sprint distance should not hurt, either. Sharp work here on Dec. 20. Maybe? Pennyrile (7) is our first “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 2YO son of Keen Ice took an awkward step in the career debut at Ellis Park in late August. Was pulled up in that one. Now, he is training well again and gets a top rider for the assignment. Chance. See Spot Run (10) has a couple of 2nds in the first three starts. Gets a rider switch that could help. Drops into the claiming ranks for the first time and the trainer wins with .14% of those. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 10-4-3-1-9-11-12 in two smaller units.
5th: 10-7-5/6-11/3-1A-(13)/2-1-4-8-9…Warbird (10) didn’t get any favors with the far outside post position. But this 3YO son of Declaration looks to be coming in off some of his best form — as in ever. Won just two starts ago when racing with blinkers for only the 2nd time. Came right back to nearly win last time out at Churchill Downs. Has a win and a third in two starts at this distance. Sharp work here on Dec. 19. Big chance in this spot. Cheffy (7) comes from the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning at a .21% clip here this meet. This one returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .34% of those. Also, the barn wins with .23% when returning off a layup of this size. Rider has won with .60% — that’s right — of the last 5 starts for this barn. I bet the 10-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 10-7 over/under the 5-6-11-3-1A-13 in two smaller exactas.
6th: 7-8/5-1-4/2-3-6…$100,000 Gowell Stakes…Marissa’s Lady (7) gets the edge here after winning the first two races of the career — including the Fern Creek Stakes at Churchill Downs in the last affair. This 2YO daughter of Violence has never been on the AW, but this one does have speed and stamina. It appears she has a world of talent, too. Trainer winning at a .22% clip here this meet and the rider has won with .57% of the last 7 mounts for this trainer. Look out here. Could be the real deal. Promises to Dance (8) comes from the barn of Brad Cox, who has gone 3-2-1 in the first 14 mounts here this meet. Won the last outing at Churchill Downs to break the MSW. Before that? Ran 2nd to our top pick by just a head bob. Wow. Could be another showdown between these two. I bet the 7-8 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. Sternly. Stern. Ly. I will key the 7-8 over (only) the 5-1-4-2-3-6 in a smaller unit.
7th: 5-6-10/11-2/1-3-7/4-9/12-8…Sansa’s Vow (5) is my next “Longshot Special of the Day.” This 4Yo daughter of Broken Vow has a win over an AW track at Woodbine last time out, when moved up through a DQ. Before that, this one has been coming late and just missing at the Canadian track. Trained by Josie Carroll, who is truly one of the best in the game today. Barn wins with .24% when making the 2nd start off the layup, and wins with .23% when they won the last time out. Gets a top rider to take the reins here. Look out at a nice price. Straitouttapopcorn (6) is an expert here. Just loves this place. In 11 career starts here, she has a record of 6-3-0. Just won here — again — on Dec. 9. Led gate to wire in that one. Will face tougher in this spot, but she looks to be in good form again. So Darn Hot (10) is a daughter of Ghostzapper and a 4YO filly that cost the connections a whopping $600,000 to purchase. She has won nearly $160,000 but has a long way to go to get back the initial investment. Does pick up the meet’s top rider, again. I bet the 5-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 11-2 in two smaller units.
8th: 10-(14)/2-12-5-8-11/1-6-7/9-3-4…Angel Carina (10) looks to be the one to beat in the finale, despite the awful outside post position. This one nearly won here on Dec. 3. Made the lead very late in the proceedings and was just edged at the wire. Can stalk. Can run. Looks like she should improve in the 2nd start of the career. Gets a new rider here, too. Interesting. Breeding is certainly there. Cajole (14) would certainly be a contender if the 3YO daughter of Flatter draws in from the AE List. This one has been out 9 times so far, and has 4 seconds on the resume. But she will make the career debut for the Tommy Drury barn the next time out, and he wins with .28% of those kind. Will get the blinkers here, too. Key is? Has to get in the starting gate to have a shot. I bet the 10 across the board. I will also do the same with the 14, if she gets in. I will box those two sternly if the #14 gets in. If not? I will key the 10 over/under the 2-12-5-8-11-1 in the exactas.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene