|Day Results||8 / 4-0-4|
|2021 Overall 57||57 / 18-17-22|
|Win % of Top Pick||31.58%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||33.33%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 32-57||56.14%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 27-48||56.25%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 14-48||29.17%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 8 / 4-1-0||50.00% Win / 62.50% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 11 / 6-1-0||54.55% Win / 63.64% ITM|
Hey guys. We are back for another fun-filled week of racing action at the “new and improved” Turfway Park. First post kick starts at 6:15 on Thursday night. And, we are full of brim and vigor as we launch another opportunity to have both fun and make money at the same time.
If you have not noticed, we have not been our normal selves this week. Our posting schedule as been a little tardy and a lot to be desired, to be honest.
Truth is, we have not been up to our regular “brim and vigor.” We have been a bit “under the weather,” and it has been no bargain. We will discuss more in future days, but for now, please say a prayer for all those that are struggling to stay healthy. And, please be careful. Wear your mask. Social distance. Get your rest. Wash your hands. Brush your teeth. Scrub your mittens. And, love like there is no tomorrow. (Well, some of those fall under the CDC guidelines and recommendations.)
You see, there are no guarantees. No sure things. No 1-5 shots that are pure locks. No “take it to the bank” bets.
Not in horse racing.
Not in this life, either.
So, take care of yourselves friends. I hope to be back among the “truly living” soon.
Here’s our picks for Turfway Park on Thursday night. Hope the selections feel better than me.
1st: 2-7/3-9-1/10-6/8-4…Conoloway (2) has not been out since running poorly against much, much better at Churchill Downs on Nov. 21. Brief time off may have helped. Work here on Jan. 2 was spot on, and this one drops from the $50,000 level to the $15,000 cap tonight. Barn wins with .23% when dropping this much, and with .15% of those making the barn debut, too. Will be coming late. Will get a veteran rider for the trip, though. My pick. Nostalgia (7) drops from the $30,000 tag to half that tonight. Barn wins with .09% when dropping this much. Ran a “better-than-looks” 5th last time out here on Dec. 5, though. Time before nearly won against much tougher. Has only one 2nd in 6 tries over the AW. Hmmm. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-7 solidly in one exacta. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 3-9-1-10-6 in two smaller units.
2nd: 10-1-5/8/4-7-3/2…Hickory Hill (10) drops to the bargain bin after a disappointing run over the mud in Ohio. Returns to the AW and the same level where he ran a game 2nd just two starts ago. Has the ability to score here and has a 1-2-0 mark in 5 races at TP in the past. Chance. Ed’s Rocket (1) spit the bit last time out when facing much tougher. Now, this one drops to the bin for a red-hot trainer who is winning at a .27% clip this meet and with .29% of those that get this kind of a drop. Has speed. From the rail, will scoot. Can he hold on? Gets a top rider for the assignment. My pick. Dragon Drew (5) had some serious class back in the day. Won a Stakes event over the grass at the Fair Grounds for trainer Buff Bradley, who has long-since departed ways with this one. But the 6YO found his groove here last time out. Was a man on the lead and at the wire. Will lose that condition and face tougher, but good right now. I use. I bet the 1-5 across the board — take note — and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-5 over/under the 10-8 in two others.
3rd: 3-9/4-8/6-7/5-1…This is a nice field of horses on a night full of really good races. I will give the edge to Nineeleventurbo (3), a 4YO son of More Than Ready. This one just missed here last time out on Dec. 19. That was a top-notch field, too. In the last three starts, this one has two thirds and a 2nd against good foes. Look for this on to break the seal tonight. Scale (9) goes for a barn that is still sitting on the sidelines with a 0-3-4 record in 16 starts. But this one ran third to our top pick last time out. Has never been too far out of it, and looks poised, too. Gets the meet’s top rider up. Will stalk and pounce. Maybe. I bet the 3-9 across the board and then bet those two numbers in the exacta box. Sternly. I will key the 3-9 over/under the 4-8-6-7-5-1 in two smaller units.
4th: 10-5-7/8-6/9-1-4…Dance Or Stroll (10) catches an outside gate assignment, but this one normally comes from so far out of it, it may not matter. Rider is proving a lot of things at this meet, and has won with .33% of the last 9 mounts for this barn operation. Was nearly a winner here last time out. And, in 25 tries over an AW surface? Has a 11-5-3 mark. Experience does count. Flirty (5) won here two starts ago at this same level and has 4 wins in 7 races at this facility. Look for a possible return to the previous effort. Will come late, as well. Viva Forever (7) is my first “Longshot Special.” This 7YO mare drops all the way to the $12,500 level after facing tougher last time out. Barn wins with .67% on the 2nd start off a claim purchase, and the record at Hawthorne was pretty good until the last outing. In 11 tries over an AW surface, this one does have a 2-1-1 record. I bet the 10-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 8-6 in two smaller units.
5th: 9-(14)-5-4/2-7-12-6/3-(13)/11-1…My second “Longshot Special” comes right here with Jazz Brunch (9), who has been made 12-1 odds in the ML by Brisnet.com. Love it. I would take half of those at PT. Granted, this one has not been out since last January — over a year ago. Ran poorly in that one. But the work sessions over this track are good and the barn wins with .10% when dropping this much. Gets an expert rider up and has speed. Can she hold her speed the duration off this layup. Good question. I am willing to take a shot. Lilibet (14) figures if the 6YO mare draws in from the AE. Nice odds here, too. If not, I will use both Dixie Moll (5) and Queen of Verona (4) to help cover in case the 9 misfires. I bet the 9-14 across the board. I will box the 9-5-4 in one exacta. I will key the 9-5-4 over/under the 2-7 in two smaller units.
6th: 4-1-3/6/5/2-7…Quick Witted (4) gets a nice rider switch for this effort and the hustle up from the Fair Grounds to the great North won’t hurt this one’s chances, either. Ran two really good ones in a row at CD and KEE in the Fall. If she can duplicate those efforts. Could be a motor that you can’t stop in the lane. Look out here. Luna Fortis (1) has won two in a row and in 4 tries over the AW, has 2 wins and a third. Trainer has won 4 of 16 here this meet and the rider has won with .25% of the last 24 mounts for this operation. Adds Up. Threat. Skygaze (3) could be the PT favorite, and why not? Has won two in a row and has faced some good ones in the path. Will come from off the pace, and will get the benefit of a top rider, who has a .23% win rate this meet. But will be moving up after tossing aside the last condition. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6 in two smaller units.
7th: 1-8-7/4-5/6-3-9/2…Moonoverseba (1) is another top contender that draws the rail tonight. Not the easiest place to win over this track, but this one has hit the board in each of the last 4 and 5 of the last 6. Has faced some real good ones in that mix, too. Has been working very well over this surface and gets a rider who knows how to find the finish line, too. Haunt (8) has not been near the leaders at the finish line of any of the last three outings. But the 5YO son of Ghostzapper has a top pedigree and gets the meet’s top rider. Trainer has won with 2 of 7 starters this meet and this one does have the speed to be dangerous. Time to show it. Secretary At War (7) has hit the board in each of the last 3 and the last two of those have come here and over this new Tapeta surface. Has to improve at the wire, but does have some chance. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers listed in two exactas.
8th: 4-1-3/(13)-10-6/2-11-7/8-9…Till Then (4) drops all the way from the $50,000 protected ranks to the $7,500 claiming level tonight. Will make the first start since November, too. But this one broke the maiden at Belmont Park just two starts ago and looks like a cull for the current owners and barn operation. Should leave the barn in style. Has been working very nicely. My first Key Play of the Night. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 4 over/under the numbers listed in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene