|Day Results||9 / 4-4-2|
|2021 Overall 25||25 / 9-11-9|
|Win % of Top Pick||36.00%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.67%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 16-25||64.00%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 9-16||56 .25%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 5-16||31.25%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 3 / 1-1-0||33.33% Win / 66.67% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 6 / 3-1-0||50.00% Win / 66.67% ITM|
We return to Turfway Park tonight and we resume the Winter/Spring Meet over the new and improved Tapeta surface. Nice card on the line, too.
Here’s a gander at our picks:
1st: 11-7-12/6-3-2/10-4-5/1A-1…Sheza Savage (11) drops from the MSW ranks and into the MCL $15,000 level here. Trainer is having a super meet at Turfway so far, scoring a 3-3-0 record in the first 10 starts. This one didn’t flash much in the career debut, when she broke out at the gate and then went extremely wide. Gets the meet’s top rider to take the reins here, and the barn wins at a .25% rate when going from MSW to MCL. Rider is winning at a .43% clip in the 7 mounts for this barn, too. Abbmar (7) drops another rung in the claiming game here. Has flashed some speed in the past and not been able to maintain it. Goes from the mud to the AW tonight, though. In previous run over the AW, has a third. Look for more here. Ragtime Dolly (12) is a first-time starter for a barn that wins with .24% at the MCL level. Works are OK. Just OK. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 11 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units.
2nd: (14)-7-11-10/4-9-2/1…The top pick here comes from the AE List — I’m Just Fine (14). Will need some luck just to make the starting gate, but if this 4YO gelded son of Empire Maker does run? Got to figure. Drops from the MSW level all the way to the $7,500 tag here. Work on Dec. 22 was a bullet at the Thoroughbred Center in Lexington. Chance. If he does not make the gate, I will go to Oak Room (7). This 4YO son of Into Mischief cost $65,000 at the 2020 Keeneland Horses of Racing Age Sale in January. Didn’t make that back, or even close to it. Ran here on Dec. 19 and was just so-so at odds-on favorite. Barn wins with .23% of those that return as a beaten favorite. Works here are better than the last race. I can give another shot here. Painsismygain (11) ran very well until the end of the 1-mile effort last time out. Tired and faded in that one. In three tries at this same distance, he has not hit the board. Will give it another shot here. Maybe? Scott Pond (10) ran OK here on Dec. 18. Rider has gone 4-2-2 in the last 15 mounts. Will come late in the proceedings. I bet the 14 if he gets in. If not? I go with the 7-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 14-7 or the 7-10 over/under the 11-4-9-2-1 in two smaller units.
3rd: 7/2-10-5/1-9/6-8-3/11-4-1A…Lapis Storm (7) is the first Key Play of the Night. This 5YO Stormy Atlantic mare won last time out at Hawthorne in Chicago. That was the 4th win in the last 5 races. Barn wins with .40% when trying to repeat in the claiming ranks and the rider has hooked up successfully with this trainer all meet. Look out here. Has the speed to dominate. From gate. To wire. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under all the numbers listed. More with the 2-10-5-1-9 than the rest.
4th: 2-7-10/3/11-5-8/12-1-6-4/(14)-(13)-9…Europa (2) is one of two that come from the successful barn operation of trainer Brad Cox. This is a 3YO filly by Vancouver and won at Indy Grand over the grass two starts ago. Faced some good ones in the debut at Ellis Park on debut, too. Work at the Fair Grounds on Dec. 27 was solid. Now, ships back North. Watch out here. Could be a tough one. Destinique (7) is the other one from the Cox barn. Broke the maiden here last time out for $30,000. Stalked and pounced and held on at the end. Has speed and talent. Could be a test between the Cox duo. Artie’s Rose (3) comes from the barn of Mike Maker, who is starting to heat up a bit after a chilly start to the Holiday Meet. Is up to a .14% win rate now. This one gets the Lasix for the first time tonight, too. Top rider takes the reins. Running at the end here. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 10-3-11-5-8-12-1 in two smaller units.
5th: 3-12-7/2-11/(13)-(14)/6-8-9/5-1…P H Factor (3) is another from the barn of trainer Larry Rivelli, who finished the 2020 year with a .28% win rate in 313 starts. This one was beaten 50 lengths last time out. But? Drops all the way to the bargain bin here. Won against much tougher at Arlington Park just three starts ago. In 6 previous tries over the AW? Has a 2-0-2 record. Pradar (12) nearly won last time out at Churchill Downs and against tougher foes. The one to beat here, and the barn has a 2-3-1 record in just 9 starts. This one will be a tough out. Orchestral (7) has hit the board in each of the last 5 tries, and in 20 races over an AW surface, this one has a 5-4-3 mark. Has the best speed in this one and will have to be caught to be beaten. Chance to hold on. I bet the 3-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 3-12 over/under the 7-2-11-13-14-6-8-9 in two smaller units.
6th: 2-1-6/1A-4/3-7…Hoistthemainsail (2) ran a good one here on Dec. 4 and faced off with some good company. Gets a veteran rider who has a win n two mounts for this barn this meet. Look for this one to be running at the end and with a real purpose. Second time over the AW, where the trainer wins with .17%. Algebraic (1) goes for a trainer who won with .21% of 134 races a year ago. This one gets the Lasix for the first time tonight and is coming off a nice win against tougher at Churchill Downs on Nov. 18. If he takes to the AW? Look out. Has speed to burn. Hard Rye Guy (6) broke the maiden here last time out on Dec. 4. Has run some really good races in the short career, to date. Best is to come, though, and that may be right here. Will come late and gets the son-in-law of the trainer back in the irons. Look out. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 4 in two smaller units. The entry may be able to score a double on the board — paying us twice. Nice.
7th: 1-9-10/11/4-7-5-8/6-3…She’s Hot Today (1) drops all the way to the $15,000 claiming level today, and has never been offered up for this little. Barn wins with .25% in the second start off a layup, and the trainer may be one of the most under-rated people in the profession. Horses always look good and run even better. This one is 8-1 in the ML, according to Brisnet.com. My first Longshot Special of the Night. Tootsie (9) returns as a beaten favorite and at the same level as the last outing. Made a nice late run, but just ran out of space in that one. Gets a new rider here. Chance. Brunella (10) drops all the way from a high-priced allowance at Churchill Downs to this $15,000 tag. Barn wins with .28% of the last 29 tries in the claiming ranks. Has run well in the past against better. Chance. Too. I bet the 1-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 11 in two smaller units. I will also key the 1-10 over/under the 9-11-4-7-5-8 in two smaller units.
8th: 6-7-10/8-3-4/(14)-11-9/1-(13)…Subdued (6) has hit the board in each of the last two and three of the last four races. Will make the debut over the AW, but the barn wins with .18% when dropping this much in one swoop. This one can stalk or come from behind. Versatile sort. Look out here at a square price. Fright Night (7) has hit the board in the last two and four of the last 5, as well. Comes from far back and does have a nice 0-1-2 record in three starts over the AW, so far. Will make the first career start for the new barn, which has a 4-3-1 mark in 23 starts here so far. Like this one’s chances. Baytown Jimbo (10) is a 5YO gelded son of Artie Schiller and will get a new trainer tonight and does have some nice wins against tougher in the past. Gets the veteran Perry Ouzts up tonight, and he has only 1 win in 42 starts this meet. Due. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6-7 over/under the 10-8-3-4-14-11-9 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene