|Total Day Results||8 / 2-6-4|
|2021 Overall 344||344/ 110-124-135|
|Win % of Top Pick||32.93%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||35.76%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 208-344||60.47%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 138-228||60.53%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 75-228||32.89%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 38 / 15-7-3||39.47% Win / 65.79% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 52 / 24-11-3||46.15% Win / 73.08% ITM|
We are back in action on Wednesday night, and we are excited about the possibilities as we wind down towards the Jeff Ruby Steaks on March 27 and the end of this year’s very successful Winter/Spring Meet.
Could be some very nice horses coming to town for the end of the meet — including the Jeff Ruby, which has some important Kentucky Derby points attached to it.
Could be some more top barn operations headed to Northern Kentucky for the remainder of the meet, especially now that Churchill Downs is opening up its’ backside for the return of the training community.
Could be some more top jockeys picking up mounts, too. After all, Drayden Van Dyke is headed here from California along with HOF jockey and agent Gary Stevens. Welcome guys. More the merrier.
Could it be we get on a hot streak at the betting windows, also?
We are trying.
Here’s our looks for Wednesday night:
1st: 7-3-2/8/1…Sacre Bleu (7) gets the nod in Wednesday night’s lid-lifter. The 3YO Tonalist filly has run at this level three previous times and has only a 2nd to show for the efforts. But got the blinkers for the first time last out and could improve with a return to the sprint distance, as well. Rider has 3 wins in the last 11 tries and this one has a nice work on March 10 to boost the efforts. Chance. Pipa Pan (3) drops two class rungs for this one and the barn wins with .33% of the last 3 to get this type of relief. Has to come late and will need some racing luck and room, and gets a rider who is 0-for-44 here this meet. Only one second in that mix, too. Hmmmm. Abhaile (2) drops to half the asking price here, as well. Could improve with the 3rd start off the layup. Barn wins with .08% of those. Another late closer. I bet the 7 across the board and then box theta 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 8-1 in two smaller units. I will also key the 7 over/under the “all button” in two smaller units, as well.
2nd: 1-4-9/5-3/2/7-8…Saving Mama (1) has run two seconds here in the last couple of starts and should fit nicely with this group. Will be closing late, but in 7 career starts, this one has 3 runner-up spots. May be time to check the maiden box. Solid rider takes the reins again. Bronze Beast (4) goes for a trainer who has had a super meet this Winter. Has won with .28% of his 53 starters and has won at all levels and with all kinds. This one ran a better-than-looks 4th last time out. Don’t be surprised here. Hemp Heaven (9) was claimed last time out for $7,500. Bumps up to twice that price here, but this one ran well as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .14% on the first try after a claim purchase, and this one will get Lasix for the first time, too. Chance here. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-4 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
3rd: 1/5-7/2-6/3…The first “Key Play of the Night” comes here with another rail horse — Lilibet (1). This 6YO mare ran a very nice 2nd against tougher competition last time out here on March 3. Just missed at the wire, when tiring late last time. Barn wins with .17% over the AW and gets a solid, veteran rider who can get the job done any time, anywhere. In 13 starts over the AW? This one has a 1-3-1 mark. Hmmm. I’m sticking. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-5-7 in one exacta. I will key the 1 over/under the numbers listed in two smaller units.
4th: 2-1/5-7/3-8…Prado Amore (2) is another from the barn of Dale Romans, who has a 3-3-1 mark here in 18 starts this Winter. This 4YO filly nearly broke the maiden last time out at $7,500. Now gets the drop to the bargain bin for the 2nd time in the career. Last time at this level, she was 3rd. Has been close in three starts here since December. Can this be the night? Osprey Court (1) nearly won the last time out after a fierce closing kick for my good friend and top trainer Buff Bradley. In the last three starts here, this 5YO mare has two 2nds and a 3rd on the resume. May tip the scales here with a clean run late. Apprentice jockey gets 10 pounds on the top pick. Hmmm. I bet the 1 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top two numbers in the exacta. Sternly. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
5th: 5/9-7-6-1A-8/1-2/4-3-10…The second “Key Play of the Night” comes here with King of Miami (5). This 3YO gelded son of American Pharoah ran two good ones in New York last summer. Returns for the first time since August, but has been working well for a barn that wins with .22% when coming off this type of a layup. Will race with Lasix for the first time, and as a gelding for the first time, too. Gets a rider who has won with .30% of the last 10 mounts for this barn — which is winning at a .30% clip in 64 mounts this meet. Adds up to a win for me. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.
6th: 6-1/4-3/2…Editor in Chief (6) is a 3YO son of Curlin and cost $650,000 to purchase at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Sale at Saratoga. Started the career on the West Coast with HOF trainer Bob Baffert. After two modest races, this one was shipped here and to Rodolphe Brisset. Ran a tiring 5th in the first try here on Feb. 5. Could fit better at this 1-mile distance and picks up a huge rider change. New rider is scoring at a .24% clip after 144 mounts this meet. Could be salty in the second try over the AW. Nineeleventurbo (1) has hit the board in 5 of 6 career races and has never been worse than third in three starts over this surface. Nearly won all three of those. Gets a new rider tonight, and he has the most wins of any jockey here this meet. Work on March 13 was spot on. Will be a tough out, if he can find a clear path late in the proceedings. I bet the 6-1 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. Sternly. I will key the 6-1 over (only) the rest of the numbers listed in a smaller unit.
7th: 2-3/8-4-5-1/9-7…Bless the Kitten (2) has a win, two 2nds and a third in 4 starts here since December. Seems to love the new Tapeta AW track. This one cuts back to a sprint here and that may help the attempt here. Last time at this distance, he was a rapidly-closing 2nd on Dec. 9. Look out. Kevin Witte (3) comes from the same barn as our top pick. This one rather a dull one last time out, but that was the first try over the AW. Could improve here, especially coming off a nice work last time out. Chance. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-3 in one exacta. Sternly. I will key the 2-3 over/under the numbers listed in two smaller units.
8th: 12-(14)-4/9-(13)/6-10-11…Florida Flash (12) is a third runner from the Romans’ barn that has a big chance to ring the bell on Wednesday night. This one has not started since Nov. 29 and has never hit the board in two previous tries over an AW surface. But this one has been training here and now falls to the bargain bin for the first time ever. Rider has won 2 of 4 for this barn operation in the last 60 days, and the trainer wins with .30% of the last 26 to drop this far in the claiming ranks. Oak Room (14) could be a factor if the 4YO son of Into Mischief draws in from the AE List. Has run 2 2nds in a row. If he races, he will return as a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .23% of those. Top rider will take the reins, too. Factor, if in. Captain Billy Roy (4) goes for a barn that has won with .24% of its’ 21 runners this meet. This one drops another rung after finishing 3rd here against tougher on Feb. 27. Worked well on Feb. 6. Gets a top rider in these parts. Chance. I bet the 12-14 across the board, if the 14 draws in. If not? I bet the 12-4 across the board. I will box those three numbers in the exacta. I will key the top two over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene