|Total Day Results||9 / 4-3-5|
|2021 Overall 697||697 / 251-256-288|
|Win % of Top Pick||36.01%%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.02%%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 446-697||63.99%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 54-80||67.50%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / CD 33-80||41.25%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 7 / 5-0-0||71.43% Win / 71.43% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 105 / 47-23-7||44.76% Win/73.33% ITM|
A good day at the ole’ oval in Louisville on Friday. Had 4 winners out of the 9 races carded and we spotted a few nice exactas — for a change. We had only 4 Exactas on the day, but they returned the likes of $7.20, $28.70, $121.90, $25.70 for each $1 played.
Didn’t take many $1 plays to make the day a profitable one. Hope you tagged along for the fun and festivities.
Here’s a look at the Saturday card:
1st: 2-4-5/1-3…Flat Lucky (2) gets the nod in a salty little group of 5 to kick start the Saturday card. This 6YO gelding is coming off an impressive win at Oaklawn Park last time out. Over the last five outings, he has 3 wins and two thirds. Gets a new rider here, but one that is used to winning rider championships everywhere he goes. Will be coming late and will need racing room and luck. In 5 previous runs here? No wins. Hmmmm. Ghostly Who (4) is one of two in here for trainer Robertino Diodoro. Figures to be the best on paper. Comes in off a win at Oaklawn over a sloppy track. That was a huge step up in the first race off the claim. Not unusual for this barn operation — which wins at a .28% clip when it won the last time out. In the last 320 races, this barn has won at a .27% rate. Interesting to note that the barn’s go-to rider is selected to ride the “other” horse in this race. Hmmm. Fair Challenge (5) is the “other” Diodoro horse in here. Has not started since March 15 at Turf Paradise in Phoenix. Never been East of the Mississippi. Big class jump for this effort, but the barn is hot and the rider has booted home .20% of the last 56 rides for the trainer. This one is 8-1 in the ML. Look for these odds to plummet. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1-3 in two smaller units.
2nd: 1-3/4/5-6…Strike Me Down (1) has done most of his best running over the sod, and, actually, nearly won a Stakes at Santa Anita just two starts ago when sprinting over the course there in late January. But drops into the claiming ranks for the first time here off a horrid effort last time out at Oaklawn Park against much tougher. Ran into some traffic issues in the last, but still spit the bit pretty quickly. Now gets the class drop. Barn wins with .22% in the second start off the layup and with .21% of the last 39 to drop into the claiming ranks for the first time. Veteran rider takes the reins again. Route distance could help immensely. Sermononthemount (3) ran in the G2 Risen Star Stakes just three starts ago. Was not much of a threat in there, but should be in this spot at the $30,000 claiming level. Barn wins with .34% in the 2nd start off the claim and with .22% in the second start for this top barn operator. Will come late. Like the rider. Glory Road (4) won last time out at Delta Downs. Will drop into the claiming ranks here off that win, but the 4YO son of Commissioner has a chance in this spot. Has speed to stalk. Will get first jump in the rest. I bet the 1-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 5-6 in two smaller units.
3rd: 3-11/8-12-10/7-2-4/(15)-(16)-9-6-1…This is scheduled to be the first grass race of the day, and it is slated to be contested at the two-turn distance of 11/16-miles. I will go with Suki (3), who is dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time for trainer Dallas Stewart. This 3Yo daughter of Upstart is a high claim possible here. Has been running against some very good ones and ran third just two starts ago to Paulines Pearl, who was in the G1 KY Oaks just a week ago. Will be the first test over the sod. Barn wins with only .05% of those and that is with a sample size of 39. Barn has just 1 win in 18 tries to start the meet, too. A bit chilly. Hmmm. But the race two back was in the slop and it would not hurt this one’s chances a bit if the rains came early enough to wash over to the main track. My solid pick here. Cuzzywuzzy (11) has raced 9 times and is still searching for that elusive first win. But? This one has 2 seconds and 4 thirds on the resume and is coming off a near miss 2nd last time out at Gulfstream Park. Lost that one by a neck. Look for more out of this one. Barn picks up the best rider in the room for this one. I bet the 3-11 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 3-11 over/under the 8-12-10-7-2-4 in two smaller units.
4th: 4-3-7/1-6/2-5-8…Rogue Element (4) was claimed just two starts ago off a real good effort at KEE and over a sloppy surface. Second that day. Came back against much tougher last time out at Churchill Downs. Had no chance, but lost that when roughed up at the 5/16ths pole. Barn wins with .33% in the third start off a layup, and with half of those making the 2nd start for the new barn operation. Young trainer knows the game very well and talented with the stable. Gets a solid rider to take the reins again. Look for more here. Fay Dan (3) ran 2nd last time out in the first start for the new barn operator. This son of Curlin once sold for $400,000 as a yearling. Training well here and the barn wins with .24% of those making the 2nd start off the layup. Chance. Poirier (7) drops another couple of rungs down the claiming ladder here. Ran a real good one over the grass two starts ago at the Fair Grounds. Working well and gets a nice rider switch. Barn wins with .25% when making this surface switch. Threat late. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1-6 in two smaller units. Like the #1 here a little bit, too.
5th: 1-3-2/7-8-5/6-4…Altered Shot (1) will make the first start of the 2021 campaign and has not been to meet the starter since Nov. 29 of last year. But the works are spot on and the barn can get them ready off the bench — winning at a .16% rate off this type a lay-up. Gets Lasix for the first time, and the barn wins with .18% of those kind. Moves to a top rider choice. Can this one get away from the gate any better this year? Will come late. Fine Cotton (3) is a 3YO daughter of Curlin, and the connections paid a handsome $450,000 for this one at the 2019 KEE September Yearling Sale. Made a very nice run and impression in the career debut at KEE on April 9. Just got tired in the inaugural run. Should be fitter here and ready for more. Could be a good one. A real good one. Chastain (2) is a first timer for the barn of Al Stall, Jr. This trainer wins with .17% on debut and the works are good enough to give a look. Dam has 2 winners from 3 starts and the rider is hot of late, going 2-0-1 in the last 8 mounts. I bet the 1-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 1-3 over/under the 2-7-8-5-6-4 in two smaller units.
6th: 4-8-10/6-7-9/12/2-11/1-5/3…This is a wide, wide, wide open turf event for those fillies seeking their first career win. Some show talent. Some have awesome pedigrees. Some look more ready than others. But, still? Need a little luck to decipher this code. I will give the edge to Laynlomakndough (4), who is saddled with an awful name choice. Still, this 3YO daughter of Bodemeister ran very well on debut for the new barn operation last time out. Came late. Should be fitter here and the rider is off to a solid meet, so far. Chance at a square price. Mulsanne (8) gets a new rider for this effort, and one of the best turf jockeys in the world, truthfully. Came with a real nice run in the last effort. Should be moving late, if they can find the right path. Perhaps Tonight (10) is my solid choice here. Ran huge last time out over a “good” sod course at KEE. Could be a big score here at a nice price, too. Fayette Blue (6) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This one just tired in the last outing. Shows the perfect “Z Pattern” after the first two efforts. Came late in the debut. Showed speed in the last. Will need to improve to beat these, but a shot. I bet the 4-10 across the board and then bet the 10 to win/place/show again. Love the 10 here. I will box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6-7 in two smaller units. And…I will key the 10 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller, as well. Love the 10.
7th: 5-4-2/3-1…On the Town (5) has not been out since Jan. 16, when she was a solid 2nd in a Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. That was lone 2021 start since being Stakes-placed at Laurl in late November. Training Ok for a HOF trainer coming in here. Barn wins with .20% when shipping in, and with .17% off this type a layup. Will be making a nice stalking run, if all things go well. Like this one’s chances at a mild upset. Rising Seas (4) won the last time out at Oaklawn Park, skipping along near the front end. The added distance is no friend, IMO. Has the speed. Has the talent. Can she hold off these types late? Soon to see. Himiko (2) comes from the Bob Baffert barn and will get over-bet. To be sure. Can run and haw shown that in the past. But this is a salty group to be so small and this one does not appear to want to flash the same kind of speed that she showed earlier in the career. The PT favorite, most likely, and not without a shot. I bet the 5-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3-1 in two smaller.
8th: 12-13-10/6/11-14-7/3-2-5/4-9…This is another wide, wide, wide open grass after. To be contested at the 11/16-mile distance. Good ones could come from this pack. I’ll go to the far outside and the most compromised horses in the field, due to the post positions. Leader of my pack is Flown (12). Will get the Lasix for the first time, and the barn wins with .18% of those. Ran 5th in the G2 Appalachian Stakes in an aggressive spot to begin the 2021 campaign. Should be improved from that exercise, and this one did run 2nd to Plum Ali last year. Gets the #1 rider back up here. Look for huge improvement. I do. World Tour (13) could have world class. Broke the maiden on debut and then ran 2nd in a Stakes event the 2nd time out. Gets the Lasix for the 2nd time, and the barn wins with .28% of the last 64 that qualify for that category. This one could be good. Real good. Gam’s Missionm (10) broke the maiden last time out and did run 2nd to the “Champ” Aunt Pearl last year. Faces winners for the first time here, but does have some credentials behind the resume. Mischevious Mel (6) is an Into Mischief filly, who I simply cannot leave out of this equation. Broke the maiden last time out at KEE. Look for this one to be in the mix here, too. I bet the 12-13 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units. I will also bet the 6 across the board. I will key the top 4 numbers over/under the 11-14 in two smaller units, as well. Nice betting race. Just got to hit.
9th: 1/7-10-3/2-4-5/6/9-8…My “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Crystal Ball (1). Don’t necessarily like the post position, but this 4YO daughter of Malibu Moon does have enough speed that she can pop and go from the rail — with a motivated start from the rider. Will stretch out from the 1-mile distance last time out. But the HOF trainer knows how to win races and this barn wins on .31% of the last 134 to make the 2nd start off a layup. Wins with .31% when won the last race, too. Looks to be the class of this group. I bet the 1 to win/place and then key the 1 over/under the rest of the numbers listed. More with the 7-10-3. Less with the 2-4-5-6.
10th: 2-7-4/3-8/12-13-5/10-11-1…Mamzelle Stakes…This is a 5-furlong sprint extravaganza over the sod for the 3YO fillies and a whirlwind crowd has been assembled. Could be an interesting battle here. I will give the slight edge to the inside and Goin’ Good (2), who comes from the barn of Brad Cox. Barn off to another great start here and this one has never been worse than 2nd. In 3 starts at this distance, she has two wins and a second. Tuned up with a very nice 2nd at KEE last time out. She can rate. She can finish. She can speed. Versatile filly with guts. Amanzi Yimpilo (7) has not run since beating the boys last September in the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita. But she is training very well for trainer Wesley Ward, who has two others in this race, as well. This is my pick of that liter. She is very well bred and has the ability to stalk and go, as well. Gets a very solid “finisher” in the saddle. Love this rider choice. If she can get the trip? Look out at a square price. Wink (4) is another from the Ward barn. In 4 trips so far, she has 3 wins and a second. Speed. All speed. And, must go early and often. Distance will be her big asset. But there’s plenty of gas signed on for this one, too. Could be compromised on the front end. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 2-7 over/under the 4-3-8-12-13-5 in two smaller units.
11th: 4-7/9/8-2-3/6-1-5…The final race of the day is a 6-furlong sprint for the 3YO fillies trying to find the winner’s circle for the very first time. I will give a strong tilt to Love Enough (4), who could have several offers to purchase in the claim’s box here. This 4YO daughter of He’s Had Enough is coming off two nice 2nds at the Fair Grounds. Has been off since February, and that may give some a reason to the the “pause button.” But this one has the credentials to dominate this group and is training good for the return. One to beat. Muchacha (7) will try the dirt for the first time here. Has two thirds over the AW up at Woodbine. Has not been out since last July. But the work at KEE on May 2 is spot on. Indicates the “ready button” is lit. Gets the blinkers for the first time, too, and the barn wins with .17% of those. Watch out. Village Queen (9) ran third last time out at KEE at this same level. Flashed speed that day in a different strategy than before. Tired late. But cuts back to 6 furlongs here and that should help a lot. Chance. I bet the 4-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 4-9 over/under the 7-8-2-3 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene