|Total Day Results||7/ 2-1-1|
|2021 Overall 222||222 / 67-76-84|
|Win % of Top Pick||30.18%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||34.08%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 134-214||62.62%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / TP 79-132||59.84%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / TP 40-132||30.30%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP 19 / 8-3-2||42.11% Win / 68.42% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 32 / 17-7-2||53.13% Win / 81.25% ITM|
We had a productive weekend, first at the Fair Grounds and then over in the desert of Saudi Arabia. Thanks be to Charlatan running his eyeballs out, even though he had to settle for a 2nd-place finish. We did nail the exacta in the Saudi Cup that returned a handsome $69.60 for every $1 played…And, we had more than the single unit.
In addition, we also had exactas that rendered $26.40, $7.80, and $65.70 for each $1 played, as well.
So, we begin anew at Turfway Park this week. Snow is gone. Ice pellets are gone. And, the “new and improved” Tapeta AW surface will be back in top-notch form.
We are excited for this week. On Friday night, we get two Stakes events that now will have KY Oaks and KY Derby points attached thereto. Nice.
Going to be a fun week at TP.
Here’s a look at the Wednesday card:
1st: 6-7/4-2-8/3-1/5…Johnny Cab (6) gets the nod in the lid-lifter. This 4YO gelding is coming into this one off three solid races over this surface — with a win; a second; and a third. In 12 tries over the AW now, this one has a 5-3-2 mark. Gets a top rider for this occasion and the barn is winning at a .15% clip here this meet. Solid pick. Clear for Action (7) is a speed merchant that may try to steal away on the front end and leave all the hard work to our top pick in the late goings. Clear for Action goes for a trainer who has won with .36% of his 11 AW tries, to date. Over the last two, has a win and a 6th, but that was against much, much tougher comp. Returns to the same level where he won at two raes ago. Cuts back a bit in the distance requirement, too, and that may assist the chance. Come catch me if you can. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-7 in the exacta. I will key the 6-7 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units, as well. In the Pick 5, I will go with two tickets.
The “A Ticket:” 6-7/9-7-4/1-8-10-6-3-5-2-11/12-7/10-8…For a .50-cent ticket = $96
The “B Ticket:” 6-7-4-2-8-3-1/9-7-4-10-6/1-8/12-7/10-8…For a .50-cent ticket = $140
2nd: 9-7/4/10-6/1-2-3/5…Big Sport (9) gets my nod here, and much of that credit goes to the new rider — who is setting this brave new world on fire this meet. To date, Chris Landeros has won with 27 of 103 starts and has added another 20 seconds to the resume, too. That is some hot riding in cold temps, to be sure. He will pick up the mount on this one for the first time, as this 5YO son of Kantharos moves from Chicago to the new venue. Barn hits with .36% when shipping to a new location and with a whopping .67% on the second try after a claim purchase. Looks salty at this level. Flight Time (7) ran out of gas here when sprinting 5 furlongs on Jan. 7. Cut to the chase early in that one and was in 2nd deep into the stretch. Fractions proved too costly at the wire. Barn wins with .27% when away from the gate this long and with .29% over the AW surface. Rider has been ice-cold all winter, but this one may have the perfect running style for this field of study. I bet the 9-7 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 9-7 over/under the 4 in a smaller unit. I will also key the 9-7-4 over/under the 10-6 in two smaller units.
3rd: 1-8-10/6-3-5/2-11/9-4…Kearny County (1) gets the blinkers back on from the man who took over the barn operation for the late, great Angel Montano. Ran a huge one here on Jan. 22. Ran 4th, but had the worst of trips that anyone could image. Awkward start to begin with. Came from near last to get within 11/4 lengths at the wire. And, had issues maneuvering in and round all the obstacles. If he can get a clean trip? May motor them all down in the lane this time. Top rider up. Mr Grey (8) is my first Longshot Special of the Night. This 7YO, French-bred has not started a race since last September and across the river at Belterra. But the works have been steady and solid for the return. Trainer knows how to prep them to come off the bench, and the rider has won with .20% for this barn operation. Here at TP? This one has gone 3-1-3 in 10 starts. More tonight? Chance at 10-1 ML odds. Dixie Highway (8) could be another surprise at the finish line, too. This one is at 8-1 in the Brisnet.com ML and that could work to our advantage. Has raced here four times since mid-December. Never really close at the wire. But this one is the third try at the bargain bin level and a new rider takes the assignment. Needs to get off what has been a dead rail all meet. Barn has won with .21% of the last 462 starters over the AW. Look for more here. I bet the 1-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top two numbers over/under the 10-6-3-5-2-11 in two smaller versions.
4th: 12-7/9-1/4-10/2-11/3-6…Hank the Tank (12) could be very salty in this spot on Wednesday night. Gets a top rider, who was sidelined with some discipline issues and then by the snow-outs, for a few days now, and should be self-motivated to go after the rider’s crown with earnest. The 8YO gelding has run twice here since early December. Has a second and a third. Barn wins with .19% of those making the 2nd start after a claim purchase, and with .25% when returning as a beaten favorite. Overall, barn is winning at a .29% rate this meet. Nice. Love the work here on Feb. 14, too. Poised. Top Hat Voyager (7) goes for a top conditioner, and returns to the same level where he nearly won here on Feb. 6. Came with a rush late and was nipped by a skinny neck at the wire. In 4 previous tries over the AW, this one has a second and two thirds. Comes late. Needs luck. But has a chance, too. I bet the 12-7 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 12-7 over/under the 9-1-4-10-2-11 in two smaller units.
5th: 10-8/12-2-11-(14)/5-4-6-1-7…Nineeleventurbo (10) has run two seconds in a row here after racing two thirds in a row at Churchill Downs and Ellis Park, respectively. Has been close at the wire in all four efforts. Now, a top veteran rider returns and the barn is a traditional favorite at TP. Barn wins with .23% of those returning as a beaten favorite, and with .18% of those making the 3rd start off a layup. Work here on Jan. 30 was spot on. Ready to fire. Again. Win d’Oro (8) is a 4YO gelded son of Medaglia d’Oro and runs for the top-notch barn of Mark Casse. Barn has won with .22% of the 45 starters here this meet and now picks up the top rider in these parts, for the first time. Work at the Fair Grounds on Jan. 17 was huge and the two thirds in MSW company in New Orleans suggests that this one has plenty of talent. Seems to hang a bit in the late going, but this crowd may be what the DR ordered, too. I bet the 10-8 across the board and then box those two in the exactas. I will key the 10-8 over/under the 12-2-11-14-5-4-6 in two smaller units.
6th: 7/6-3/5-9/1-8-2-10/4-11…Las Ramblas (7) is my first Key Play of the Night. This 4YO daughter of Karankontie drops for half of the asking price that she was entered for the last two times out here. Ran a solid 4th in the last one, and a 2nd the time before. Barn wins with .39% of the last 36 that dropped this much in the class order. Barn also wins with .30% when going from a sprint to a route and then back to a sprint. This is the third start off the layup, and the trainer scores with .21% of those. In 8 previous runs here? Has as 1-2-0 mark. Never been offered up for this small a price tag. I’m in. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under the 6-3-5-9-1-8-2-10. More with the 6-3. Less with the 5-9. Even less with the rest.
7th: 2-8-1/6-10/5-7-9-4/3…Richies Noble Girl (2) gets the nod here for trainer William Morey. Barn has won with 10 of 35 starters here this meet and has an overall mark of 10-5-4. Horses running well. this one has two seconds and a third in the last 3 outings here. Works are solid. Rider has won with .25% for this barn. Adds up for me. Straitouttapopcorn (8) ran a huge one here last time out, utilizing her speed element and her fondness for the AW. In 11 AW tries so far? Has 5 wins and 4 seconds. Her at TP? Has 4 wins and 3 seconds in 8 starts. This one does not have to have the lead to be successful, either. If she can see the wire, she will try her best to get there. Foolery (1) is not to be forgotten here. Will not be left out of my ticket. Broke the maiden here on Jan. 2. Was stupid good in that one, running off to win by nearly 9 lengths. Barn wins with .15% of them away from the gate this long., and with .30% of those getting the Lasix for the 2nd time. Top rider back up. Look out. Will come late. But will come. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6-10 in two smaller units. And…I will key the 2-1 over/under the 8-6-10-5-7-9-4 in two smaller units.
8th: 9/8-2-3/5-4/(13)…The last race of the night and my second Key Play of the Evening, Too. I will saddle up Conoloway (9). This 4YO daughter of More Than Ready has the pedigree to enjoy an AW surface, and has a third here in his last start on Jan. 14. Now, this one drops to half the price tag of the last race, when she was a beaten favorite. Barn wins with .23% of those dropping this much at once, and with .23% of those that return as a beaten favorite, too. Works solid. Big time rider up. All makes sense to me. I bet the 9 to win/place/show and then key the 9 over/under the “all button” in the exactas. I will key the 9 over/under the 8-2-3-5-4-13 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene