McLean Ends Churchill Downs’ September Meet On a “Slip & Slide;” But We’re Positive Changes Are Coming

Day Results10-1-2-1
2018 Overall 1487546-539-646
Win % of Top Pick36.72%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall38.80%
Top Selection ITM / CD: 71-10666.98%
Top Selection Win / CD: 33-10631.13%

It was a wet month of September, by Kentucky standards. Rains were prevalent through many of the days and nights to such a degree that I thought Noah might show up named on a mount or two — and not the one that the ship finally docked at in the end of the 40-days and 40-nights.

If we learned anything from the soggy conditions that turned most of Churchill Downs into “Churchill Drowns,” is that we should avoid soggy conditions.

Before the rains set in, mind you, we were on a roll. Going into Sept. 23 — my wife’s birthday — I had a winning percentage of 41.67% and my top choice had hit the board in either the first, second, or third slots on 75% of the races.

At one time, we had 9 winners in 10 straight races.

Not, that’s some pretty good handicapping by any standards.

Then, the mudslide hit. And, we went slip sliding way. Over the last five days, we managed only 8 winners in 46 races. That’s a pitiful win percentage of 17.39%.

And, as a result, we ended the meet with a win percentage of only .31.13%. By my standards, embarrassing.

But there were some positives.

Our top selection did end the meet hitting the board 71 times out of the 106 races that we ended up handicapping. That is nearly 67% of the time.  Positive.

For the year, our top pick is still winning at a near .37% rate. Positive.

And, if you are a faithful follower of the site, you know that on Saturday, I highly recommended and touted that you consider betting Discreet Lover in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. In fact, I made him my #1 selection. At the end, Discreet Lover was on top. At odds of 45-1. Postive.

Now, there is one more positive:

I am positive I will right this ship in short order, and get back on a winning streak. Starting this week, when the Kentucky racing circuit shifts to Lexington at the annual Keeneland Fall meet. And, what a meet it is — per usual.

And, I am positive I can find some nice winners in Lexington. Positive.

Audible ran best of our horses. Javier (Castellano) told me he couldn’t get going early in the race. He said the horse had trouble with the track and the kickback. He just couldn’t get him going. It’s frustrating when something like this happens. Javier said he thought he might have been on the best horse if he could have got going earlier. Magnum Moon, Luis (Saez) said he didn’t like the track at all. He said the kickback got to him. Johnny (Velazquez) said Vino Rosso didn’t like it (the track) either. He just didn’t want to be out there. Florent (Geroux) on Noble Indy got his trip; he just wasn’t good enough.”

Todd Pletcher, Trainer of Audible (3rd), Vino Rosso (9th), Noble Indy (17), Magnum Moon (19th)
  • Gene McLean

    Gene McLean

    Gene McLean began his professional career in 1977 as a sportswriter and columnist for the Lexington Herald-Leader in Lexington, Ky., and was recognized as one of the state’s best writers, winning the prestigious “Sportswriter of the Year” honor in 1985. Now the President and Publisher of The Pressbox, McLean sets ...

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