Days Results 9 / 5-2-3
2023 Overall — 1,170 1170 / 403-406-530
Win % of Top Pick 34.44%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 38.15%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 731-1,170 62.48%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ EP 49-81 60.49%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ EP 34-81 41.98%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD – EP 87-135 64.44%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — EP 45-135 33.33%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI 88-128 68.75%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI 47-128 36.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD 137-215 63.72%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD 69-215 32.09%
2023 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Belmont 6-12 50.00%
2023 Only / Top Pick Wins @ Belmont 4-12 33.33%
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ Belmont 4/2-0-1 50% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 33/11-10-3 33.33% Win / 72.73% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE 2 / 2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP 45/21-8-4 46.47% Win / 73.33% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 5/1-1-1 20.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ GP 6/6-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ OP 2/1-1-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI 24/13-2-3 54.17% Win / 75.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ PIM 2/1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” @ EP 29/11-6-2 37.93% Win / 65.52% ITM
2023 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 175/76-34-18 43.43% Win / 73.14% ITM

(Stats to be updated after Saratoga “bonus picks” on Wednesday)

Here’s out select picks for “The Spa” on this Thursday:

5th: 4-1/8-3/7/2-5//6…Pleasant Passage (4) gets the nod in this 11/16-mile grass event for the fillies and mares. This one comes from the barn of a HOF trainer and has hit the board in 4 of 5 lifetime tries, so far. Started the career in 2022 with back-to-back wins. Hard to do. Gets a HOF rider, to boot. Last race was much better than looks on paper. Bad stumble at the start and still ran well. Look for much better here. I bet the 4 to win-place-show and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 4-1 in the exactas. I will key the 4-1 over/under the 8-3-7-2-5 in two smaller units. 

6th: 5-1-7/3/2-6/4-8/9…This is a 6-furlong MSW event for the NY-breds and the only reason I handicapped this race was by personal request from one of my horse partners, Kevin Dickie, who has a horse in the event. Kevin and his wife, Melissa, are great people and just the types of young folks that our game needs more. They have Caldwell Luvs Gold (3), who is a 2YO daughter of Goldencents, that the Dickie’s purchased at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Sale at Saratoga. They now have a house there, too. Dam has a winner from 1 starters and the trainer is red hot. But? There are some talented competitors in here. I give the lean to Grab the Glory (5), who comes from the red hot barn of trainer Linda Rice. This one has two starts, so far, and has the experience edge. But this one must go from turf to dirt and the barn does win with .26% of the last 91 to do that. Also, this one returns as a beaten favorite, and the barn wins with .24% of the last 220 to check that box. Logical. Poseidon’s Mist (1) is a first timer for a hot barn. Working well and gets a HOF rider, too. Rail is a concern for a first timer, though. I bet the 3 — since I got to go with my home team, right? I box the 5-1-7-3 in one exactas, and then key the 3 over/under the 5-1-7-2-6 in two smaller units. I bet the 3 across the board, as well.

8th: 6-7/4-5//2/1/3…Birdstone Stakes…This is an endurance test of significant proportions — going the dirt distance of 13/4 miles. Wow. I go with Lone Rock (6), who is an endurance expert. he has actually run this distance twice before and has a win and a third. Hard to believe. Gets a top rider for the occasion, as well. Look for this one to rebound off that performance at Churchill Downs on May 3. Much better than that one. Next (7) is the ML 4-5 favorite and comes in off a G2 win at Belmont Park in the last outing. That was at 11/2-miles. So, no slouch when it comes to long distance, either. But this is even farther. I bet the 6 across the board — in my value shopping — and then box the 6-7 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 6-7 over/under the 4-5 in two smaller units. 

10th: 9-1/10/5-8-7/3//2-4/6…This is the absolute opposite of the 8th. This is a 5.5-furlong sprint over the sod. I go with Charging (9), who has a win in only previous try at this short sprint. Comes in off a debacle last time out. Spit the bit in that one. But gets Lasix back today and has the speed to be seriously dangerous. Look for the rebound here. Sosua Summer (1) is a 4YO son of Summer Front and has the breeding here to be dangerous, too. Has gone 1-1-1 at the distance and has a win over this track in only previous run here. Rider is a deep-closer type and should be pushing at the wire. I bet the 9 across the board and then box the 9-1 in the exactas. I will key the 9-1 over/under the 10-5-8-7-3 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene