McLean’s “Bonus Coverage” Handicapping: A Look at Fair Grounds Today

(Stats to be updated after Turfway Park’s Friday night card — still)

Here’s our looks at the Fair Grounds’ card today, when some of the best hopefuls for this year’s Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks will run:

5th: 5-3-2/1-1A-6/7/4-9-10/8-11…A very nice MSW event with some great pedigrees and some top prices paid. I will give the edge to Bishop’s Bay (5), who has been working lights out for trainer Brad Cox and gets the barn’s go-to rider. This 3YO son of Uncle Mo cost $450,000 to purchase and is nominated to the Triple Crown. Barn wins with .24% in the MSW ranks and that is with the last 1,100+ runners. Dam has one winner from one starter and the last work was spot on. Spot on. My pick. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 5 over/under the 3-2-1-1A-6-7 in two smaller units.

6th: 3-7/(11)-4-6/2-1-(9)/5//8-10…Albert M. Stall Stakes…I give the edge to Lake Lacerne (3) in this 11/16-mile turf event. This 6YO mare has never won over this surface in three tries, but does have a 2nd and a 3rd. Gets a top rider back in the saddle and could improve here with a little quicker “ask” in the lane. Came with a burst in the final stages and just missed last time out. In 17 turf tries, only 2 wins. But does have a 2nd and 4 thirds. Unlucky? Or just not good enough? Maybe a little of both. Trail Ridge Road (7) is my longshot play here. This trainer can get them ready and at big numbers. This is an Illinois-bred, but won the last outing against open company here and both the rider and trainer are having a nice meet. In 5 grass races? Has 3 wins and a 2nd. I bet the 3-7 across the board and then box these two in the exactras. I will key the 3-7 over/under the 11-4-6-2-1-9 in two smaller units. 

7th: 7/6-11/1-2-9/3-5-10/4-8/1A…This is a MSW event for the 3YOs and will be contested at 11/16-miles. I give a strong lean to a possible “single” here with Woodythebidspotter (7). This one cost $475,000 as a KEE September yearling and ran a huge 2nd after a wide, wide trip in the career debut. Stretches out here and that should help this son of Street Sense, a KY Derby winner. Barns wins with .28% with the last 273 to try a route race for the first time. I bet the 7 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 7 over/under the 6-11-1-2-9-3 in the exactas. 

8th: 7-5-4/8-1-6//3/2…What a beautiful allowance event here, and this race very well could push some of these top stars onto the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” a bit later in the Spring. I will give the edge to Denington (7), based on this level of experience and the foes that he has faced so far. Ran up against Instant Coffee in the G3 Lecomte Stakes last time out and was 3rd to Victory Formation before that. Gets Lasix for the first time here, and that could push this one to his best level yet, as well. Barn wins with .15% when getting the anti-bleeder for the first time and wins with .27% when dropping the blinkers, too. Look for this one to be tough in this spot. First Defender (5) won impressively on debut here, and is trained by a HOFer. Son of Quality Road is nominated to the Triple Crown and could make a serious move up the board soon. Look out here. Look. Out. I bet the 7-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 7-5 over/under the 4-8-1-6 in two smaller units. 

9th: 6-9-(13)/8/3-1-(14)/4/7/10-2-5…Colonel Power Stakes…This is a 5.5-furlong sprint over the sod and has drawn an over-subscribed crowd for this affair. I will go with the “old man” Manny Wah (6). This guy is now 7YO and has run well — at times — over both the sod and the dirt. In 3 tries over this grass course, the late closer has a win and a 2nd. Will need some speed in front of him to set it up, and the rider will no doubt hug the “darn” rail. But if he gets a chance? Look out. Evan Sing (9) has not been out since running at KEE last October. But this one comes from a Stakes-winning dam who has thrown 3 turf winners — including this one. Has a win in only previous try here. Will come from way, way, way back and will need some racing luck late. Gets a very nice grass rider up and the barn wins with .17% off the break. Surveillance (8) has won three in a  row and has a win in two tries over this sod. But? Has not seen the grass since last May at Churchill Downs. Stalker will be the one to beat, IMO. I bet the 6-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. 

10th: 3-6-8/1/7-9/2//4-5…G3 Mineshaft Stakes…Tawny Port (3) has not raced since an ugly finish to Taiba in the G1 Pennsylvania Derby last September. But that race was such an awful effort, that it is a complete toss for me. Time off seems to have helped his head and body, too. Works back are spot on and the trainer knows how to get them ready off the bench, too. Barn wins with .23% of the last 404 to be away this long. Last time the barn’s go-to rider was up on his back, this one captured the G3 Lexington Stakes at KEE. Look for a big effort here. Happy American (6) is really good right now and has won two in a row over this surface. Has a 2-1-3 mark in 8 starts at this distance and will make a serious effort at the end of this one, too. Can’t dismiss. Mr. Wireless (8) has run 2nd to Happy American in each of the last two outs and has hit the board in 10 of 14 lifetime tries. At this distance, though, this one has 3 wins and 3 seconds in 6 starts. Nice. Will give an effort and may surprise. I bet the 3-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1 in two smaller units. 

11th: 2-6-4/1/3-5-8/7…G3 Fair Grounds Stakes…This is a grass event to be contested at the 11/16-mile distance, and despite the fact that the 7YO Two Emmys (2) ran out of some gas in the final stages of the Colonel Bradley Stakes last time out, I will give him another shot here. That was the first time out since June and the layoff may have caught up with him a bit in the deep going. Also, there does not seem to be the type of early speed to go with him and press — like the last time out, too. If he can make an easier pace of it and gains any conditioning off the last effort? Look out here. Pixelate (6) did not run well to close out the 2022 year, but that was over the dirt when the grass course at Churchill Downs was given some time off. Race before was a nice 2nd and this one does have a win over this surface. Has talent. Will close. Gentle Soul (4) caught the leaders with an extreme wide move last time out. Has 3 wins in 4 tries here. Loves this sod. Must use for me. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 2-6 over/under the 4-1-3-5-8 in two smaller units. 

12th: 2/4/3-5-1//6…G2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes…This is supposed to be the “coming out party” for what appears to be the “next great thing” — Hoosier Philly (2). To date, the undefeated daughter of Into Mischief — who is a perfect 3-for-3 — has never been challenged. Not really. She has won going 51/2 furlongs. She has won going two turns. And, she won at 11/16-miles. She seemingly gets better and better and her all-star trainer calls her the best horse he has ever trained. Wow. She has already done some big things. Bigger things, though, are expected. She makes the 3YO debut here and looks ready. But? This will not be easy. Chop Chop (4) was the favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Although she didn’t run well that day, she is 2-2-0 in 5 career starts and has a Stakes win on turf and a near-miraculous G1 win in the Alcibiades. If not for a horrific start in that one, she may have defeated the 2YO champ in Wonder Wheel. Sets up as a huge matchup to start the real serious prep races. Chop Chop does have a race under her girth this year, already. That may be all the edge she needs? I bet the 2 to win/place and then box the 2-4 in the exactas. I will key the 2-4 over/under the 3-5-1 in two smaller units. 

13th: 9-8-13/10/5-6/11-14/4-12-2/7…G2 Risen Star Stakes…Curly Jack (9) will make the 2023 debut for top trainer Tom Amoss and is morning works are any indication? This one looks primed for the party. Working great and doesn’t look like the brief time off did anything but help this one, but ran 2nd to Instant Coffee in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs last November. Change in race tactics may have compromised this one’s chances in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, when jockey was told to press the pace a bit more. I look for huge effort here today. Tapit’s Conquest (8) may have been the most impressive 3YO colt on Lecomte Stakes day. Ran 2nd on the rail, but was bottled up the entire way until the final stages. Better ride today and this one could be huge at the wire. Victory Formation (13) is a perfect 3-for-3 for the brilliant Brad Cox. But? This one has a far outside post and wants the lead. Ton of other “speedy types” in here, too. May be up against it today when facing tougher here. Vunerable, to me. I bet the 9-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 9-8 over/under the 13-10-5-6-11-14 in two smaller units.