Total Day Results 12 / 6-2-7
2021 Overall 1,788 1788 / 671-643-841
Win % of Top Pick 37.53%
Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall 40.18%
2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 1,212-1,788 67.79%
2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 144-214 67.29%
2021 Top Selections Win / CD 70-214 32.71%
“Key Horses” @ CD 31/14-7-0 45.16% Win / 67.74% ITM
“Key Horses” in 2021 273/ 124-61-24 45.42% Win / 76.56% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @ CD 17/0-2-1 00.00% Win / 17.65% ITM
“Longshots of Day” @IGR (11-11-21) 21/4-1-0 19.05% Win / 23.81% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ SAR (8-28-21) 4/0-2-0 00.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ KY Downs 19/2-1-2 10.53% Win / 26.20% ITM
“Key Horses” @ Breeders’ Cup 2/1-0-0 50.00% Win / 50.00% ITM
“Longshots of the Day” @ Breeders’ Cup : 2 / 1-0-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM

It has been a fun year. It has been a very busy year. And, it has been a very, very, very fast year. Nearly as quick as Jackie’s Warrior running 6 furlongs on an East Coast kind of day.

Through it all, it has been a whirlwind year of handicapping; calculating; contemplating; and analyzing.

At times, it has been exhilarating.

At times, it has been exasperating.

At times, it has been fulfilling.

At times, it has been frustrating.

But, though it all, it has been very rewarding.

Welcome to the world of a handicapper, who loves what he does and does it for the love of the ride.

Going into the Turfway Park Holiday Meet — that begins this Thursday night in Florence, ya’ll — we have handicapped and posted picks for a total of 1,788 races in 2021.

Wow. That is 1,788 races.

Let’s just say that the average field for those races was 8. I’m just guessing here. But if it was 8, then that would mean that I have poured over the numbers of 14,304 horses this year.

Lots of squinting.

Lots of scribbling.

And, I must say, probably lots of scrubbing both the numbers of my “system” and my mouth after most of those races.

But…

Let’s let the numbers do the talking, shall we?

So far this year, we have won at a rate of 37.53%. Our top pick has hit the board 67.79% of the time. And, our “Key Plays of the Day” have gone 124-61-24 in 273 selections. That’s a win percentage of 45.42% and those picks have hit the board (finished 1-2-3) on 75.56% of the time.

Here’s the breakdown per meet:

Turfway Park (last January — March):

We won 103 of 296 races = 34.80%

Our top pick hit the board 179 of 296 races = 60.47%

Our “Key Plays” went 22-10-3 in 49 selections = 44.90% win / 71.43% ITM

Keeneland (April):

We won 62 of 141 races = 43.97%

Our top pick hit the board 100 of 141 races = 70.92%

Our “Key Plays” went 6-5-1 in 18 selections = 33.33% win / 66.67% ITM

Churchill Downs (May-June)

We won 126 of 335 races = 37.61%

Our top pick hit the board 229 of 335 races = 68.36%

Our “Key Plays” went 22-6-1 in 37 selections = 59.46% win / 78.38% ITM

Ellis Park (July-August):

We won 98 of 239 races = 41.00%

Our top pick hit the board 177 of 239 races = 74.06%

Our “Key Plays” went 10-9-7 in 33 selections = 30.30% win / 78.79% ITM

Kentucky Downs (September):

We won 24 of 63 races = 38.10%

Our top pick hit the board 39 of 63 races = 61.91%

Our “Key Plays” went 3-1-0 in 6 selections = 50.00% win / 66.67% ITM

Churchill Downs (September):

We won 44 of 117 races = 37.61%

Our top pick hit the board 85 of 177 races = 72.65%

Our “Key Plays” went 10-6-2 in 21 selections = 47.62% win / 85.72% ITM

Keeneland (October):

We skipped this meet. For some reason, the track — where I grew up and fell in love with this sport — apparently doesn’t respect my handicapping abilities or my inquiries. They ignored my calls. So, I ignored their meet. Seemed fair enough at the time. Moving along…

Churchill Downs (November):

We won 70 of 214 races = 32.71%

Our top pick hit the board 144 of 214 races = 67.29%

Our “Key Plays” went 14-7-0 in 31 selections = 45.16% win / 67.74% ITM

In addition, we handicapped the races at Indiana Grand on 16 dates in 2021. Here’s a run-down of those numbers:

Indiana Grand (2021):

We won 72 of 167 races = 43.11%

Our top pick hit the board 119 of 167 races = 71.26%

Our “Key Plays” went 14-9-6 in 32 selections = 43.75% win / 90.63% ITM

We are looking forward to gearing the mind and the calculations back up on Thursday for the upcoming Holiday Meet at Turfway Park. And, we are hoping to finish the 2021 year with a bang. After all, New Year’s Eve is on the way.