Final Version: McLean’s Picks at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 20

(Stats to be updated after Wednesday, Thursday and Friday cards)

Here’s our looks at Churchill Downs on this Saturday of the G1 Preakness Stakes:

1st: 1-4-5/6//2-3/7…Myopic (1) ships in from the great Southwest and Turf Paradise to grab the promo in the ole’ lid-lifter at Churchill Downs on this Saturday celebration day. This one ran horrific in a Stakes last time out. Now, this one is being offered up for $12,500 here. First time in the claiming ranks and the barn wins with .21% of the last 96 to get the drop. Barn also wins with .25% of the last 205 to go from turf to dirt. Looks the best here, but not a lot to choose from, either. I bet the 1 to win/place and box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

2nd: 1-2-5/3/6/4…Little Frappucino (1) gets the nod here, in a mild surprise. This 4YO son of Bayern has been spot on in the last four outings, totaling a win and 3 runner-ups for a HOF trainer. Fits with this group and has the speed to be seriously dangerous. The barn’s former go-to rider is back in business here and should be inspired to ride a real good one. I can see it. Back to Normal (2) is the ML favorite and should be. Has faced tougher and should improve with the drop in class here. Barn wins with .19% of the last 459 to make the 2nd start off a layoff. Training well, as well. Kentucky Bourbon (5) was claimed off a winning effort two starts ago. Ran well last time out and should be in the hunt late. Will be coming in the lane. I bet the 1-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 2-7/1-6-4/3-5…Super Cat Lady (2) gets top billing here, in my pre-game book. This 6YO Super Saver mare has hit the board in the last 3 — all super efforts. Easily could have won all 3 of those efforts. Moves up in class here a couple of notches for a barn needing a win. Has a nice 2-1-0 mark here in 5 previous tries . Same rider in the last 3 sticks to his knitting and could find the wire first here. The Club (7) has faced tougher in the last few and should appreciate this class drop. Trainer is off to a great start “at home,” and has a 6-2-4 mark in the first 23 outs this meet. Veteran rider up and the barn wins with .10% when cutting back from a route distance to a sprint. Chance. I bet the 2-7 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I key the 2-7 over/under the 1-6-4 in two smaller units. 

4th: 12-4/8-13-15/2-9/16…This 1-mile event was originally scheduled for the sod. After it was moved this morning to the main track, there were a number of scratches (1-3-5-6-7-10-11-14 out). As a result, I go with Tiger Tap (12). This 3YO Tapit filly has run two good ones in a row and was a close up 4th in a race that was previously moved off the sod at Gulfstream Park in December. Could be coming late over the slop here. Callie’s Gift (4) has never been on the main track, but the sire line is known for throwing mud-mark runners. Has 2 runner-ups in the first 3 and if she coverts to this surface? Look out. I bet the 12-4 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 12-4 over/under the 8-13-15-2-9 in two smaller units. 

5th: 1-5/4-3/2/6…Judo (1) gets the nod here with the huge drop in class for a top barn. Conditioner wins with .26% of the last 19 when dropping this much at one time. Go-to rider takes the reins. Has a 2nd in only previous try here. One to beat. For sure. Mac’s Time (5) is another dropping in class here for a hot barn operation, these days. Should be closer to the pace against this group and the barn wins with .16% when moving from turf to dirt. Fits here, big time, and would love to see this son of Not This Time win for the classy namesakes. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 1-5 solidly in the exactas. I will key the 1-5 over/under the 4-3 in two smaller units. 

6th: 2-6/3-8/1-5-7/9//4…This is a MSW event for the 3YO fillies and will bet contested at the abbreviated distance of 5.5 furlongs. I give the strong edge to the top 2 numbers — led by Sassy Walker (2). This one went postward as the PT favorite in the career debut at KEE and ran a tiring 4th at 6.5 furlongs. Cut back in distance should help and the 2nd start is always better. Barn wins with .22% of the last 68 of those. Barn wins with .22% with the last 130 beaten favorites, too. Big shot here. Swanson Lake (6) goes for a highly under-rated trainer, who is winning at a .19% clip this year after the first 156 starts. This one had a horrendous start in the debut race and was well supported at the windows that day. Take a look here. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then double down on this exacta box. I will key the 2-6 over (only) the 3-8-1-5-7-9 in a smaller unit. 

7th: 5/3/6-4/2-1…Street Swag (5) gets the “Key Play of the Day” designation in this spot. The 3YO son of Sweet Sense ran very well at KEE in the lasts outing and won against tougher. Has won two of the last 3 and appears, on paper, the much the best. Has speed. Can rate. Rider can win. Has gone 3-3-1 in the last 11 outs. I bet the 5 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 5 over/under the 3-6-4-2-1 in the exactas. Much more with the 3 than the rest. Much more. 

8th: 11-10-8/6-5/(15)-(13)/4-12/3/1-2-9…Numero Seis (11) gets Lasix for the first time and the barn wins with .17% of the last 47 to get treated with the anti-bleeder. The last race was a huge step up in Stakes company and this 3YO filly may have needed the Lasix in that one. Barn has won last 5 of 9 in the past two weeks and the rider is a solid choice. I like this one. Secret Money (10) won the MSW last time out at Keeneland and looks to have a big shot to move up and beat other winners for the first time. Barn wins with .21% of the last 86 to make this move up. New rider can boot and this one looks well positioned. Mischievous Doll (8) goes for a top trainer. Do not underestimate this one. Won the MSW last out and has trained well coming in. Chance with the apprentice up. Stays on the grass, too. I bet the 11-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-5-15 in two smaller units. 

9th: 8/3-10-7/6-2/5/4/1…This is a rather “soft” group, IMO, but I will stick out the preverbal neck and pick here and go with a “Key Play of the Day” — Bali Dreamin (8). This 4YO filly comes in off a solid effort in the last two and has a 1-2-1 mark in 5 tries at the distance. Will face much easier in this spot, and this one could boost the barn’s numbers. I bet the 8 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 8 over/under the 3-10-7-6-2 in the exactas. More with the 3-10-7.

10th: 2-8/3/6-9-1-4/5-7/10…This is a 5.5-furlong test over the main track for the MSW level girls. This is a wide, wide, wide open “dart-throwing” contest. Take a number. Any number. Try to hit it. I give the edge to a few who have already tried their hooves on the track. Slight edge to With This Ring (2) will make the 2023 debut here for a new barn operator. Will get Lasix for the first time and a new rider. Has been working lights out for the return and the cutback in distance should help, if the morning form holds. Lady Irene (8) has a chance in here, as well. This one goes for a top barn operation and will get Lasix for the first time. Will make the 2023 debut here with a cutback in distance. Lots of works in the a.m. Should be ready. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-8 in the exactas. I will key the 2-8 over/under the 3-6-9-1-4 in two smaller units. 

11th: 7-2-9/1/10/5-3/8/4/6…G3 Louisville Stakes…This is a 11/2-mile marathon over the soggy sod, and the decision-makers have chosen to keep this one on the grass. Therapist (7) deserves the top-billing after being claimed for a mere $50,000 just three starts ago. Has adopted to the new barn operation in style. Won each of the last 2, including the G2 Pan American Stakes at Gulfstream Park when being extended to this same distance. New rider is an interesting choice for this barn, but he has won with one of two for this trainer, of late. Bay Street Money (2) ran behind the top pick in the Pan American. Had some real traffic issues in that one and could flip the predicate here with a cleaner trip. Has a win over this sod, too. Another Mystery (9) ran a good one last out at KEE. Goes for a new trainer here. Has the most experience at this long distance, having raced 11 times. Has a 1-4-2 mark, to date. Underneath? I bet the 2 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1-10 in two smaller units.