After a great day of handicapping and betting on Saturday at Saratoga, we embark on a beautiful Sunday day of races. At The Spa on Saturday, we hit for 6 winners, 6 place bets and 8 exactas. We hit with both our “Upset Specials” — including Warrior Club, and we nailed that exacta, too.
At the very least, we are better than this guy:
So, let’s try to duplicate that success today. First, here is a closer look at today’s card at Ellis Park. Saratoga will be coming shortly.
1st: 4-1-6-2…Does not take long to get my “dot” pick, and that’s Dos Cuernos (4) in this spot. Didn’t close with authority in his last try here on Aug. 20, but gets a huge rider change to the meet’s top jock in Corey Lanerie. Arlen’s Prospect (1) is an interesting one, who has been on the sideline since a Feb. 3 spotting at Gulfstream Park. Gets back to the afternoon action today with a significant class drop and gets a top rider and blinkers, too. Watch out. Colonel Swinson (6) moves up in class after a much-needed outing here early in August. That was his first outing since February. Goes for the top barn of Scooter Dickey. I bet the 4 to win/place and then box the 4-1-6 in the exacta.
2nd: 1-3-2-7-6…Baby Run to Me (1) close with a fury to win her last out here on Aug. 11 and no reason to think that she can’t do it again, other than the fact she is shortening up from 11/16 mile to a flat mile. Still, she is the one to beat. Scout It Out is an interesting choice for Lanerie in this spot at first glance, but if you dig a little deeper, she really likes the grass and she had a big run here back in July. Don’t dismiss this one at 10-1 ML. Upset Special #1. Disney Pretty (2) goes for the barn of Jinks Fires and gets son-in-law Jon Court up. Tries every time and has 16 ITM finishes out of 33 starts. But Fires hits with only .03% of grass starters. Leary. I bet the 1-3 to win/place/show and then box those two in one exacta; key those two over/under the rest of the numbers listed.
3rd: 2-6-5-4-3-9-8…Woman of Love (2) is 8-1 in the ML, but deserves another shot here today. Was beaten as the odds-on favorite at Ellis on July 23, but take a look at that replay. Stumbled badly at the gate and then went way wide into the 5 path before finishing third. A cleaner trip today may assist. Upset Special #2. Candy Lou (6) is 6-1 ML and could team up for a very nice exacta. Eric Foster attracts Lanerie to ride this one, and she was beaten only 41/2 by Go Noni Go three starts back. Drops to the claiming ranks for the first time searching for the circle. Flat-out Happy (5) goes for trainer Steve Asmussen and gets the drop, too. Should improve off that first start. I bet the 2-6 to win/place/show and then box the 2-6 in one exacta and then key those two over/under all the rest of the numbers listed.
4th: 5-4-6…Chris Hartman is having a super meet and will put the saddle on The Last Prophet (5) in this one. This colt ran off to an easy win in his last and now has 7 ITM finishes (3 in a row) out of 14 lifetime starts. Moves up in conditions today, but gets Lanerie up in a soft field. Glitnir (4) goes for old friend and trainer Rick Hiles, who has a win and a third in only 4 starts this meet. This one gets the class plunge and is definitely the one to beat. Thamaan (6) won his last, too, and moves up a condition, as well. I bet the 5 to win/place and then box the 5-4-6 in one exacta.
5th: 1-8-6-3…Tickety Boo (1) nearly pulled off the win last time out, before tiring at the end of the 11/16-mile turf race. Now, shortens up to a mile and goes to the dirt. Should be really fit for this one, and gets a rider switch to help. Natchez Pass (8) and Budget Cut (6) are about the same and consistent sorts. They will be the favorites and the ones to beat. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-8-6 in the exacta.
6th: 6-9-7-8-4-3-1-5…Tenkoz (6) is a $525,000 purchase by the Albaugh Family Stable, who will be making his first career start today. Has been working lights out and comes from the same stable as Dak Attack. Watch out for this one. Drop Kick (9) has been prepping here at Ellis for the Steve Asmussen barn and looks to be coming into the race the right way, too. Crosswalk (7) has been training well for an outfit that normally does NOT crank them up early. This may be an exception. Keep an eye out for Tizpure (8), too. This is trainer Dale Romans’ “other” entry in here and goes for owner Frank Jones. This one could be a shocker. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-9 solidly in one exacta and then key those two over/under all the rest.
7th: 6-4-1-3-7-5…Lomcevak (6) was claimed last out by the Asmussen barn and they do well with first timers off the purchase. This one nearly won last out at 15K, and could pull off the win today with a similar effort. Dujac (4) gets a career plunge in class for the barn of Ian Wilkes, who is having a very nice year. Gets the blinkers on and should appreciate the class. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-4 solidly in one exacta and then key those two over/under all the other numbers.
8th: 2-6-9-10-5-1-7-8…A nice MSW event here features a very competitive field, led by Tiz A Treasure (2), who goes for trainer Ingrid Mason. This one was heavily supported at the betting windows in her career debut here on Aug. 12, but got a super wide trip. She still ran on and finished third that day, but should do better in this spot. Gets a positive rider switch. Spanky (6) goes for the barn of Brad Cox, who has won with .37 of his starters this meet and he teams up, once again, with Lanerie for this first timer. The Van Berg stable has had a tremendous meet and they get a new rider in Jon Court for Silver Turns Gold (9), who has a big shot at 10-1 ML odds. Ran a super, closing 2nd in her career debut and should improve today. I bet the 2 & 9 to win/place/show and then box the 2-6-9 in one exacta. I key the 2-9 over/under all the numbers in two more.
9th: 1-8-7-3-10…Ours Again (1) gets a huge class drop in the finale for trainer Mike Maker. If it stays on the grass, he will be a tough one to beat in this group. Dart Toss (8) has not been out since March, but may run fresh in this spot. Army Grey (7) has a shot. I bet the 1 to win/place and then box the 1-8-7 in one exacta and then key the 1 over (only) the rest of the numbers in another.
Saratoga (Abbreviated Comments):
1st: 4-5-1-6…Sudden Surprise (4) is a member of Todd Pletcher’s barn army and comes in off an impressive 3-length victory. Has 8 wins in 16 career starts, and can string good races together. I bet the 4 to win/place and then box the 4-5-1 in the exacta.
2nd: 10-11-12-3-5-6…Wide open race, but I land on Way Smart (10), who made a nice run on June 22. If she can duplicate that effort today, she will be tough. I bet the 10 to win/place/show and then box the 10-11-12 in the exacta.
3rd: 1-5-6-3…Conquest Bigluck E (1) ran at Canterbury in his last start on June 29. Very vulnerable in this spot, but can run a bit. I bet the 1 to win/place and then box the 1-5-6 in the exacta.
4th: 6-7-2…Jump For Joy was off from March to Aug. 16, when she ran a solid second with the blinkers for the second time. Any improvement off that start and she figures to be tough in this spot. I bet the 6 to win/place and then box the 6-7-2 in the exacta.
5th: 7-4-5-10-9…Cashless Society (7) goes for Chad Brown and has 2 wins in 3 starts. Comes off an easy win as the favorite in her last. Should be tough with that type of run today. I bet the 7 to win/place and then key the 7 over/under the rest of the numbers listed.
6th: 2-1-10-3-8-7….Campaign (2) is a first time starter who cost $675,000 as a yearling. Has been training well for this one, but trainer Chad Brown slips in his win percentage when debuting at 1 mile or over. Voting Control (1) is another Brown disciple and is another first timer tarter. Johnny Action (10) has the benefit of a start, and gets blinkers for this one. I bet the 2-1 to win/place/show and then box the 2-1-10 in one exacta and then key them over (only) all the other numbers listed in another.
7th: 1-10-8-9-5-3-2…More Mojo (1) has the benefit of a start over the track and the filly that finished just in front of her in that race has already come back to win. Should be tough in this spot at 7-2 ML odds. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then box the 1-10-8 in one exacta and then key the 1 over/under in two more.
8th: 6-5-4-9-7-1…Rubilinda (6) gets my Best Bet of the Day mark in this spot. She is by the great sire Frankel and goes for the barn of Chad Brown. Gets the stable’s top jock in this one and should be really tough in this spot. I bet the 6 to win/place and then key over/under all the other numbers listed.
9th: 7-9-8-6-4-1-2…Rudy Rodriguez is starting to heat up at Saratoga and sends out Libby’s Tail (7) in this spot. This one cost $375,000 at OBS last spring and is coming off a super effort on Aug. 6 — which was her first effort since January. Should be tough if the race made her more fit. I bet the 7 to win/place and then box the 7-9-8 in one exacta and then key those three over (only) the other numbers listed.
10th: 5-4-6-8-7…The G2 Prioress Stakes…Vertical Oak (5) has had a good year and comes out of the G1 Test Stakes, where she was overmatched by American Gal. If she can regain a bit of her form before that race, then she will be testy in this one. I bet the 5 to win/place and then box solidly with the 5-4 in one exacta and then key the 5-4 over (only) the other numbers listed.
11th: 10-8-6-2…Blue Atlas (10) should be the prohibitive favorite in this spot today. Has been knocking on the door in both of her first two tries and should get to the circle today with a clean trip. I bet the 10 to win/place and then key over/under the other numbers listed in the exactas.
Good luck &
All the Best/Gene