Day Results 8-3-3-3
Churchill 65-14-24-28
Top Pick Win % 21.50%
Top Pick ITM % 34-58 58.60%
Top 3 Picks ITM % 33.80%
2018 Overall 654 Races 229-249-264
Win % of Top Pick 35%
ITM % of Top 3 Picks 37.80%

 

1st: 5-3-4-1-2…Sheikh of Sheikhs (5) gets a “dot” (must use for me) in this spot. Ran on the grass last time out and obviously didn’t prefer the switch in surfaces. Trainer is 20% on the third off a layoff, and ran a real good one two back before tiring late as the beaten favorite. My pick. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under the numbers listed above in the exactas.

2nd: 4-3-5-6-7-2-1…Brave Soul (4) is another one who gets a “dot” early on today’s card. Another from the barn of Mike Maker, who is off to a slow start here with just 1 win in the first 12 starts. This one ran well on the drop last time and gets another move down in class today. Gets a nice rider switch here. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed here in the exacta.

3rd: 4-6-2-5-1-7…A wide open affair here, but I go with Arcelor (4), for a red hot trainer. Ran a super nice race in a small Stakes even two back at Gulfstream Park and picks up one of the meet’s top riders today. Trainer hits with .29% after beaten as the favorite. Dusted Carolina (6) goes for a sneaky good trainer and drops in class for this one today. Has run in the money eight straight times and has five seconds in the last six races. Can’t dismiss this one. Barbary Hall (2) has a win and a third in four tries over this track. Drops in class today. I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I key the top 3 over/under the rest in a smaller version. 

4th: 6-3-1-5-2…Trustworthy (6) was previously trained by Clifford Sise on the West Coast. Ran really well at Santa Anita. Trainer scores with .15% of those making the barn debut. I really like the way this one trained here in April, too. Iconic (3) drops in class for this one and had a super nice run back in January at Gulfstream Park. Talent is there. Will it reappear? Pryor (1) finished third against tougher lat time out and I like the new rider choice from the rail. Has some speed at a distance and could make the pace today. I bet the 6-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

5th: 3-2-1-5-7-4…Sonoma Crush (3) goes for a trainer off to a cool start this year, but should like the return to the dirt today. Trainer does hit with .19% with those making this type of surface switch. Has 2 wins in 6 starts at this distance, too. Lookin for a Kiss (2) gets a significant drop in class for this one and the trainer hits with .17% of those returning off a win. Sharp work here on May 5, too. Adds up. Knights Key (1) has two seconds in a row and the last came against these types. Has a win over this track in just two starts. I bet the 3-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

6th: 1-4-6-5-8…I concentrate on the top 2 numbers in this one, with a key on the 1. Slick Silver (1) has two seconds in a row to begin his career and faced a real good one in Crosswalk to start. If he can duplicate that run from the rail — which is hitting at a 20% clip at this distance this meet — then he will be tough to handle. Chuck’s Dream (4) looks to be the main competition for the preferred choice. Ran well before tiring in the last against Telekinesis, who ran a game second to My Boy Jack in the Lexington Stakes. That is high cotton right there. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then hammer the 1-4 exacta. I may key the 1-4 over the rest in case of a split, in a much smaller version.

7th: 7-9-8-5-2-6-3-1-4…Again, I concentrate on the top three numbers here. Dontmesswithjoanne (7) will get the saddle from Brad Cox, who is having a super good year. This filly has been on a roll of late, with two wins and a second in the last three. But, more importantly for me, this Louisiana-bred has run well in Open Company before. Look at the race two back and then again at this track last September. Shouldn’t mind the step up in competition. Browse (9) has two 4th place finishes in a row for a top barn, which is looking for its first win here. This one likes to stalk the pace and she gets a nice rider for that purpose. Trainer hits with .25% with beaten favorites. May improve with the second start off a layoff. I can’t leave out Burma Road (8), either. Gets back to a route of ground today and that should help this one, who had a super nice work on May 8. Been facing Stakes competition and gets back to better company in this one. I bet the 7-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers solidly.

8th: 3-6-8-7-5-1-2-4…A more wide open race here. I go with Fort Peck (3), who has run two very nice races for trainer Ian Wilkes to start the career. Beaten as the favorite last time out and the trainer hits with .27% of those returning from such conditions. Nice work on May 9, and the trainer also conditioned the sire of this 3YO gelding. Look out here. Air on Fire (6) is a horse who has been on my “To Watch” list for quite some time. Will make the third start off a layoff today, after moving East from Santa Anita. Has run well the first two times and any improvement today could put this one in the right spot. Has speed to use. Rushin Tothecircle (7) ran third at huge odds pastime out. May be getting better and eligible to move up with the third off a layoff. Rider is super hot these days. I bet the 3-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the top 2 over the rest in a smaller version. Don’t leave out the 5-1 in that equation.

9th: 9-3-5-8-2-7-10…Unbridled Sydney Stakes…I love Morticia (9) in this spot today. This will be here third start off a layoff and she should really move up after pushing the pace in the last against Lady Aurelia. That set up the late move by Triple Chelsea (3). I think the 9 gets a great trip in this one with the hottest jockey in the country sitting on her back for the first time today. I bet the 9 to win/place and then box the top 2 solidly. I key the 9 over/under all the numbers in two more exactas.

10th: 2-9-7-8-3-1A-1…Taruca (2) won the pastime out and did so impressively. That came on the drop down and now moves up a notch. But seems to like this distance and this company. Has a win in 3 starts at the distance and the trainer hits with .27% on claimer repeaters. Magicalmeister (9) won the John Battaglia Stakes over the plastic at Turfy three back. May prefer that surface, but is capable of showing up big at this level. I use this one and the trainer hits with .50% when dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time. I bet the 2-9 across the board and then box the top three numbers in one exacta. I key the top 2 numbers over the rest in a smaller version.

11th: 8-9-3-4-5-11…Love to Share (8) won the last time out before being disqualified. Moves up a small notch for this one, but could graduate today with a new rider in the saddle. Trainer is super hot right now and hits with .25% of newcomers to the barn. Love the breeding on this one, too. Naples Lady (9) goes for top connections and should improve against these type today. The winner and runner-up in the debut race have proven to be solid runners. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then key the 8 over/under all the numbers in the exacta.

Good Luck & All The Best/Gene