Day Results 10-2-2-3
Keeneland 102-34-38-45
Top Pick Win % 33.30%
Top Pick ITM % 62-102 60.80%
Top 3 Picks ITM % 38.20%
2018 Overall 587 Races 201-215-223
Win % of Top Pick 34.20%
ITM % of Top 3 Picks 36.30%

We have been a bit off this week going into the weekend, as opposed to just a week ago when we were on an absolute roll. We will try to right the ship a bit today, after having just 2 winners in 10 tries on Friday. Here is a closer look at today’s card.

1st: 2-1-5-7…Vibe (2) is a horse that we have played, touted, and avoided in the last 5 months, since he was shipped East from Santa Anita. He will be running a step up the ladder today after being claimed last time out at the career low, bargain-basement price. He nearly won that one when jostled late, and bet under 2-1 odds. New trainer hits with .19% of those making the barn debut and this one does have a 4-1-4 record in 18 career starts. Any improvement today off the last one should propel this one to the top rung. Added distance should not be an issue for this one. Tabaddol (1) was claimed two races back, and immediately elevated to this level. Ran a good one while a well-beaten second last time out for these new connections, who have limited number on which to judge. Rider is colt as April snow showers in Lexington. Bagpipes (5) get the drop to a career low level today and picks up a nice rider switch. The new guide has been on an absolute roll, and this one should fit at this level a lot better. Ran second here last April and could do it again. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

2nd: 5-3-1-2-7-4-6…Weneedtotalk (5) will get the drop back down in class after falling off the map in the last try going 2 turns. Shorter distance should help and so should the softer company today. Trainer does have a w win this meet, while the rider is still searching for that elusive victory despite having 4 seconds on the card. Runner-up in both of the previous performances came right back to win. This one should be ready to graduate. Soft Cheese (3) gets the class drop to a career low purchase price today. Won on debut at Oaklawn Park last March and immediately dropped into the Stakes races. Hasn’t been the same since, but she has never seen this level before either. Trainer does score with 19% of those at these ranks. Eternal Vow (1) broker her maiden last time out, and now will move up to face winners for the first time. This is not a normal success pattern, but this one pulled away to win by over 5 lengths, and that win came here on April 15. Here’s hoping she really liked losing the blinkers last time, and finds this track to her liking. Top rider gets up today. I bet the 5-1 across the board, and then I box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

3rd: 2-1-7-4-6-3…Hazana (2) broke her maiden two races back when lowered into the sales category for the first time. Came back and ran a credible race against winners and against much tougher in her last try. Was wide in that one, and today will get a hot rider on top. Special Relativity (1) won two races back on the slop, and then came back to run a solid second on the grass in the last try. Has faced some real good ones in the past, like Coach Rocks at Kentucky Downs back in September. Had a super training session at Churchill Downs on April 14. Watch out for this one. Rahway (7) will get the saddle from Mike Maker today, and this one is coming off a last-placed finish to Cosmic Burst in the G3 Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 10. Before the, she had hit the board in three of the previous four. Good works here over the last month. Looks ready with the addition of the world’s top rider. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

4th: 3-9-8-4-5-6…More Moola (3) will shorten back up after trying a mile race over the plastic stuff at Turfway Park last time out. Debut run wasn’t bad, and regressed when trying two turns the last time out. Has had issues in both of the first two tries, but with a clean run she may be tough here with the addition of a top rider into the saddle. Secret Town (9) is 12-1 in the ML, but I really like this first timer starter who goes for a sneaky good trainer. This one worked very well here on April 14 and the trainer hits with .21% of those making the debut in the claiming ranks. Gets a salty good rider aboard. Ravish (8) is a filly that we have played on numerous occasions to date. Still looking for that elusive win. Ran against softer company last time out, but woke up a tad in that one for a top barn operation. Can’t dismiss even with the bump up in class today. I bet the 3-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta.

5th: 7-1-8-3-2-9-6-5…Strike the Flag (7) ran a good the last two times out when trying the sod down at the Fair Grounds. Moves back to the dirt today and the trainer does hit with .12% of those moving from sprints to routes. This gelding goes for a top owner/breeder in Canada and one of the best people in the business in Neil Howard. A gentleman’s gentleman. This one should be running at the end and did work well over at Churchill Downs on April 17. Red Right Hand (1) is another one that we have touted before, and he has a second and a tiring fourth in just two career starts to date. The third race can be the best for some and the rail post is winning at a 25% clip this meet. The one was the beaten favorite last time out and the trainer scores with .29% of those that come back from being bet down so low. Watch out. Remembering Rita (8) has a third and a second in the last two outs and is another beaten favorite. This trainer hits with .24% of those returning to the races after that happens, and this one picks up HOF rider Gary Stevens in the saddle today. Nice work at Oaklawn Park before departing the great state of Arkansas on April 11. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

6th: 3-9-4-2-7-5-6-10…Love Sick Kitten (3) is the 6-5 ML favorite, and I can see why. This one ran third on debut back in February at GP, and then came back to nearly win the next time out going a 1 mile in the Sunshine State. Nice work at Churchill Downs Training Center on April 3, and this one really looks ready to roll for one of the world’s best riders. Adds up. Heza Kitten (9) is another son of Kitten’s Joy, like the preferred choice above. Faltered late in the last try at Churchill Downs last fall, and the trainer does very well with a return to action. This one is trying very well and the trainer/jock have combined to record a spiffy number of 4-2-1 in the last 10 starts. Burnin Daylight (4) ran a real good one two times back and finished less than 2 lengths behind the now Stakes winner Dragon Drew. Had a very rough trip last time out and now gets a new rider for this one. Training very well for this one — especially on April 5 here. Take note. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then I key the 3 over/under the numbers. 

7th: 3-1-9-10-7-5-2-11…Enrage (3) has been idle in the afternoons since running fourth at Laurel Park the end of January. That was in a Stakes event, though, and she gets back to allowance company today. Before the last race, she had hit the board in three in a row and is working very well, too. Navajo (1) has not been out since last November, but this one is definitely the one to beat if she is ready to roll. The trainer does hit with .13% of those returning from this type of layoff, and does get the services of a top rider. the rail is yielding 30% winners at this distance. Important note. Everyonelovesjimmy (9) ran off to a 9-length victory for the combo of trainer Ian Wilkes and his son-in-law rider Chris Landeros. Before that, she was second by a neck on debut for a barn that rarely hits on the first start. Sharp work on April 14 at Churchill Downs. Could be the real deal. I bet the 3-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

8th: 1-6-10-9-2-5…One Liner (1) gets my Best Bet of the Day designation today. This one ran third, tiring late in the 2018 debut after nearly a year layoff. He won his first three career starts for the Todd Pletcher barn and was a contender for the 2017 Kentucky Derby before being sideline. Looks like he is training superb for this one, and I just don’t see him losing today. Rail post hits with .25% of the time this meet. Bronson (6) ran in seven straight Stakes events last year for trainer Mike Maker, with a record of 1-1-1 in those, with two additional fourths. Had a nice closing run in the 2018 debut last time out in March, and should be better today. Worth using underneath, for sure. Senior Investment (10) has not won a race since getting up in the final strike to nip the great West Coast in the 2017 version of the G3 Lexington Stakes. Ran super to Cloud Computing in the 2017 Preakness Stakes, but has been searching ever since then. May just love this track enough to get up again. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers in the exacta plays.

9th: 10-12-3-2-1-6-7-11-9…Grade 2 Elkhorn Stakes…Itsinthepost (10) was a bit unlucky when drawing this outside post in this spot, but with this journey being 11/2-miles in endurance, he should have plenty of time to find the right spot on the track. It is always difficult to win a Graded Stakes event. It is very difficult to win the same one twice. That is what this one will be trying to do, after capturing this same event last year over Charming Kitten, and Bigger Picture — two really good ones. Going into this race a year ago, Itsinthepost prepped with a nice win in the G2 San Luis Rey at Santa Anita. He did the same this year, winning that Stakes event again, as well. This one has a record of 3-for-4 at this endurance distance, and will be stalking from just off the pace-setters. The one to beat. Hayabusa One (12) has run second to the preferred choice two times in a row, and the total distance is less than a length for both of them. Has a second in his only try at this distance. Call Provision (3) is trained by Chad Brown. Enough written. But…He has a record of 6-3-1 in 13 starts, but was 2-3-0 in just six starts a year ago. This deep closer could be tough to hold off at the end of this one. Oscar Nominated (2) has won over $1.425 million in his career, but has never started over the grass in Lexington. Interesting note, since he is owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, who live just down the road. I bet the 10-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta.

10th: 1-4-3-6-5…Barahin (1) is a first timer for the barn of Kiaran McLaughlin and owner Shadwell Stables. The rail has been golden all meet, producing 30% winners. And, this son of Street Sense is really training well. He may want more ground than the 6 furlongs being offered today, but it will be good to see him run. Rahfee Town (4) is another first timer for a barn that hits with 12% of those making the debut in the MSW ranks. The dam of this one has 7 winners from 9 starters and 1 SW. Super good work here on April 14. Looks ready. Mac Jagger (3) is 10-1 ML odds, and the third first timer that may just turn the first run into a graduation run. Trainer hits with .10% of debut runners and the sire of this one scores with 19% on first timers. Super good work here on April 5. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

Good Luck & All the Best/Gene